Good Tuesday and Happy New Year’s Eve. Gusty winds are blowing across Kentucky for this final day of the year as we get set for winter to do a serious flex. It’s a harsh winter pattern taking shape for much of January and it gets started with snow showers on day one with a significant winter storm possible Sunday and Monday.

Winds today may reach 40mph to 45mph at times as a potent low spins through the Ohio Valley. Gusty showers will also be noted and there’s even the chance for a rumble of thunder early today. Cold air quickly filters in from the west and northwest this afternoon and evening as temps fall into the 30s for New Year’s Eve.

Gusty showers may mix with some snowflakes during that time. Northwest winds on New Year’s Day will then spit out snow showers and flurries with the chance for a hit and run coating in a couple spots.

These snow showers show up well on the HRRR Future Radar from 7pm this evening through 7pm New Year’s Day…

The next system arrives with light snow Thursday night into Friday and should put down a light snowfall for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Here’s a look at the areas with the best chance of seeing snow on the ground during this time…

Right now, I’m thinking coatings to 1″ of snow, but some of the models are showing the potential for a touch more.

The GFS has latched on to our system very well…

Here’s the GFS snowfall forecast through Friday night…

The Canadian Model snowfall through the same time…

And the EURO…

Frigid temps come in behind this system and that takes our wind chills way down from late Friday into the weekend. Weekend morning wind chills will flirt with 0 at times.

This animation shows the wind chill numbers from Noon Friday through 8am Saturday…

The wind chills from 9am Saturday through 7am Sunday…

In terms of the late Sunday and Monday Winter Storm Potential, I have no real changes on the setup as the signal for a storm system has been there for days. It’s all about where the low tracks and until that’s fully known, I’m keeping much of our region in an area I call the Battle Zone…

That’s the area where heavy snow and a significant wintry mix/ice would be possible as this storm rolls through the region. Behind it would come arctic cold and widespread lighter snows.

What we may very well be looking at is a scenario where one low works toward the Lower Appalachian Mountains before transferring energy to another low along the east coast. This is what most models have suggested from time to time and it’s what the EURO is going wild with on the latest run.

As is, this run of the EURO is a worst-case scenario for our region and it’s one we want no part of. Heavy snow to heavy freezing rain back to snow with winds gusting to 35mph is ugly…

Again, that’s just one run so don’t get too caught up in it because I assure you the models still aren’t ready to settle in on a solution and will change, sometimes wildly, from run to run.

That said, the Canadian isn’t too dissimilar from the EURO except for being a bit slower…

The GFS went from being the farthest north model to being the farthest south. This run is mainly a snow maker for Kentucky with the ice potential into the Tennessee Valley…

Normally, I would say this is the progressive bias of the GFS at play, but I can see a scenario where the cold high to our north flexes enough for a more southern tracking storm.

Again, this is likely to become our first Winter Storm THREAT of the year with the details to be ironed out later in the week.

Bitterly cold temps and additional snow threats show up behind this next week into the following week as this harsh winter pattern really does some work on much of the country. For the past few weeks, I’ve been trying to get folks attention to the potential hardship this setup can bring to much of the country, and now most of the rest of the weather community is on board with this. It’s all about taking care of the people!

I will have your normal updates later today. As always, I have you all set to track today’s weather…

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.