Good Tuesday afternoon gang. The models are starting to advertise a bit more snow with the clipper moving in later this week and are also cranking out some light snow for some before that. All this adds up to what is going to become a major period of winter weather across the country for the rest of the month.
For more than a week now… we have talked about a southern system that had a shot to throw up some light snow into parts of the state. The closer we get… the more this looks to be the case… especially across our southern counties. This isn’t going to be a lot of snow… but enough to cover the ground for many. Here is a First Call For Snowfall…
The farther south you live… the better the chance of putting snow on the ground. Southern Kentucky has been a sweet spot for snow this winter and this system may do the trick yet again.
The clipper diving in for Thursday night through Friday continues to show up a bit stronger on each model run. The models are spitting out some decent snowfall with this. One thing to keep in mind is we should see some pretty good snow ratios setting up with this meaning this could be an overachiever.
Here is what the models show for the combined snowfall from Wednesday through Friday…
That is pretty impressive… especially for southeastern Kentucky where both models are spitting out up to 6″ of snow before the week is out.
With arctic air spilling in with the clipper… temps this weekend can tank!
A complex storm will be rolling out of the southern plains states Sunday into Monday. This is going to be a tough forecast until the models can get into some agreement on how it all plays out in terms of track of the low and just how many lows we will have to track. Early odds favor snow breaking out from west to east later Sunday into Monday as one low moves toward the Tennessee Valley. This low would then give way to a more powerful low to our southeast and east that rides up the coast. A scenario like that means everybody gets snow early with a mix threat in the middle for some then all snow again. That is nowhere even close to being a certainty as this is a complex system.
One thing for sure… arctic air is going to be moving in behind the departing storm and will get FRIGID around here for a long time to come. There will also be a few more systems we will have to watch for in the coming weeks that can blow up into big storms.
I will update again this evening so check back. Have a great rest of your Tuesday and take care.
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First? I say bring it! Want snow not just cold.
posted this just before the new update, so i’ll copy it over to this one…
BlizzardTim wrote:
I sniff another 3-6″ fluffy puff!!! coming down the pike…and no im not talking about marshmallow creme..although that sure sounds pretty good for someone who is trying to get back on a diet…
I noticed the 12z gfs is spitting out a bit of snow now for wed-thur. as well over southern ky..while the nam is being bullish on this as well…
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Oh boy, just what we parents want to hear NO SCHOOL!!..lol..I feel it coming on…
looks like that ole timers theory…clouding on a frost may have clout with it…1-2″ for wed.now for my area…:) you gotta love the pattern for snow if you live in southern ky..:)
I feel spring break fading away and the last day of school approaching the first day of class next fall!!!! UUUGGG!!! For once I don’t want snow.
Wow Chris! Is all I can say! We might see snow for the next few days. I love it! (Of course, I probably won’t when I have to be out in it all day, but right now….)
Looking forward to what the next post brings.
Tim, looks like we both may see some. My area is in 1-2 also…guess we will see…..
Funny that everyone other weather outlet doesn’t even mention the word snow. You do a great job Chris.
I’m just waiting on flip-flopper Rolo to come in and say it’s going to be 80 degrees and sunny.
Do we love Chris Bailey or what?
I can’t tell you how happy I am that there is snow in the forecast. I thought for sure once I bought my smartphone, just to keep up CB’s weather updates, we were doomed to have an early spring….haha.
NWS in Jackson giving 20 percent chance of snow for Wednesday night for us in Harlan County…no snow for Thursday?
Which model do they use?
Chris, the suspense is killing me. What about tomorrow night. Are you still thinking the general 1-2? I like your thoughts for Friday on twitter.
BILLT HE GOAT u must not have cable, geesh man gewt updated.
JIM CALDWELL and even wlex talking bout the 1-2 inxh snow tomm evening.
just like i figured, BIG SYSTEMS as usual first next week brings in warm air for alot with a dab of snow on backside.
