Good Friday, everyone. We’ve made it to the end of the week with the weekend about to kick in. While the days change, the overall pattern doesn’t change very much as steamy temps and scattered storms rule the weather.
Temps today hit 85-90 in most areas with a bit of an increase in humidity levels. A storm or two will go up, especially across the southeast, but many of us stay dry.
The threat for showers and storms will increase over the weekend and into Monday ahead of a cold front dropping in from the northwest. The GFS and EURO are both singing the same tune on this…
GFS
EURO
The weather may be fairly pleasant behind that boundary for Tuesday, but moisture looks to quickly increase with more showers and storms behind that for the second half of next week. The GFS is even trying to develop something tropical during this time…
The GFS really likes to overdo tropical systems, but the up close development is something the pattern says is certainly possible.
The AI version of the EURO sees some of that but has a series of cold fronts dropping in from the northwest from later next week through the following week…
That’s the setup that would bring the shots of cooler than normal temps…
Looking farther down the road, we find the GFS Extended showing above normal rains into the second week of August…
The control run is even wetter…
As always, I leave you with your daily dose of tracking tools…
Current watches
Possible Watch Areas
Make it a great Friday and take care.
We won’t see an overall weather pattern change until something in the Pacific changes.
I’ll believe the models if it actually happens.
It’s very difficult to predict the weather these days. It’s the cycle we are in : ENSO / neutral with a negative PDO. We shall all see what happens in the Pacific, as we get closer to our Winter months. As a Snow lover, I will be hoping for a strong negative EPO.
The July ENSO report from the Climate Prediction Center indicates a high probability that we will continue in an ENSO-Neutral status during the Aug-Oct timeframe. However,the odds for Winter 2025-26 are even chances whether we continue ENSO-Neutral or phase into La Nina. but the chances for a shift to El Nino during the period are virtually nil.
The latest Season Surface Temperature Anomaly chart are interesting. Warmer waters in the equatorial Atlantic area warmer, increasing chances for tropical systems. In the Pacific, if the very warm water stretching from Japan to the Gulf of Alaska continue in place into the fall and beyond, they could help sustain the survival of super typhoons into the northern Pacific, where they could influence movement of the polar jet stream, and pump polar air into central Canada and the US.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png
If you don’t have an ENSO / El Nino with a positive PDO plus a strongly negative EPO, forget about any major Snowstorms this coming Fall and Winter. Chances of this happening in my lifetime is zero. I’m sure now that this negative PDO will continue no matter what phase ENSO is in.