Good Sunday to one and all. Thunderstorms have been rather common across the bluegrass state over the past several weeks. That’s a trend that shows no signs of coming to an end. If anything, it’s going to try to ramp up over the next few weeks. I dub this… the summer of storms.
Tropical air has engulfed our region and will continue through the upcoming week, before a big change blows in by next weekend.
The short term will feature temps in the mid and upper 80s across the east with low 90s in the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours. Any boomer that goes up could become severe and put down torrential rains.
Here’s regional radar to track the action…
The same thing will play out again on Monday and Tuesday.
Thermometers will try to hit 90 or a little better across the entire state by Wednesday or Thursday. That’s when we need to keep an eye on the northwestern sky for some big clusters of thunderstorms to impact our region. The GFS shows this action developing on the front of the real heat…
That action may intensify by Thursday night and Friday as a strong cold front swings in from the northwest…
That could lead to a severe weather outbreak across the Ohio Valley Thursday and Friday. Much cooler air will then filter in behind that front for next weekend.
The next thing for us to watch out for will be an increase in moisture down in the Gulf and the Caribbean. The models are trying to develop a tropical system down there during the first week of July. Regardless… our flow may eventually come from this region. This shows up nicely on the GFS 2 week rainfall forecast…
Have a great Sunday and take care.
Three words I didn’t wanna hear! “Severe Weather Outbreak”.. 🙁
While it’s still too early, the severe wx is perhaps more likely to be strong damaging winds (a derecho?) and/or large hail.
But as others have mentioned, this time of year is less likely to have stronger tornadoes in our area. Among other factors, the jet stream now tends to be a bit weaker and farther north of us. Thus by late June, stronger twisters are more typical around the Great Lakes and northern plains than here. Not that nature can’t pull a surprise. However, late June through early October has never recorded twisters stronger than F2/EF2 in Kentucky/Tennessee.
As mentioned, stronger tornadoes tend to stay away of us this time of year. Yesterday was the second anniversary of the 2011 Louisville twisters. Yet even these were EF0s, EF1s and a pair of low-end EF2s. Fortunately no loss of life.
Today is anniversary of violent 1944 outbreak which included F4s in Pennsylvania (including Pittsburgh) and northern West Virginia. By far WV’s worst tornado outbreak. Yet another example that the notion of mountains blocking tornadoes is a myth.
Thanks, not that it can’t happen, but that bit of information actually eases my mind. I get worked up easy. I’m ready for this pattern to break. I love ole fashioned thunderstorms, but not anything too severe.
Thanks, Chris. I hope the storms this afternoon and evening clear out before the moon comes up. Really want to get pics of it. Also, missed getting to see the space station last night due to them. Hopefully, they will cooperate this evening. Have a great Sundsy, everyone.
Tonight the space station will be higher over the horizon. I missed it last night as well. Its supposed to show up at 10:13 and be visible for 3 minutes.
The Super Moon was awesome. I was outside after midnight and it seemed you could almost do anything you wanted to outside because it was so bright.
Summer of storms? Summer of missing storms in Frankfort area, wish we could get a good heavy thunderstorm, dry ground is starting to take over! Less than .50 rain in two weeks in my area.
That radar looks odd. A huge line of red is heading southeast toward St. Louis but the storms closer to us are moving north and out of Kentucky.
I love rain in the summer. My hilly farm dries out very quickly.
Too much rain in Hopkins county…nearly 6″ today. Cannot verify but read dispatch reports of 3 blocks of homes evacuated due to flooding a couple of hours ago.