Good evening, folks. It’s a Winter Storm THREAT for the eastern half of Kentucky Saturday night and Sunday. A few to several inches of snow will be possible along and ahead of a brutally cold air mass moving into the region for much of next week.

A Winter Storm THREAT simply means there’s the potential of 4″ of snow or more from a single storm system. If my confidence increases, this will become a Winter Storm ALERT.

Here’s the First Call for Snowfall from our latest round of harsh winter weather…

Of course, I will make adjustments to that tonight into Saturday as this storm comes into better focus.

Here’s a quick breakdown:

  • Rain develops tonight and rolls into Saturday as our arctic front moves in.
  • A rapid temp drop takes place behind this front Saturday evening and this may ice things up pretty good.
  • A wave of low pressure develops along the arctic front just to our east and southeast.
  • Snow develops from southwest to northeast late Saturday night and early Sunday. This snow will be heaviest across the east and southeast.
  • A few to several inches of snow will be possible across central and eastern Kentucky, especially.
  • As the steady snows exit the east late Sunday afternoon, snow showers and squalls kick in from the northwest.
  • Winds will be gusty Sunday into Sunday night and we may even see some blowing snow.
  • Temps absolutely tank late Sunday into Sunday night and will be near 0 by Monday morning.
  • Wind chills will be in the danger category and can reach -10 to -15 during this time.
  • Brutally cold temps last through Wednesday with lows that can reach 0 or below and wind chills at -10 or colder at times.

As far as the models go, the late day runs continue to inch closer to what the Canadian has been showing all along. The afternoon run of the short range Canadian stands firm…

The NAM went from showing absolutely no storm to jumping toward the Canadian family…

You can clearly see it trending that direction.

The HRRR only goes through 1pm Sunday, but it jumped right in line with the Canadians…

The RAP only goes through 7pm Sunday and shows some Canadian love…

The GFS continues to see this system better, but it continues to most of the snow in the east and southeast…

The EURO is now the only model not showing much. It has a 1″-3″ snowfall across the east…

With the brutal cold and wind coming in behind this system, even an inch of snow will have a major impact on travel.

As I mentioned, wind chills continue to look brutal Sunday night and Monday. Watch how nasty these wind chills get to start our MLK Holiday…

Short Range Canadian

EURO

NAM

The mid-week southern winter storm continues to look like the bulk of it stays to our south, but it bears watching. The system dropping in behind that also bears watching by later Thursday and Friday…

I’ll update as needed and I’ll return with your full update later tonight. Until then, let’s track some rain in from the west…

Enjoy the evening and take care.