Good Friday, folks. We are rolling into the weekend on a better weather note with some melting of our nearly two week old snow and ice pack. Once into the weekend, things change quickly as another harsh winter pattern takes control of our region.
Cold air surges in behind an arctic front arriving Saturday with the real deal bitter cold coming Sunday night and Monday.
Can we get some snow to introduce the bitterly cold air? That’s certainly a possibility, but it’s not a certainty as we have quite the model fight currently in progress. It all boils down to whether or not we get a wave of low pressure to develop far enough west along the arctic front. The farther west and stronger we get this thing, the better the chances for snow across Kentucky.
The Canadian Models have not blinked on this having a big impact on our weather with the latest Short Range Canadian Model showing a massive winter storm impacting areas from the Tennessee Valley to New England…
Here’s what that looks like across Kentucky…
Of course, the big daddy Canadian is similar to its offspring above…
That would be several inches of snow blanketing most of Kentucky.
The EURO is slowly looking more and more like the Canadian in showing a significant winter storm in the eastern US…
Here’s how that same run looks for Kentucky…
On the flip side of all this is the NAM, which really doesn’t show any kind of storm anywhere in the east and only has some light snows in eastern Kentucky…
I feel pretty confident anyone east of the Mississippi River can dismiss the NAM since it is the only model without a storm system.
Even the GFS is seeing our storm system, even if it’s likely too far east and too fast with it all…
Here’s what that run looks like across Kentucky…
That would be good for a few to several inches of snow in the southeast.
Regardless of snow or no snow on Sunday, our temps get brutally cold Sunday night into Monday. Lows by Monday can reach 0 or below with wind chills possibly reaching -10 or colder. That’s actually something all models agree on for Monday morning…
Beyond this comes a major winter storm across the south and, potentially, up the east coast. Can this come far enough north and west to impact our weather by Tuesday and Wednesday? Maybe.
The Canadian goes absolutely bonkers with this storm…
You can see how the system following that by Thursday and Friday is more of a clipper.
The GFS has been showing very little in the way of a storm on the first system and was, instead, blowing up the system behind it Thursday and Friday. This is now starting to change as the GFS slowly goes toward the Canadian solution…
We have a long way to go before we know for sure if either of those systems will impact our weather. Heck, we still have to figure out how much of an impact we get from the Sunday system.
I’ll have all the updates you can handle later today. Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.
The Canadian will be wrong.
With all that, wouldn’t be surprised to see a few flakes and a few days of coldness. This sunshine makes one think we’re emerging from the bleak midwinter. Spring is around the corner.
The other day I saw the visible satellite over clear skies and you could clear see snow on the ground… what struck me was a lot of Wis and MN didn’t have snow on the ground.. I looked up the climate data for Minneapolis… they’ve only had just over 9 inches of snow total so far??? I thought that place was a GIVEN for snow no matter what the signals were… I guess even if up north if the storm track misses you that can happen.. I’m sure sure random big storm will come along for them soon.