Good Tuesday to one and all. The middle of August is starting to look and feel the part this week. Temps are getting closer to normal, humidity levels are rising and we have a daily threat for a shower or thunderstorm. This seems like a perfect time to talk a little bit about the fall and winter ahead. 🙂
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been throwing a few hints around about what I was seeing from this far out. I’m in the process of looking at years past that had similar weather to the year we have going on now. Those can sometimes offer clues on how the following fall and winter may play out.
Something is showing up this year that I have not encountered a lot of in all the years I’ve been doing this… some heavyweight winters.
While it is super early in the game… I am seeing the potential for some very cold shots this fall and winter. I’ve already talked about the possibility of 30s during the end of September, but it goes deeper than that. The signs point to a fast starting winter that may offer us the chance to get some big time cold shots in here. Lexington has not set a record low in winter since February, 1996. That’s… a… long… time. Will that streak end this winter?
The latest forecast from the seasonal model from NASA shows this fast start I’m talking about…
We obviously have a long way to go, so take any model or things I say with a touch of salt. A lot can and will change over the next few months. That’s part of the fun… right? 🙂
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
Even with climate change, were due for winter record cold temps is true. We’ve been knocking record high temps like nothing the past decade in whatever season of the year. (Please, dont put a long essay to reply to this comment about climate change.) I would love to see what a harsh winter is like. With only 2 winters of experience, the biggest snow storm I’ve been in was 4in.
We had some cold winters in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 with frequent small snows (a bunch of 1-3 inches with 4 being the general max). Those were actually the coldest back to back winters since the 1970’s.
The last truly brutal winter around here, in my opinion was 1993-1994. It got started early with snow on Halloween and featured -20 temps in Lexington and as low as -37 in Shelbyville. There was a statewide 1-2 foot snowfall and also and ice storm in February and another one in March.
I agree 93-94 was the last true winter from start to finish, Frankfort had a low temp in January 94 of -27 with 21 inches of snow on the ground!
Loved it 🙂
Seems like some funny roles of the dice the last 15 years or so regarding snow. In early January 2011, areas along the Tennessee-Alabama border of all places got about 17 inches snow in a single storm. Huntsville got their biggest single snowfall since the 1970s! Yet areas farther north seem to not have had any big single snows in a while, more like a lot of little snows adding up in some years. The huge “trace” snow of 1998 in central KY being at least one exception.
But yes, less severe cold since Jan 1994, Dec 1989, Jan 1985.
No comment….
I second that….
Does the setup look like 93-94? Was the summer prior to those years wet and mild like this summer is? I’m in Virginia; but it seems like KY gives us a prelude to what’s to come here in Central Virginia.
The models are wrong with winter storms 2 days out. I’m not going to trust them 4+ months away.
Right now I’m just hoping I’m not mowing in December. More rain in Lawrenceburg, KY!
No rain in east Frankfort since the 12th, count your blessings, my yard is getting dry!
Count your blessings. I’m tired of mowing 🙂
I see your point on that!
Just rained enough to wet the drive way, WOW
I like the word potential, it brings excitement…. We have had a big rain on our end of Letcher Co.
CB……grain of salt not touch of salt. That’s what I’ve always heard it. Anyway, I’m ready for long extended sots of cold . Just like the winters of my childhood. Wouldn’t mind it at all!!