Good Wednesday everyone. A taste of spring weather is in store for the bluegrass state today as readings head into the 60-65 degree range. This is ahead of another wet weather maker that ushers in much colder air for the end of the week and weekend. All of this continues to be part of a gradual pattern change as we head closer to Christmas.
A warm front is surging northward through the state early today and will have a few showers along it. Skies will quickly become partly to mostly sunny as mild air really takes over. Readings in the 60s are likely for many areas.
Current Temps
A stout cold front moves in late tonight into Thursday and will produce widespread rain and even a rumble of thunder. Locally heavy rains will be likely with some areas picking up more than an inch of water. Winds are going to really crank up as the front rolls in from the west.
I still expect the boundary to check up across Tennessee as a wave of low pressure works northeastward along it. The GFS Ensembles have been rock solid with this scenario…
That’s a very cold rain for Friday for many and it’s awfully close to spitting out a mix for some areas by Friday evening and night.
We continue to watch the huge cutoff low forecast to develop over the southwestern part of the country over the next few days. The models are still trying to figure out when and how this thing comes out.
The GFS Ensembles aren’t very impressed with whatever storm it produces…
The GFS is bullish on one storm cutting into the Ohio Valley, while another low forms along the east coast…
Don’t put much stock in what ANY model shows with this system as they will change a lot over the next several days.
The weather heading into Christmas Weekend actually looks interesting and that’s something for us to tackle in the coming days. The whole pattern looks to be changing toward a colder one for the eastern half of the country from Christmas week into the final week of the year. You can see that below…
Euro Ensembles Day 10 500mb Heights
PSD Ensembles 500mb Heights for Christmas 
More updates coming your way later today. Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.
Select Page
I hope “interesting” leads to something other than cold rain and then temps in the 60s. I am very disappointed in our early winter season, but have lived here long enough to know that it can change to cold and snowy in a few hours. Let’s hope so!
MAN IN THE MIRROR is today song.
tx BAILEY.
I think that it is easy to see that the weather will NOT be CHANGING AROUND! That isn’t the BRUTAL COLD that Chris stated was coming! So, anyhow, sometimes I think we look at the models and think THEY are the onese making the weather happen (We get our emotions tied up in what they are predicting (med/long range) and take it and run with it…I honestly dont think this winter will be much in snow and cold!!!!!!!!!
Dec won’t be bad at all, but all eyes better be on January – it is going to hit us like a freight train. bitter cold temps!!!
Chris, Please keep wishing the pattern is going to change…I’m a Big fan of you / blog. But, do you really see a change?
Patience grasshoppers…we’ll get our snow…and Chris will be right on top of it.
Where is everybody? We at least have a shot at a white Christmas! It might be a long shot, but have we all become so pessimistic this early in the season that we are not even going to talk it up for a few days before it busts? I need a fix of the links the regulars often post in an attempt to keep the hype alive!
Because we been there & done that! How many times have we been emotionally drained from bogus models.
Here is how I am going to play it this winter,when all the major models are all on board,then I will began to come a believer of the possibility of a snowfall.
lol speaking of this i have been thinking i hope the 26 or 27th isnt white, but knowing how life is sometimes maybe we will get a white post xmas lol, either way, i think alot of us now realize how old school the past few winter s have been in terms of temperature, but some of our biggest snows came in otherwise mild, rainy winters!
example, 1992-1993, 1997-1998, 2004-2005…all winters in KY featuring major snowstorms that minus those snowstorms were mild winters.
I personally don’t think its a bad deal to have 50s and sun when its not snowing ;), however 30s and drizzle is never fun LOL
stratospheric warming across AK/Siberia and western Canada is still expected in about a week. A few weeks following these events typicaly lead to a -AO and a colder pattern, timing around new years. So far after going off track in Nov, 08-09 may be back in play for an analog which had a cold Jan surrounded by warmth for Dec/Feb.
