Good Monday, everyone. We are just about to wrap up 2024 and kick off 2025 and we’re doing so with a pattern that’s changing in a hurry. This change brings in a full-blown winter pattern that looks to be a harsh one for much of the country through much of January.
Lingering showers wind down out there today with temps back into the 50s.
Our next system quickly zips in here for the last day of the year on Tuesday. Gusty winds and showers are likely through the day as low pressure zips across the region. Much colder winds then kick in on New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day with the chance for snow showers and flurries to kick off 2025. All of this shows up very well on the future radar from the Hi Res NAM. This animation starts tonight and ends at 7am New Year’s Morning…
Gusty winds combine with crashing temps to make for a blustery New Year’s Eve with wind chills hitting the 20s as the ball drops. Check out the wind chill forecast from 7am Tuesday through 7am Wednesday…
A few flurries and snow showers across the central and east will continue New Year’s Day with temps in the 30s.
Thursday is a cold day as we wait on a weak system to drop in from the northwest with a band of light snow Thursday night and Friday. This may put down light accumulations for some. The GFS has the best chance across the central and east…
The Canadian has this as a two-parter with some light snow also showing up Friday night and Saturday…
That will be followed up by the first potential winter storm to impact our region so far this winter. This comes late in the weekend and early next week as frigid temps pour into the country and low pressure ejects out of the Rockies and rolls eastward. Exactly where does this low go and how strong is it? Those are the two big questions of the week.
The forecast models continue to bounce around with what to do with this system, but we should start seeing them coming into agreement in a few days. Right now, we have the GFS and EURO both seeing a strong storm system that rolls toward us before transferring energy to a low along the east coast. How far that low gets into our region is the difference between snow, freezing rain, rain or all of the above.
The scenario on the GFS and EURO would be a snow and ice to rain to snow…
GFS
EURO
The Canadian model continues with a more suppressed look…
Again, DO NOT get caught up with any one model run right now. They won’t settle on a solution until later in the week.
Arctic air comes in behind that system with more snow threats likely.
To illustrate the craziness of this pattern, we find the ensembles and Euro Weeklies showing the potential for snow as far south as… Mexico and Florida…
I’ll have updates later today so check back. Until then, let’s track some leftover showers…
Have a great Monday and take care.
I vote no snow.
The WINDS yesterday! There can’t be many dead twigs and small branches left in our trees, because we now have a bumper crop lying on the ground and hung up in bushes and understory trees. Good thing today will be a nice day for working outside.
Over the past 24 hours we picked up 1¼ inches of rain in central Warren County. We were spared the worst of the wind, recording a peak gust yesterday of 20mph. The likely staying power of the cold air waiting in the wings is making it look more and more like a “Stretched Polar Vortex” intrusion. The potential for ice is what worries me, although if the push of cold air lives up to its expectations, it is likely that we’ll see those pink and orange precip colors get pushed further south…hopefully.