Good Wednesday afternoon everybody. Your friendly weather dude wanted to drop in to update this wintry pattern that is setting in the next few days and the threat for a big storm early next week.
In the short term… low pressure is crossing the deep south and is throwing up just enough moisture to create a snow streak across northern Tennessee. This should cross the border into our far southern Kentucky counties this afternoon into the evening and MAY lay down a very light accumulation for some. Track those flakes here…
A few flurries could make it as far north as Interstate 64 later today as highs stay in the 30s.
There are no changes to what is ahead of us for Thursday evening through Saturday as several snow streaks will work in from the northwest. This should lay down a general 1″-3″ of fluffy snow during this time with some higher totals in the mountains. Totals will be toward the lower end of that scale the farther west you go. This will likely create some slick travel at times as very cold air surges in here.
The pattern continues very favorable for a storm late weekend into early next week. This storm may actually come out of the southwest in two pieces from late Sunday through Tuesday. The evolution of this system and the impact it has on our weather will have to be nailed down later… but the the trend is for a fairly hefty storm taking shape across much of the eastern half of the country.
The Canadian Model continues to look the most threatening…
The GFS has a WELL KNOWN BIAS of being too far southeast with storms in this type of setup. The model has basically been showing no storm of late. Even the GFS is catching on…
Tuesday Afternoon
So… if we know the GFS’s bias and correct it to the west… what do you get? Something similar to what the Canadian is showing. 
To the credit of the GFS… it is not alone with a farther south and east solution as the European model has been showing something similar. Given the overall look of the pattern… there should be much more ridging showing up off the southeast coast allowing for something more like what the Canadian is showing. The fact the European model continues to agree with the GFS is noted.
I am apparently not alone in my thoughts of a bigger storm as the folks at Accuweather are already in hyper active mode…
Again… that is NOT MY MAP. 
I am only saying what I have been saying for a couple of weeks now… that this time period is ripe for a big storm somewhere across the eastern half of the country. We will figure out the rest once in the coming days.
I will update as needed later today so check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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I’m sure it isn’t hitting the ground but Versailles has something overhead according to the radar. Sunday through Tuesday looks promising. I’ll keep my fingers crossed and hope that we get hammered here in Woodford County.
Ha First. I need a Life. π
Thanks for the update chris. No snow falling in knox co. Yet but it sure looks like it wants to.
Ok Folks, for the simpletons on the bolg….well, ok, ME. What does all this mean? When, Where and How much is basically what I am asking. I’m not asking for a definite, I wouldn’t hold anyone to any specifics just some general ideas..please!
Way to early to give totals. However, a system like this could produce 6-8 inches of snow throughout most of KY. It would have to play out like the Accuweather map shows.
Sadly, DT’s not buying the Candian. He says the shift south and east by the majority of the models means something. I’ve got my fingers crossed, but those south of us and up the east coast might get another storm. We’re just in a crappy spot.
sorry, but who is “DT”
Bring on the snow!
Light snow falling in barbourville,knox co. With temp. 36
its a bust, er the 1-2 inches at.
the first off very few misses by the LEGEND BAILEY. I let him slide on 1 out of 50 times he missed.
Road crews are pre-treating knox co. Roads
About an hour ago, my son was traveling from Cookeville to Nashville. He said big flakes were falling.
Rolo what are you talking about? What does “er the 1-2 inches at” mean?
It means Rolo has been sipping on some afternoon “cough syrup” again.
so you r calling for more than Chris so its a bust?
Dont say anthing about what Rolo means when he types entrys on the blog, I tried that and got chastised; hope you guys have fun trying to figure it out
In Rolo-Speak, that is “Where are the 1-2 inches at”?
It really isn’t that hard….
Love Rolo! He brings entertainment and smiles to the blog.
I do recall a situation similar around Christmas and the week leading up to it saying the storm will surely go south of us…..WRONG ANSWER LOL!! Until Chris changes his mind I won’t second guess him. Most of us ended up with 4-8 inches in the end with a foot on the ground in some places. Other Mets don’t seem to have a grasp on Eastern KY weather like he does.
Someone has to say it.
Geez, would it be great if the Accuweather graphic became reality! Keeping my fingers crossed in Owensboro. Your blog is the best, Chris.
Well, you may have ended up with nice totals, but the snow dome is fully operational over Louisville.
DT is the guy who runs wxrisk.com. He’s a noted forecaster, but with a flair for the bombastic. He works out of Virginia. You can see him breakdown the model runs at stormvista.com. He puts accuweather to shame.
Not if that-there Accu map pans out π
Points to ponder for next week:
1. When was the last time the national mets had KY in the main path of a big snow event? Long time ago in galaxy far away.
2. CB has already been hinting the same thing.
3. If the everybody is still talking snow smack this weekend, there could be a Dumb & Dumber chance.
4. Regardless if it pans out, it is very rare for KY to be the main path for an event on any map. Last time I do believe was 1993.
5. 1993 was also the year that we got the big snow and then the extreme cold temps. If folks recall, KY part of I-75 was closed for two days.
