Good Friday everyone. Our weekend is kicking off with an improving forecast in the short term as our big storm rolls on out of town. This will set us up for the coldest night of the season tonight and could produce the first light freeze for some. The overall weather pattern remains very active and the end of next week continues to get my attention.

Let’s start things out with the precious present before we look ahead.

Today’s weather will see improving conditions as the day wears on. Skies will become partly sunny from southwest to northeast. I can’t rule out a lingering shower early today across the far north and east.

Temps will start cold with readings down into the low and mid 30s for the west and south as clear skies help readings tank. Afternoon highs will range from 50 in the far north and east to mid and upper 50s in the west.

Follow all of today’s weather…



Current Temps



Morning Lows


Clear skies tonight will give us the coldest temps of the fall season, so far. Lows will head toward 32 degrees in many areas with some upper 20s possible in the colder valleys. A hard frost and light freeze is likely early Saturday morning.

The rest of Saturday will see plenty of sunshine and as our temps hit the 50s for highs. Sunday looks warmer with readings in the 60-65 degree range. A weak front arrives on the scene Sunday night and Monday with an increase in clouds and a shower or two.

Temps for Tuesday look to spike up ahead of our next big weather maker. Highs in the low 70s will be possible before this next system moves in later Wednesday and Thursday. 

We have a lot of specifics yet to be ironed out with the cold shot and possible storm for the second half of next week. The pattern is a very interesting on as the air mass should be colder than the current one and many of the model runs have been hinting at another moisture laden storm.

One of the latest runs of the GFS is showing a significant rain that ends as snow from late Wednesday through Friday…



Take those maps with a MAJOR grain of salt!!! But… Let’s put this one on the ” keep and eye on” list.

On a related note… the analog year I have been teasing you guys with is 1950. This is a year that has a lot in common with the one we are in. From an index standpoint…



The fall of 1950 also produced several cutoff lows like we have seen this fall…



I already mentioned that 1950 was also one of the top ten wettest years on record for many of the official reporting stations across the area. 2011 is also on pace to crack the top 10 list for many of these same cities.

The winter of 1950 featured a Thanksgiving weekend blizzard for this region to go along with all time November record lows. It went on to produce a very snowy winter with a massive ice and snow storm in late January and early February.

All that said… NO TWO WINTERS ARE EVER THE SAME!!!! Just because this is my top analog right now does not mean the upcoming winter will produce the same results. It is me saying 2011 and 1950 have a ton in common. We shall see how the rest of fall goes and if 1950 continues to lead the way for me.

Have a great Friday and take care.