Good Monday, everyone. Thanksgiving week is off and running with a mild wind blowing ahead of a cold front ready to sweep through here. That front ushers in colder air with a full-blown mid-winter pattern ready to take shape for the Thanksgiving weekend into the first half of December.

Temps today reach the 60s on a stout southwest flow ahead of our cold front that arrives later tonight. Clouds will thicken with showers quickly developing and rolling from west to east this afternoon and evening. There’s even the chance for a rumble of thunder.

Here are your radars to follow this action in from the west…

This front clears the area early Tuesday with colder winds blowing temps back into the 40s for many. Gusty winds will make it feel colder than that.

Our next storm system develops across the southern Plains on Wednesday and rolls toward us Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day. The exact track of this low still needs some work, but it’s likely to go from west Tennessee to West Virginia then wrapping up off the New England coast.

That kind of track brings rain across Kentucky late on the busy travel day into Thanksgiving with the chance for some flakes or snow showers coming in behind it as cold air surges in Thanksgiving night into Black Friday.

That cold air rolls through the rest of the holiday weekend with a clipper looking system bringing the chance for light snow late Saturday into Sunday.

The NAM only goes out through 7am Thanksgiving but it’s the fastest with our storm system and also shows a period of light snow developing behind the low Thanksgiving morning…

 

The Canadian is a little farther south with this system but sees a few flakes coming in behind it Thanksgiving night into Black Friday. It’s also seeing the weekend clipper snow…

The GFS is slowly coming back to reality but it still has some work to do. The latest run is also starting to see the Thanksgiving Night and Black Friday flakes and it’s also seeing clipper snow threat for the weekend…

The EURO continues to be the strongest and farthest north with the Thanksgiving system. It sees some flakes behind it for Thanksgiving Night and Black Friday and has the weekend clipper…

Temps and wind chills come crashing down from Black Friday through the weekend. Check out the EURO wind chill forecast from 7pm Friday through 7am Monday…

The Canadian has borderline brutal wind chills…

This cold is likely the tip of the iceberg and the pun is intended as the setup later next week into the following weekend may very well turn even colder. The Ensembles have all been showing this for a while and now we find the latest EURO essentially dropping the Polar Vortex into the Great Lakes during that time…

We go beyond the Barney colors for this animation illustrating the cold…

Of course, that may very well be too extreme, but you get the idea of what this pattern is capable of. This is a well-advertised cold period for those who are regular readers and the various ensembles have been leading the charge. This pattern is a stark rebuke to the forecast from seasonal models and marks a major deviation from the patterns of the past several winters.

I’ll have another update later today so check back. Make it a great Monday and take care.