Just for fun, wouldn’t it be incredible if this 12z gfs run at 276 was to actually happen?!? and that’s a 6 hour precip. run…WHOA!! lol. That would pretty much be unheard of. The ratios would be better than 10:1 with all the cold air settled in. And the winds behind it would create whiteout conditions throughout the bluegrass! Ok, i’m coming back to reality world. But, it’s fun to look at. So, check it out:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp1_276.shtml
Snows that BIG this winter is becoming common in my neck of the wood. Done had 2 systems with 8″ or more already.
Check out these traffic cams in Knoxville to see the snow falling.
http://www.ci.knoxville.tn.us/about/cams.asp
I just recieved this from accuweather.com from a email concerning next week’ storm.
the bigger question is what will happen during the overnight sunday into tuesday of next week coming, I will have models up in a few days but I am tracking this storm and their is 3 storms brewing. one is in texas, one is forming in canada, and the other… is in colorado, they will all 3 collide with one another created a monster for eastern and southeastern Kentucky of next week…things could change very quickly, a way to keep a eye on what’s going on.
this storm could be possibly bigger than the 93-94 snow in january we had, this month for snow is nothing like we saw in december. you think december was a big snow…you haven’t seen this month what it’s about to do, artic air is fixing to push in here and it’s gonna cause cold air to plummet to the bottom.
I have close to a inch at my house.
I live in eastern KY, and they are already putting brine on the highway. Isn’t it a bit too early?
No snow here. South Clay County may see some, but I live on the North side. Looks like we will see some tomorrow night though. I hope we get a big old time snow from this storm moving in for weekend. Lets keep our finger crossed.
snowed steady here for about 3 hrs. then its just been flurries since then. no accumulation at my house, but I would say just a few miles to the south of me there is snow on the ground, Brandon in Middlesboro says about 1″ at his house…and I was looking at the webcams out of Gatlinburg and pigeon forge about 30 min. ago. it was snowing very heavy big flakes…It appears East Tn. was the sweet spot for this little event…
No snow here.
Nothing falling here in Corbin.
No it’s not to early. They did my road yesterday and I asked my husband the same question.
I have a friend that lives in Sevier Co, TN and she said they have close to 2-3″ already.
Don’t say the “D” word.
As for point #1 I can remember a couple of years back when you were a member of the Dark Side. Your a much more pleasant fellow since you gave up your evil ways. π
I’m thinking this will be the year for a big one over Central KY.
They already have brine on Versailles Road in Woodford County. Does seem early to me if they are doing this for a Friday system.
I think it will only snow for about :15 on Friday.
No snow here yet either.
Well, I know that many of you on here are too young to remember the winters of 77-78, but, as a very young newlywed, whose new hubby worked a different shift than she did, I sure do remember them! We got the BIG snows, and one did not get gone until we got another one. KY certainly WAS the sweet spot. Who knows, BubbaG, we just might get lucky. I will reserve judgement on the weekend/early next week storm until it gets closer, and Chris has some more imput on it. (Hows that for dodging the question? π I ought to go into politics! ) JUST KIDDING, CHRIS! Please don’t ban me!
Has anyone seen Henry’s updated blog? He has central and eastern KY in the 3-6 range for the Friday storm. This could be a great setup for a good snow, a 3-6 snow Friday and then the bigger system next week. Give us over a foot just one time, then bring on spring and warm weather!
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/43992/snow-maps-for-the-two-storms-coming-are-ready-norlun-trough-snows.asp
I was just looking at the gfs snowfall map, i’m pretty sure it was the 18z if not someone can correct me. but it flat out shuts down east ky, east tn, and northern ga. from sun-tue. with heavy snow, and then a double whammy a couple of days later…which ever model run that was I love it!!!..but we cant get that lucky..:)
but in some of the comments people were saying its going too far off the coast, it’s a wait and see right now.
funny just as i was typing this. i get a tweet..
JIM CANTORE: NEW GFS (thats only one model) suggests pot.ICE STORM 4Carolina piedmont late sunday/Monday. then everybody except west coast & Fla. = deep freeze…
………
So I would take that as there is a storm a comin!!!! but whose gonna get what, and where????…oh boy chris’s next update should be a doooooosie !!!
got alot to talk about,,,come on over its chattin time!!!!!!! snow.ice…etc..etc…et.c……LOL…
http://ekywx.com/kychat.htm
hmmmm.. i wonder if all these dead falling birds are committing suicide,because a big BLIZZARD IS COMING…hmmmm
WOW…they just showed a school bus stuck in the snow in knoxville,tn today!!…
Henry is a terrible forecaster. Please do not refer to the idiot. Even folks who get up-slope snows will only get 2-4 inches of snow. Everybody else will get an inch or less this time. However I think the early week storm is going to be a big one.
I miss Middlesboro! I’ll be there this weekend, yah it’ll be kinda fun driving probably. Coming from E-Town to Tazewell, TN.
I miss my old church family there!
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