Good Saturday, everyone. We have a wicked next few days ahead of us as snow and bitterly cold temps blow back into the Bluegrass state. All of this crashes in behind a slow-moving arctic front moving in from west to east today and tonight.

Our Winter Storm THREAT continues for the eastern half of Kentucky tonight and Sunday for the potential of some areas picking up on 4″ or a little more of snow.

I like the snowfall forecast I already have out…

Here’s a quick breakdown:

  • Rain rolls across the state today as our arctic front moves in.
  • A rapid temp drop takes place behind this front this evening and this may ice things up pretty good.
  • A wave of low pressure develops along the arctic front just to our east and southeast by Sunday morning.
  • Snow develops from southwest to northeast late tonight and early Sunday. This snow will be heaviest across the east and southeast.
  • A few to several inches of snow will be possible across central and eastern Kentucky, especially.
  • As the steady snows exit the east late Sunday afternoon, snow showers and squalls kick in from the northwest.
  • Winds will be gusty Sunday into Sunday night, and we may even see some blowing snow.
  • This will be a high impact travel event, even for areas only getting in on coatings of snow.
  • Temps absolutely tank late Sunday into Sunday night and will be near 0 by Monday morning.
  • Wind chills will be in the danger category and can reach -10 to -15 during this time.
  • Brutally cold temps last through Wednesday with lows that can reach 0 or below and wind chills at -10 or colder at times.
  • Sunday and Monday are just absolutely harsh winter days.

I expect Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories to go up for much of the region fairly early today. Here’s a look at whatever is issued…

The forecast models are doing what we thought they would do and are now looking more and more like the Canadian Models.

I think the latest Canadian Models look better than they did before in terms of snowfall placement and amounts.

Here’s the Short Range Canadian…

The “Daddy” Canadian…

The GFS barely had anything two days ago then started showing snow in the southeast on Friday. It continues to expand totals toward the west and will likely continue to do that today. Here’s the latest GFS…

The NAM has been the absolute worst forecast model of the winter, It’s trying to get to where it needs to be…

The HRRR has some issues as well, but it’s trying…

The EURO continues to be the model with the least amount of snow…

Wind chills are a MAJOR story Sunday night and Monday. As temps near 0 in many areas, gusty winds will make it feel much colder. Wind chill numbers Sunday night and Monday morning will reach -10 to -15 at times for many…

Expect a Cold Weather Advisory to be issued areawide for this.

What do we do with the major winter storm rolling across the deep south Tuesday and Wednesday? Does this come far enough north to bring some snow in here? The Canadian has been going back and forth on the idea, but the latest run certainly brings some light snow into Kentucky…

It also has the system behind it being rather tame for us.

The GFS didn’t even have this southern storm a few days ago, so I’m not sure how much stock we should put in it. It does show a system staying well south but then shows the system swinging in from the northwest bringing snow later in the week…

I will have updates throughout the day. Until then, let’s track some rain for the first time in weeks…

Make it a great Saturday and take care.