Good Sunday, everyone. We have been on one heck of a soggy weather run over the past several days. Flash flooding has been a daily occurrence at various parts of the state since Wednesday. We have a little bit of a break coming our way today, before more showers and storms come calling for the week ahead.
Today’s action will be much more isolated and mainly confined to the southern half of the state. Still, we will need to watch any shower or storm for the possibility of heavy rain. Here’s regional radar..
The threat for showers and storms will increase from southwest to northeast on Monday. Juice will be returning to the entire region and will interact with another cold front marching our way by late Tuesday. The NAM shows the return of the storms…
That front is forecast to clear the region and press well into the deep south by Wednesday. I now have some question marks on how far south this thing will actually get. We will see cooler and drier air working in here for the second half of the week, I think we will have issues getting rid of the storm threat for more than a day or so.
Watch for a weakness in the atmosphere to set up from the Gulf into the eastern Ohio Valley by the end of the week into next weekend. That setup can bring some pretty good moisture northeastward into this region. With the wet ground we have in many places, that is certainly something to keep an eye on.
That pattern actually matches up pretty well with the new 45 day rainfall forecast from the CFS model…
The CFS has been all over the cooler than normal summer, so it’s earned the right to taken seriously. Let’s hope it doesn’t have the same success with the rainfall forecast from above. That’s a lot of water!
Have a great Sunday and take care.
Can someone please send me a link to where I can keep up with the daily,weekly, monthly and yearly rainfall totals and averages? Thank you.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lmk
Loving the forecast for Wednesday on–highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s for 3 straight days in Mid-August. Yes, Please!
Since this is one of the Top 10 wettest summers I thought it might be interesting to see how this summer has stacked up against other wet summers concerning 90 degree days. I always thought the wetter the summer the cooler the weather but the data suggests there is little correlation between the two.
#1 1974–0 90 degree days
#2 1992–2 90 degree days
#3 1935–45 90 degree days!
#4 1942–44 90 degree days!
#5 1928–2 90 degree days
#6–1978–17 90 degree days
#7–1958–8 90 degree days
#8–1998–25 90 degree days
#9–1932–17 90 degree days
#10–2013 10 90 degree days
Now, let’s take the driest summers and see if there is a correlation between drought and 90 degree days.
#1 1930–39 90 degree days
#2 1936–85 90 degree days (all-time record)
#3 1983–54 90 degree days (most since the 1950’s)
#4 1913–40 90 degree days
#5 1922–19 90 degree days
#6 1911–30 90 degree days
#7 1903–21 90 degree days
#8 1921–29 90 degree days
#9 1927–14 90 degree days
#10 2002–44 90 degree days.
It appears that a drier summer has a much higher correlation with heat than a wetter summer does with cool weather.
Summer being a 3 month season, so roughly 90 days long…and 85 days of 90 or better temps. I can’t even to begin to process what it would be like having only 5 days during a Kentucky summer (with all of the humidity) be less than 90.
And no air conditioning!
Interesting, 6 of the 10 driest years occurred within a 25 year span (1911-1936). Just something that caught my eye. Anyways, the average number of 90 degree days for 10 driest summers are 37.5. Average 90 degree days for 10 wettest summers are 17. Wetter is much more likely to have less 90’s than drier.