Good Thursday, everyone. It’s a cold and windy day across Kentucky as we continue with an active pattern. This pattern continues to give us temp ups and downs, but a change toward colder is likely in the days leading up to Christmas. Can we get some snow during this cold snap?
Speaking of cold, wind chills out there this morning range from the high single digits in the north to mid-teens in the south. These low wind chills fade into a seasonable brand of cold with highs in the 30s under a mix of sun and clouds.
Temps return to the 40s by Friday as we get set for a rainmaker to push in late Saturday into Sunday. That will then be followed up by another rain maker later Monday into Tuesday as colder air comes in behind that…
From there, we watch a more significant system that may impact our weather later next week with another dropping in behind it as the pattern goes back to cold. The Canadian Model has had one of the hottest hands you will ever see from any model as it has been well ahead of all other models with the snows of the past several weeks.
The winter signal from the Canadian continues to show up later next week…
Check out the cold weather with that setup…
The respective biases of the GFS and EURO are both coming into play with how they handle the setup later next week.
The GFS is in its typical progressive and too far east mode…
Again, slow the model down and shift everything west and it’s the starting point.
On the flipside, the EURO is having trouble with energy ejecting from the southwest, which is a major bias of the model. Still, it’s trying…
The AI version of the EURO has been all over this potentially cold and wintry setup late next week into the start of Christmas week. It has been showing several cold shots with the chance for a couple of winter weather makers…
If you want a White Christmas, you have to have the cold in place first and foremost and that’s what the AI is seeing…
Remember this run of the GFS Ensembles from just a few days ago…
I called it out as BS at the time. The same GFS Ensembles now look like this…
I love it when a model plan comes together. ha
I’ll hook you up with updates later today so check back. Until then, make it a good one and take care.
Have you noticed that searching with Google now gives an AI synopsis from Google as the #1 response? The allure of the AI-label suggests “look no further.” Except that in one instance after another, there’s an underlying bias. It’s inconsequential sometimes but glaring at others. Anything having to do with weather or the environment is a good example. It’s clear the impact of AI is going to be seismic (and positive) going forward, but it’s not going to mean we can put our brains in neutral.
You’re right about AI becoming pervasive and in some areas it’s becoming downright invasive. Several social media sites have even started using AI to consolidate comments, the idea being why poke through a blizzard of comments when AI can deliver a prepackaged consensus. To that I say thanks but no thanks.
Where AI may show some benefit is by using it as the front-end to forecast models, such as what the Euro model is doing. Maybe it can help wring some sense out of the chaos we’ve seen lately from the GFS.
It’s a very frigid morning here in the Chicago area, with a temp of 5 above here in the SW Suburbs and a gusty West wind producing a wind chill of 12 below zero. Very impressive to get this cold so early in the season, especially with no snow on the ground, as our much below normal December continues.
It’s a pretty dramatic shift in the pattern, as we are coming off our third warmest Fall (September, October, November) ever for the Chicago area. Hopefully we’ll be seeing some significant snows in the next few weeks, and CB’s computer models show some hope.