Good Thursday everyone. Many areas got in on some snow Wednesday afternoon and evening, but not to the extent that was possible. Rain to snow situations are always tough to forecast and this one was no different. This is my winter weather forecasting weak spot and something I need continue to get better at.
What’s next up for us?
The next few days will be chilly ones with high temps today and Friday generally around the low 40s for most areas. Clouds will increase Friday as a cold front swings in from the northwest. This may touch off a few light snow showers and flurries into friday night into early Saturday.
The big news will be the shot of cold air diving in here. This is the coldest air mass so far as we go well below normal for a few days. Check out the temps from the NAM…
Temps Saturday will generally run in the low 30s after starting out the day around 20. Some upper teens may be with us Sunday morning with afternoon highs hitting the upper 30s and low 40s under partly to mostly sunny skies.
Our unsettled weather pattern looks to continue into next week. There is likely to be a very sharp north to south temperature gradient setting up shop across the country. This may put us right back into the mix for more rain and snow action at times with the fence setting up across the region.
The GFS Ensembles offer up a perfect illustration of this…
Yippee… can’t wait for those forecasting headaches. 
On a side note… check out this snow pic from one of my viewers in Beckley, WV last night…
That’s a stop sign plastered with heavy, wet snow. If you’re wondering… yes I did get their snow forecast right. 
Have a great Thursday and take care.
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haha well CB I am now in lex for the holidays and you nailed it here, you said 1” or LESS and we got less 🙂 funny how ppl b!tch about snow in their backyard these things are always a matter of just miles from alot to nothing and just cloudy skies.
My cousin in Harrisonburg,VA prob got hammered with snow.
Well, the good news is since the air is colder, we KNOW we do not have to worry about precipitation 😉 RIMSHOT!
Just for entertainment purposes, yesterday the GFS showed a blizzard in the OH valley for Christmas Eve. Well, that is gone and now the latest run has a southern branch system that has ice/snow storm written all over it. 😉 I love it. I would love to see that prediction pan out and bring a white Christmas.
“This may put us right back into the mix for more rain and snow action at times with the fence setting up across the region”
I do believe that will some winter up for us Fencetucky folks. It’s what’s for winter.
Given the heavy flows of moisture and dominance of warm air along with it this year, seems we would be more on the ice side and have a crystal & dark Christmas.
I will pass 🙂
Keep us posted!
morning, tx CB.. and the cold air coming as u predicted. man it got cold last nite car was seriously froze over.
could get inntersting around XMAS.
“Are you Serious Clark” …. Common, why are you looking that far ahead…we can’t predict two days out!!! But it would be nice for a white christmas (but we you see a trend you got to stay with it (ON THE FENCE TREND–mostly means rain, then 1 inch snow–Im with you on that BubbaG)
The predictability of the placement of the fence never ceases to amaze me. Next week it will be north of 64 providing central ky with another dousing of cold rain. After that the fence probably sets up east of 75 with the same results.
It is still early, I am not giving up. But If it always comes down to a border war this winter we will lose the majority of the battles.
I clearly said this was for entertainment purposes only. But it is interesting that we see something going on in the OH valley on most runs of the model around Christmas weekend. Will have to keep watching and see what future runs do with that upper air pattern next week. We need freezing surface air already established prior to cyclogenesis southwest of us in order to put down a good snow here and in this La Nina pattern that’s going to be difficult to do.
I say lets start focusing in on that entertainment storm…because its about the only excitment going on weatherwise!..and the GFS snowfall maps for the week prior to CHristmas really look impressive from TEXAS to WEST VA. showing at least 6-12″ of snow from West tn. thru. most of KY.!! so, let the fun and games begin..and someone PLEASE TAKE A BULLDOZER AND KNOCK THAT STINKIN ROTTEN WEATHER FENCE DOWN!!! I HATE THAT THING…example: snow/30 in paducah, and sunshine/60 here in e.ky.!!
or snow/25 in cincy, and freezing rain/28 here in e.ky!…we want SNOW ACROSS THE BOARD…. :)…
YEAH…I know WISHFUL THINKIN!!!
Commom intersect point: Central KY.
Meant “sum” and not “some”.
Ewwww stop the ice talk…. I have to drive on the Slyder/Snyder Christmas Eve and it is a nightmare when we get ice…. grrrr
teleconnection pattern, MJO etc minus these few days of cold favors a continued overall normal to warm and wet pattern for the rest of the month.
next system mid week cuts into the lakes a secondary system forms further southeast around the 18th along the old front from the mid week system which will be the next system to watch.