Chris,
Thank you so much for all the great information. You are much appreciated.
What time is the snow suppose to start tomorrow?
Looking forward to the southern snow streak coming in tomorrow evening!! Normally I wouldnt be all that excited about snow hitting southern Kentucky and not really much in Central Kentucky, but since I’m not at home and am at school for student teaching, I’m more than thrilled. Hello snow day!! (Hopefully)
Well, what to do, what to do??? I supposed to move my son from Corbin to EKU-Richmond on Saturday…wondering if I should move that up until Thursday. Any thoughts are appreciated!!
Looks like Jackson not buying any accum. for tomorrow/night.. going 20 percent/no accum.
Wow I hope this comes true…..I don’t want school….POST TOMORROW…to let my hopes come true….Thanks Chris….YOUR THE BEST WEATHERMAN EVER!!!!!!….KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK…..
That anonymous above was me up there! I don’t know why it wouldn’t put my name the first time. lol
A very interesting divergence occuring between the model output and how the Louisville TV stations are predicting temps next week. Run after run shows bitterly cold air at the 850 level rolling into the region. Some of the numbers have been close to -14C to -16C. Despite that, highs on TV are being shown around 30F.
I know a certain amount of interpretation is always required, but the raw numbers say an arctic outbreak not seen since maybe January 1985 is on the way. DT noted in his weekly audio briefing the pattern resembled the arctic outbreaks of the late 1970’s. The jet stream lines on the Euro are coming directly from Siberia. That does not indicate 30F high temperatures.
BRING IT ON!!! Looks like another half foot snow storm for me again per the GFS..
the cold is coming but is still more than 7 days away.by next weekend we should be over 10*F below normal.
That cold comes AFTER the 2nd low on Tuesday. It will be 30s early week more than likely then teens/20 deg. They did show that.
should be ok Saturday. best chance for snow Friday.
Wonder when we will get a undate as I see Chris tweeted a few hours ago the totals were going up.
Yeah, snow days are great when you are student teaching. You get the days off, but don’t have to make them up. The student teachers are back in college and finished with classes while the school aged kids have to go into June to make up the days.
Most everbody is saying we may be below -0 degrees and you are saying 10*F below normal? Don’t understand your statement?
Let’s all make a pact, or take an oath, to check on our neighbors during this arctic blast. I know I need to do a better job. This could be life or death to some of our older and less fortunate friends.
AND, feed the birds,please.
I like some snow but….no more snow days! Can’t we just have snow on the weekends? I want a full summer break!
These little piddly snows are already getting old this winter, but MUCH easier to shovel, so all is good 🙂
Well, Chris said he would update again later…so, we will just have to wait and see what he has to say then….(for me, that probably meanstomorrow morning, Ha!)
BubbaG, I still think the possibility is there for you guys to get dumped on before winter is over….just sayin’
(I have been known to be right before, as well as wrong. 😉 )
Just got done watching Kevin Harned on Wave3 & was very suprised to see them forecasting only a 1/2″ to 1″ of snow from the clipper moving in Friday. Chris tweeted earlier it looks like most of the state is 1″-4″ with most closer to the 4″ amount. I guess Wave3 in Louisville doesn’t see much precip out of this. They also don’t see anything major coming our way Monday & Tuesdsay. Only a light snow “chance” for that time period and nothing big to speak of the next couple of weeks. Quite a difference from CB’s post earlier that this January has at least the “potential” to be a classic in the making. I like following both blogs. But, for some reason Wave3 just does NOT see a classic winter in the making (by their forecast the next 2 weeks) as Chris suggested could happen.
chris’s forecast not looking good for wednesday night. the 00z gfs looks more like the ecmwf recent runs aka not a lakes cutter with less qpf for early next week.
once again Louisville misses out. go ahead and wrap up the winter.
HUh!
After seeing the electric bill I just received, I dread the COLD that is coming!
Well bring on the snow.Also Chris or anyone what do you make out the birds falling from the sky they say now ky what gives?