Good Tuesday, everyone. The setup for the next several days is one to take very seriously. Rounds of strong to severe storms will impact the region and will also bring the possibility of widespread flooding issues.
Here’s a breakdown of how things may play out:
WEDNESDAY
- A Flood Watch goes into effect for most of the region and lasts through Sunday.
- A potent storm system rolls from the Plains states into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front toward us.
- Temps surge into the upper 70s to low 80s on a strong southwest wind.
- Wind gusts reach 40mph to 50mph at times.
- Scattered thunderstorms go up across western Kentucky with severe storms developing just west of the Ohio River.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
- Severe thunderstorms explode during the evening across western Kentucky.
- Supercells may go up, increasing the tornado threat.
- All of this likely comes together for another line of severe storms that presses into central Kentucky overnight.
- This line may produce widespread damaging winds.
- Torrential rains will also come from this line, bringing our first threat for flash flooding.
THURSDAY
- Our cold front stalls from southwest to northeast near the Ohio River.
- Rounds of strong to severe storms will develop along and south of this line.
- Once again, damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible.
- Torrential rains will also bring another flood and flash flood threat.
- The farther southeast you live, the better the chance of dry and very warm conditions.
- This same general trend continues into Thursday night
FRIDAY
- Waves of strong to severe storms target much of the same areas of central, northern and western Kentucky.
- All of this is once again oriented from southwest to northeast.
- Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible.
- With more torrential rains showing up, now we are looking are the greatest potential of major flooding issues.
- Flash flooding, general flooding and river flooding are all possible.
- The farther southeast you live, the drier things continue to be.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumble through.
- Severe storms and torrential rains will once again be a good bet.
- This action expands farther to the east later in the day and continues through early Sunday.
- The heavy rain and severe storms should FINALLY calm down from west to east Sunday.
- Much colder winds then kick in during the afternoon and evening.
- Major flooding issues are once again a good bet for parts of the state.
One thing to remember… It’s NOT wall to wall during this extended time period. You will see times of dry weather between waves of storms. The best chance for extended dry times is across the southeast.
Another thing… Any deviation north or south of where this boundary sets up could mean some dramatic swings in rainfall totals for any one location.
My rainfall forecast hasn’t changed with the potential for devastating rainfall amounts…
As hard as it is to believe, the GFS is going well above my forecast and is forecasting catastrophic rainfall amounts…
The ICON and Canadian aren’t to that extreme, but they continue to show more than enough rain to cause major flooding issues…
The initial severe weather threat today is just to our west…
The Storm Prediction Center then puts much of our region in a big time severe weather risk late Wednesday into Wednesday night…
The HRRR Significant Tornado Parameter has an ominous look across western Kentucky. This animation goes from 2pm to 8pm Wednesday…
The Storm Prediction Center has much of central and western Kentucky in a fairly high tornado risk later Wednesday…
Widespread wind damage is also expected…
Severe hail is a good bet across the west…
The Severe Weather Outlook shows the overall severe storms risk going into Thursday…
Our cold front FINALLY puts an end to this weather madness by Sunday night and Monday. But it turns cold enough for a few snowflakes to show up to start Spring Break week for many school districts across the region.
I will have another update or two for you guys coming later today. in the meantime, let’s track the severe weather to our west…
s…
Current watches
Possible Watch Areas
Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.
Hope the rainfall totals doesn’t come true. 6- 12 across wky yikes
Bummer. Will be outside, Friday – Friday, working in the woods, clearing undergrowth. Long-planned, so it’s gonna happen. The new rain suit I bought will get a good workout.