Outside of a big snowstorm the next 7 days seem to be the best possible winter weather. Sunny, 30s and 40s for highs, and cool nights. I’d rather have this type of weather than 40 degree rain to snow any time.
Our luck in this area gives us to options for such a system. Cold enough for snow but moisture stays south, or we get the moisture, as rain! Trying to hold out hope for a decent winter but this pattern has me fearing only snow we see is in the form of low moisture, fast moving clippers.
yea i plan on sticking around for a while … maybe even warm things up a little … how would 60 degree in December sound ??
Approaching mid December and much of the area has yet to see any pure snow flakes. This does not bold well for a snowy winter. Last season I seen the first flakes around mid November.
Your are correct–Entertainment purposes, its just I’m not sure why we look so far in advance and want to think whats going to happen. Even Chris has been barking up the COLDTRAIN idea for awhile. this next several days its going to be upper 30’s and 40,,,thats not what I call the COLDTRAIN…….Anyhow, I can sit here without any computer models or that much knowledge about weather and say its going to be getting colder and chance of snow or maybe a cold rain in the next few weeks and I would be Correct….But yes, I understand it is for entertainment purposes, At least we can Dream of a white christmas
http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2011/2011-2012-winter-outlook
Not a big fan of this forecast! All it is an average, typical La Nina map with about zero alterations. I miss the older winter forecasts that came out in October…
I live in one of the Nashville suburbs, we had a mere trace of snow in December 2009. But sure enough in January & February, we had a ton of snow (18″ in some spots over 6 weeks – good for our standards). All hope is not lost yet. Keep in mind that this month will average out 0-1 degree above normal for the month and that qualifies as seasonal. Can’t complain unless you have a bonafide blowtorch pattern firmly entrenced…that’s just my two cents…
12z run shows weaker storm than previous and further south 0n 17-18th which shows 3-6″ snow for tn. and east ky..nothing in central and west ky…so the wagon train begins…
from Belskis blog..on snowfall
looks like a trend to me!!
Updated Thursday at 1:00 PM…. Jonesboro, Arkansas has had 5 inches of snow so far this season. That’s more than their average snow for the entire winter which is 4.8 inches.
Let’s compare season snow totals so far with some much snowier climates….
Jonesboro has had more snow than……
Des Moines, Iowa: their total is 4.3″
Boston: 1.0″
Buffalo: 0.4″
Green Bay, Wisconsin: 3.0″
Chicago: trace
South Bend, Indiana: trace (their season average is 67″)
Pittsburgh: 1.6″
Cleveland: 1.1″
Congratulations to Jonesboro
I could not agree more. Sorry, but this LaNina pattern is what we’ve been dealt up to now.
Clipper to the north could lay down a nice coating of snow for northern KY Friday nite/Sat morning, Chris any chance this accumulates a little in Central KY?
I know sounds desperate!
How is it that it snows SOUTH of us, moves thru KY as cold rain, then changes back to snow as soon as it crosses the state line? I’m starting to ask myself why I moved here. Sigh.
yea this front bring cold air going lay down coating to MAYBE more for northern ky.
if track little further south the engery that is then some in central s could, but look far northern ne has best chance. BAILY mention light snow in his tweet.
to be honest sound great if only XMAS weekend to new years be att least cold for the holiday mood and cloudy. dont cxare if it doesnt snow even though models says yes.
have good day MR SUN.
The CPC just came out with there updated winter forecast it has the Ohio Valley above normal temps and much above normal precip.
Yeah, I noticed that too. I posted the link up at 1:45 PM..
Does not seem we have busted out of the fence rut, so for me, that is constant that needs considering.
If the word “fence”us mentioned in CB’s forecast, count on NOTHING until snow is past your ankles. Seriously.
I respectfully suggest that if the word “fence”is in Chris’s forecasts, count on nothing as far as snow. Less disappointment.
I expect the veterans of the blog to be more cynical/skeptical, but we need to be careful raining on the new bloggers hopes. No pun intended with the raining. Maybe it was.
Simply put, the systems move into KY and they get Tboned with either warm or dry air. Kentucky has for along time now become a fence for winter systems. Some in Kentucky get lucky, but depends on if the fence aligns to I64 or I75. Uncanny, but appears the standard convention.