Good Wednesday, everyone. A very soggy pattern is just getting started across the bluegrass state and it is likely to be a prolonged one. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms have the potential to put down a lot of water in the coming days. That means we will need to be on guard for the possibility of flooding in some areas.
The action gets started today with a few storms going up… especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these may be on the strong side. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting parts of the region for a severe storm or two. Here’s what you need to track it all…
Today’s risk area
Current watches
Possible watch areas
Localized high winds will be possible from the strongest storms that blow up today. The main threat continues to be the heavy rainfall. Check out the GFS rainfall totals through Sunday…
Amounts of 1″-4″ will be possible for many areas during this time. Areas getting in on repeat thunderstorm action can pick up even more and that is the cause for concern. Keep an eye on creeks and streams through the weekend.
I will have updates as needed. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
Sooo, looks like yet another bust on the forecast by the local weather folks? No rain for central KY in the near future? Wish my job allowed me to wrong most of the time and not get fired too!
Do you realize how silly you look?
The computer models have been of no help with trying to figure out when the rain will arrive in north central/central KY. That big blob of rain in western ky was suppose to be in north central/central ky last night and this morning. That never happen.
NWS backing off rain chances for today, the models are junk right now but that’s nothing new for KY!
NWS Paducah has even dropped its Flash Flood Watch.
Still, radar is showing good rain in western KY. Here in Nashville, we’ve currently getting heavy rain with some thunder; so much for the outdoor lunch.
All the models are handling this differently. The reason why it’s difficult for everyone is because there’s not much forcing in the atmosphere to ignite storms and some other reasons. I always read this blog also because he always goes in depth and he disagreed with the SPC yesterday and the SPC even took out the slight risk out of our area.
Its not posting the link but it is WDRB weather blog
major BUST on the forecast today, when you have a 60 to 80 percent chance of rain in the morning forecast, and then a 20% coverage at most results, that is called BUST!
Really? I mean… Really? Do you understand how big our forecast area is? Do you see how many counties we have in the state of Kentucky?
It was POURING!!!! rain in Lexington when I was there this afternoon.
I thought you might be a little more professional than this, just admit, you had a 80% chance of rain in your forecast today, your are the pro, just asking how a 80% chance of rain is so hard to forecast these days, and by the way, just because it rains in lex doesn’t mean you nailed it!!!
It’s not about being professional or unprofessional, but the day is unfolding exactly as it was forecast. Afternoon and evening with the highest chance for storms. Because it wasn’t raining at 7am, I get accused of being wrong? Btw.. how many counties are under a Flash Flood Warning right now? I am not trying to be rude at all and appreciate all your posts. Still… I have never been someone to not speak my mind or defend myself against a baseless attack. Take care and I do appreciate you.
you have to laugh out loud. how’s that new GFS model working out. It appears that the models have already began their un reliable winter forecasting. it is going to be a long depressing winter with a lot of false hopes.
ALL the models were the same. Most meteorologist base their forecast off the radar/precip models which is very wrong in this case like today. One met I know out of tens doesn’t do that. Look at WDRB weather blog. Always goes in depth and he sometimes disagrees with SPC risks and forecast. http://tinyurl.com/k2znymz
I’m trying to figure out how some of you are calling today a bust when this was the forecast on this very blog…
“The action gets started today with a few storms going up… especially in the afternoon and evening hours.”
Because other sources told you today would be a washout starting in the early morning… please don’t mix that up with what was said on this blog.
Thanks and take care.
Really I agree with Chris! It’s pouring in Danville Ky. I just replanted my lawn after it got washed out the week of June 23rd so I’ve got my fingers crossed we just get grazed especially since I’ve got a real river in the back yard and I don’t need it over it’s banks again! Arriving a little late is OK in my book 🙂
You’re awesome CB. I’m a weather enthusiast and understand the basics of weather (but a bit more in depth) and the difficulty of forecasting and I know A LOT of the public bash on mets year round. You’re my favorite and thanks for what you do! 🙂
Hey Chris,
Your forecast was right on track here in Breathitt County. It was raining on the way to work to Campton this morning and pouring all the way back home to Jackson this afternoon. I have an extreme respect for you and the mets here at the NWS for all your guys hard work and dedication keeping us safe and informed!