Good Thursday, everyone. Rounds of showers and storms continue to rumble across the Commonwealth as our overall pattern doesn’t want to change very much over the next week or two. Beyond that, much cooler changes look to show up.
Here’s a breakdown of what we are dealing with:
- Steamy temps continue out there today through Saturday. Highs are generally mid and upper 80s for many.
- Humidity levels are way up, giving us that tropoical feel.
- Scattered showers and storms will be floating around, but a lot of areas miss out.
- A better threat for showers and storms shows up late this weekend into early next week.
- Some of those storms may be strong and put down heavy rains.
- Another round or two of showers and storms will be with us later next week as another front drops in.
The forecast models are showing some hefty rainfall totals over the next few weeks…
Yesterday, I showed you how the MJO is forecast to head into Phase 6 over the next few weeks…
The corresponding temperature pattern for Phase 6 shows a push of below normal temps for much of the country…
The latest runs of the GFS and EURO are going right to that Phase 6s look as we hit the middle of the month. Watch the below normal numbers from the GFS…
The EURO sees some pretty good pushes of below normal…
I leave you with your storm tracking tools for the day…
Current watches
Possible Watch Areas
Make it a great Thursday and take care.
So far we have dodge the heavy rain here in my neck of woods.
Here in Taylor county, we have’t received any rain since July 1st. This is no surprise, as most Summers in this part of the state have many dry days. Maybe later this weekend ?
The MJO phase 6 equals very pleasant temperatures. Models agreeing is great news.
I’m not buying what the models are selling.
It would be too expensive for me. I would’t buy it either. LOL….
I, for one, am ready for a break in the heat. After a 17 day stretch, yesterday was the first day that the Heat Index reading failed to reach 100°F. The big culprit has been the dewpoint, which equaled or exceeded 80°F on each of those days, and reflects the fact that we’ve picked up enough rainfall through that stretch to maintain ground moisture.
With sea surface temps in the western Caribbean approaching 90°F, a frontal boundary about to stall out, and very low surface shear, we could see a tropical disturbance could pop up over the next few days.
It has not been an unusal Summer here, but I’m way out in the hills and forests, that may be the reason. I’m ready for Autumn weather, frosty mornings, and Sunny, mild afternoons.
The MJO phase 6 is good for now, but it also projects an above normal ( SON )
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/SON/combined_image.png
I’m not ready. 🙂