Good Wednesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumbled back into the bluegrass state Tuesday afternoon and these will become fairly widespread today. This takes place as a strong cold front blows into the region from the northwest.

The storms of today may produce a two-pronged attack. The first being the severe weather threat and the other coming in the form of flash flooding. I don’t need to tell you how wet the ground is and how much rain has fallen of late. But, this waterlogged ground means the torrential rains from thunderstorms can quickly cause flash flood problems. This really has my attention today into this evening.

The severe weather threat will mainly come in the form of high winds and hail. Storms will move through in clusters from the west and northwest. Here’s what you need to track the severe potential…

Today’s risk area
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Showers and storms will slowly work out of town early Thursday as cooler and drier air moves in for the afternoon and into Friday.

That’s when we get into a lot of model disagreement. We typically see this when there is a lot going on and… there is a lot going on. We have the possibility of a big closed low pinwheeling across our part of the world this weekend and we have tropical system to watch. Chantal may head toward the southeastern part of the country in time.

The GFS has actually been trying to something quite anomalous in getting these two together this weekend…

GFS

That would bring a lot of rain our way if it verifies. In today’s weather world… no extreme solution can be ruled out.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.