The pattern is benign now. I’ve put the blinds down at work so I won’t have to think about the nasty blowtorch day today. But big picture, we’re getting the boring stuff out of the way in time for Christmas. Hopefully things will start to fire back up this weekend with the hope other models join in the hallelujah chorus of a cold snap around Christmas Eve. Could use the Christmas miracle of the GFS and its ensembles in consistentharmonious unison as we go down the stretch here…
Hopefully February 2012 is better off than 2009. The good thing about February 2009’s warm spell is it helped melt some of that terrible ice from the January 28-29, 2009 ice storm. I’m actually pulling for a cold, snowy March. Sans 2008, seems there are tough to come by these days…
I am proud of you folks 🙂 You are now REALLY seeing the trends and not getting hopes up on week away outlooks. CB is only posting his thoughts and not committing (nor should he). If he did not do post his rolling thoughts, the blog would be REAL boring.
Still, just because some of us think this winter will be even more wimpy than last winter, does not mean people can not disagree and keep hopes up 🙂
Central KY however is best to keep hopes on the low 😉
Please also note that winter 97/98 was wimpy and Christmas day was around 70 degrees. We then got our last big snow: The Dusting of 98.
That was a loooong time ago.
64*!!! on Dec. 14th! are you kidding me? windows/doors open nice breeze. Hard to believe this time last yr. I had already shoveled and swept snow off the sidewalk several times!! not even once have I done it this yr..:(
but its kind of hard to not like sunny/64 at anytime of the yr. sure isnt Christmas like weather though..
yeah Joe Bastardi has been talking about this for a while now..it appears we may get some UNWELCOME bitter cold sometime in jan/feb..I just hope it has a HUGE SNOWSTORM on the front end so it’ll stick around a while…:)
Do you have the link? Would love to read it. Doesn’t his blog cost money to subscribe to?
yeehawwwww keep it coming, i hope it last all winter… i get so sick of hearing about snowstorms and bitter cold … let it stay warm and sunny any day…. and no the bugs won’t take us over because last winter was cold all of Dec and Jan and the bugs were still around in masses.
If you are so tired of hearing about it, quit listening. This is the best weather blog around. If you want it so warm and sunny, there’s other places to live. I for one hope we get in on some good snows as it has been a long time coming. I love to play golf and love warm weather too but I miss the big one’s from my younger days and around here it can be 70 one day and 30 the next, it’s just part of it. If you don’t like what we talk about, find another blog, say somewhere in Hawaii!!
yeah, its a premium site. the website is http://www.weatherbell.com if your interested though.
here the links to the stratospheric modeling. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f120.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f240.gif
At the end of the 1990s we had strong El Nino episodes. Here, it stayed in the 70s through Christmas. It was mild all Winter. I wore a t-shirt to walk to classes. Then in March a horrible severe weather season ensued. Some of you would never survive those warm, snowless Winter months. Lol
SO far this winter reminds of 92/93 winter, we had warm 60,70 degree weather all the way until mid FEB. After that we had several winter storms & cold thru march. Snow will show up but it might be late.
today song is
TENNEESEEEEEEEE by ARESSTED DEVELOPMENT
on weather
XMAS SUNDAY thru first of year has a CHANCE buit fact is guys and gals it takes a MIRACLE to get a real SNOW sas u all know.
when i was little late 70s threu 80s I just dont remember being a FENCE hugger like us in KY have been last 10 plus years. we just had change of pattern that might not change back in my liftime, but could change next year.
remember regular winters off what u call today big snows on top of snow with below zero temps. it wasnt rare it was common.
there thousands and thousands kids that have no clue what a REAL WINTER is and Im afraid they aint going see it no time soon.
honestly I like weather like today and am fine with mild winters, who wants to bve without power ETC with a 15 plus inch of snow.
fact is when we ever DO GET A OLD SCHOOL again im not sure people tyhat on here crying etc will be saying YIPPIE GIVEM MMME OLD SCHOOL.
I would like to remember and a relive just one though, when its SHUT DOWN and I and u can own our own county. man nothing like getting out going dowen the main drag in driving SNOWFALL with over 16 17 inches on ground with more to come.
