Good afternoon, everyone. While we are melting snow and ice today, another harsh winter pattern is about to crash into the region. This will bring rain and crashing temps for Saturday with a snowfall possible Saturday night and Sunday. All that is followed up by the coldest temps of the winter, so far.
Showers push in here later tonight and Saturday, so we get a free car wash. As temps crash quickly from west to east Saturday evening, we need to watch for a quick freeze-up of all the moisture out there.
Low pressure develops along the arctic front as it slides just to our east. Exactly where this happens is the determining factor on snow or no snow where you live. The intensity of this low is then the determining factor on how much snow you get, if you’re in the snow area.
As of now, I think much of central and eastern Kentucky has a shot to put, at least, some snow on the ground. Here’s a look at the areas I’m watching…
The models are slowly trending toward what the Canadian Models have been showing for the past several days. Among those trending is the GFS…
Here’s the local view…
That run of the GFS spits out several inches of snow across eastern and southeastern Kentucky…
That model has been trending west and heavier over the past few days.
A trend like that would bring it more in line with what the Canadian family still shows.
Here’s the Short Range Canadian…
The snowfall on that is expansive…
The daddy of the short range is the full blown Canadian…
Looks very similar to the short range for snowfall…
The Canadians now have a running mate in the RAP. This is a short range model only goes through 1pm Sunday but has a healthy accumulating snowfall similar to the Canadians…
The NAM and EURO haven’t wanted any part of this system from the start, but they’re coming around to, at least, some snow. Here’s the snowfall map from the EURO…
The NAM…
As you can see, we are likely to put some snow on the ground. The question becomes how much and that’s a question I hope to answer later today or tonight. I may even go with a Winter Storm THREAT at any point today. I’m close right now.
Brutally cold temps come in Sunday night and Monday with lows that can go below zero and wind chills in the dangerous category. Wind chills of -10 or colder will be possible and the models are in agreement on this…
Similar numbers show up for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
All this bitter cold means our southern storm track may stay well to the south, bringing snow and ice down to the Gulf Coast. Can this still impact us? Yes, but it has some work to do.
Here’s the GFS…
The Canadian…
I’ll have updates later today. Have a great one and take care.