Good afternoon, everyone. I have no changes to my overall thought process as a powerful winter storm blasts our region Sunday and Monday. This will bring significant amounts of snow, sleet and freezing rain to much of Kentucky.
Our Winter Storm Watch has been expanded to include northern Kentucky but not eastern Kentucky…
Kudos to the NWS offices who are being proactive in getting these watches out well in advance. I have no idea what the NWS offices in Jackson and Charleston, WV are waiting on. Please do not give the people in these regions a false sense of security that this storm will miss them.
The model trends of sinking this system farther south continue and they are coming into line with the track I outlined days ago. I expected the low to go from near Memphis to near Pikeville and then into southern West Virginia.
This is not some cutting area of low pressure… It’s a bowling ball that’s going only slightly north of due east. The blocking to our north won’t allow for this low to cut northward.
The Canadian and Short Range Canadian Models are in lock step with one another and have been incredibly consistent…
Here are the snow numbers from the short range Canadian…
The ice storm potential is across the southern half of the state…
Look at all that sleet…
Here’s the Canadian snowfall map…
The freezing rain map also shows an ice storm across the southern half of the state…
And this also shows a big time sleet event…
The new EURO should be out soon, but the last run of the model from early this morning looks pretty spot on to the Canadian family of models…
Here’s the snowfall map from the EURO…
The EURO also shows the ice storm setting up across the southern half of Kentucky…
The sleet isn’t as prominent and that’s why the snow forecast is higher on the EURO than the Canadian…
The GFS corrected the silly jump to the northwest and is slowly but surely marching farther south to line up better with the EURO and Canadian…
The snowfall map from the GFS…
The freezing rain is also edging farther south with each run…
And the sleet…
The GFS and NAM are both sinking south with each run as they slowly see less and less warm air advection ahead of this low. I warned you that would be the case as the American Models historically have a bias of overdoing this.
I will hopefully have a First Call for Ice and Snowfall coming your way on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and then here on KWC with a few more updates later today.
Until then, let’s track the snow showers and flurries putting down hit and run coatings this afternoon…
Have a fantastic Friday and take care.
Terrible trends for Southern Kentucky today
Winter Storm Watch has been extended to include Logan; Warren; Simpson; Allen; Barren; Monroe; Metcalfe; Adair; Russell; Cumberland and Clinton Counties.
I’m really concerned about damage to some of the major power transmission lines, especially those at higher altitudes, and their potential to cause outages in areas further to the south and west.
Thanks Chris. I think the NWS should have issued a High Wind Warning this afternoon. It’s really blowing like crazy now. Just the wind along will take out the power in my rural area. Wish we had natural gas so we could have a whole house generator. You might say there’s propane, but propane will burn too Hot. Looks like I’m up a creek without a paddle. I made it through the 2009 Ice Storm, but I was in better health back then. This looks to be a worse Ice Storm, because the duration and the frigid Arctic air to follow. We shall see how this all plays out, but I have a really bad feeling about this one Folks. What happened to the Winters of the past, where we would have a beautiful widespread Snowstorm ???
Take Care Everyone !
La Nina combined with a Polar Vortex intrusion plays by a set of rules that differs from a typical La Nina winter. That strong push of colder air undercutting a moist southerly flow has trouble written all over it.
Jackson just issued a Winter Storm Watch for there area Charleston has a winter weather advisory up into Logan County
Read there forecast earlier before the watch..They are thinking some snow then ice before changing to all rain then snow..Maybe they changed there mind haven’t read but that was odd going all rain..
I will join the concern over the Ice in southern and southeast Ky I do have a propane heater but have never used and really don’t know how is it simple to use???? I shall learn I guess. I am hoping for more snow then ice but not looking good the ice is very concerning!