The only thing that would get me through it is the hope of a great severe weather season. lol
Is the extreme severe weather caused by the cold air finally dumping out of Canada during spring?
I’m loving the weather today. Took the day off to finish up the rest of the outside farm repairs before the good stuff hits. Then I’ll be ready for whatever comes.
The website Snowday says we’re gonna get a major Winter storm around the 7th of January. I hope we get some snow before then.
I’m actually encouraged to see a dull and boring late Nov and Dec. Seen a few years where it was freezing Nov, Dec only to warm up Jan and Feb. Still a long way to go so there is still hope, yet 10 + years of dissapointment (Central ky) is a lot of history. As for the GFS, even 1 day out I will look out my window that next morning to see the real weather.
64 degrees here at my house, I’m loving it, bring on the sunshine!!!! Looks like Kentucky isn’t going get any snow this year. YEAH YEAH YEAH. ITs going be mild rainy winter : )
Mr Sun, Isn’t funny how snow junkies attack us for loving the sunshine and warm weather. If you ask me, thats kinda nutty. But Im with you, i love the warm temps. I pray it stays warm and nice outside, Gotta love springtime weather in the middle of December : )
MUHA HA HA HA !!!!!!!!…. I got your number sunshine, mr.sun or CHILDREN OF THE (( HEATMIZER ))!! HIMSELF…YOUR warm,sunny days are numbered my friends…the sled is loaded, the tracks are laid, and ready or not Im headed south…and Im gonna catch ya with ya speedo’s and flip-flops on and then we’ll see whose sunny and warm then…..HA HA HA AHAHAHHHAHAH HA!! :B
First of all Tim, I’m not Mr Sunshine. and I remember you from the past. You actually tried to go out on a date with me, But I turned you down. and Why do you snow junkies feel the need to attack people that love nice warm weather. IF you ask me, that nutty.
http://stormtrack9.freedomblogging.com/2011/12/13/longer-range-outlook-toward-christmas-day/15015/
anybody know when the southeast ridge will go away and we get a -NAO
I must have missed the attack, seemed like nice playfulness by a snow lover
Hope it switches up soon. The NWS forecast shows normal to slightly above normal for the 7 day. I just don’t want to end up the 14th winter in a row with no major snow…
It has a little more to do with the position of the jet stream and the overall atmospheric flow during those patterns.
I’m not coming off my winter thoughts just yet. But I will say, day after day I’m looking through the upper level charts and it’s starting to worry me a little. It just doesn’t look like that cold air in Canada is going to be dislodged anytime before Christmas. Possibly the end of the month or into January.. but as of today there is no bitter cold or snowy pattern to be found for the southeast. Sigh.. Sorry folks. Keep those t-shirts handy.
I don’t want to hop on the sad train just yet. I don’t see a sustained nao on any of the models but it looks to be, along with the AO, near neutral in the near future.
With an active subtropical jet, and if the PNA ridge builds in, we will get cold, with moderate warm ups in between. Models are showing a steady diet of energy ejecting from the southwest, and impulses coming down from western Canada. So it’s not ALL BAD from where I’m standing. Chris, feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.
I think at the very least have something to track between the 23rd and New Years. I don’t that’s too bold of a prediction. An up and down roller coaster pattern is better than being locked on the down (warm) side! Love to hear your thoughts…
My hope is that the models will continue to show the SE ridge retrograding out into the Atlantic lately and cold air moving over most of the Eastern US around Christmas Eve/Christmas timeframe.
Again, I agree with your thoughts here. I was looking at some NAO and AO verification scores today from the models and they have been AWFUL. Looking at the long term AO and NAO graphics, one can see that both the AO and NAO have only gone negative TWICE since late September. On the other hand, all the models have been falsely predicting the return of a -AO and -NAO pattern. I see some hope on the horizon though…
…and by hope on the horizon…There are certain pieces that may come together in the next week or so that could result in a pattern change. Yeah, I know, we’ve all said that before. I think these pieces mean a little more here and we could finally be on to something. However, this would likely not occur until after Christmas.