Good Monday everyone. The holiday season is now behind us and it’s time to start looking ahead to a wicked period of winter that is likely for much of the country this month. As a matter of fact… this period has the POTENTIAL to rival some of the all time greats like January, 1994 and those of the late 1970s. It will all kick off later this week with a growing threat to put snow on the ground.
Before then… the weather looks fairly tame. Highs the next few days will run from the mid and upper 30s to low 40s under partly sunny skies. A southern system late Wednesday may throw just enough moisture northward into the region to produce some light snow in our southern counties.
The real fun and games will get started with a clipper diving southeastward toward the region Thursday night into Friday. This is likely to have a nice swath of accumulating snows with it and will be followed by a heck of a shot of arctic temps into the weekend.
This is likely to be a potent little system moving in and the Canadian Model shows this very well…
You can see how the model takes the clipper off the east coast and tries to develop it into a big storm along the coast. The European Model is similar with the evolution of the clipper, but decides to bring the whole polar vortex into the region behind it and develops another blizzard along the east coast…
Looking inside the numbers on the European model… it puts down a few inches of snow for most Thursday night through Friday and keeps eastern parts of the state in some nice upslope snow shower action into Saturday. That is also a major blast of arctic air.
The European model has been rather erratic of late with the details of individual storms. That said… the above solution has shown up on some other model runs over the past several days. I still think the east coast blizzard may be a bit excessive on this run. Either way… we are only impacted by the clipper as far as snow goes and every solution has our clipper snow around here. 
The GFS model has the clipper as well… but it is also having some issues in figuring out the strength of the low. I suspect the model is too weak and misguided with the precipitation track and amounts. It’s not like the model isn’t showing snow around here though…
I happen to think the snow shield would be a big more expansive coming our way from the midwest.
For those regular readers… you will note I have been pointing toward the January 6th through 10th period as one that is favorable for a big storm in the eastern part of the country. The one the European Model is blowing up occurs during the start of the time. But, that’s not the storm I have had my eye on. It’s this one…
Canadian Model
European Model
Both models are now going all out in showing a potent storm coming from the southern plains into the deep south then toward the east coast. They differ on the evolution and track of the possible storm… but from a week away… would you expect anything different? I am just glad to see a storm showing up around the time we said to be looking for one. 
We will work out the details as we get closer… but it is certainly on the radar now.
Farther down the road… WOW is all i can say. The amount of blocking that continues to show up on the medium and long range models is nothing short of amazing. The arctic shots of air will grow MUCH stronger next week through the rest of January in what is likely to be an extreme period of cold and snow for a lot of the country. In my 12 year Professional career of forecasting weather in Kentucky… I have never seen this much potential for bitter cold and snow. It is only potential right now… let’s just see how nasty old man winter really wants to be!
This might be a good time to do winterize your home and car.
I will have more updates later this afternoon so be sure to check back. Have a great Monday and take care.
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I’m so excited! My eyes will be glued to this computer screen all month. *happy dance*
Wow is all I can say! I’m hoping for cold and lots of snow. This week, however, is going to be boring. zzzzzzzz
I like some snow and winter, but those of you who are looking forward to the rest of this month should be careful what you wish for. Do you have plenty of firewood? Can you keep your water pipes thawed if you lose power? Can you cook if you lose power? There are people who die every year because of house fires or carbon monoxide poisoning as a result of trying to stay warm in sub zero temps. Those of us on farms with animals have another level of challenge – trying to keep the critters fed and watered and not getting frostbite.
This is just a friendly reminder of the ugly side of winter.
You can now return to regular programming. 🙂
Please don’t say “rival January 1994” Chris…I wasn’t living here then, but was visiting…from the tropics…and was welcomed with -23 degrees. No fun! Winter’s fine, but Alaska can keep their weather. We don’t need the ruined furnaces & busted water pipes!
I’m right there with you. I’m thrilled by this weather!!
Did Chris ever put out his winter forcast or did I miss it! He may have given up on the forcast and just let the weather speak for itself! lol 🙂
Guess this is the week to catch up on sleep, b/c the rest of the month, most people won’t get much!!! 😉
I figure he’ll just forget it. It’s a little late for a Winter forecast in January, you know? December was very active and kept him busy.
This is really disturbing.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
What does it mean?
When the AO tanks, it gets cold.
I dont’ have firewood but i do have natural gas and its free because we have own a gas well.
MarkLex,
I posted a reply to your question, but moderation nation. Cycles are a relative term and my reference was for January. CB’s shows snow chances, but smaller events followed by cold blasts of air (my reference)- not big snow makers unless for the usual suspects: north & east.
No complaint here. Less snow to shovel 🙂 I used to want big snows, but last year’s 7ish incher with drifts reminded me how unfun getting rid of it was on a steep driveway 😉
Morning everyone. thanks for the update, Chris. Looks like we could, indeed, be in for it. Will definitely be keeping an eye on what Chris has to say through out the rest of the week, and month!
Everyone have a GREAT Monday!
UGH makesa great point, there ALOT of the people on here who have never seen REAL WINTER weather and if WHAT CHRIS is hinting at happens, well u going to be in a SHOCKED STATE.
because power will be out, roads can become impossible, peopler will get hurt and even die etc. temps in double digit below zero as well for not just a day either.
with that said I dont see it getting that bad as in all time great winters, but if it does look for 2 feet of snow on ground and well below zero weather heading into Feb.
I still think the models will be alot warmer as u get closer to the events.
Im with BUBBA G and really am against BIG SNOWS anymore. to much trouble and havic.
after Decemember could u imagine a REAL WINTER STORM.lol
like I just posted some of u be CAREFUL WHAT U WISH FORRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!
Love your site…..
I was hoping to be out of school by the end of May this year. Looks like that is not going to happen….
Thanks for the update Chris, even though it sounds a bit scary. 🙂
Have a great Monday everyone!
Bought a Dakota Sno-blade and it makes moving snow a breeze as long as you don’t pack it down with the car a couple of times. Looks simple and is but sturdy.
http://dakotamountainproducts.com/
As usual, the Cincy mets and the NWS in Wilmington are downplaying Friday’s snow. NWS is not even showing snow showers until Friday night. When will these guys wise up? Chris has blown them away several times already this winter with his snow forecasts.
I echo your sentiment. I have my limit of cold temps – single digits is too cold. I live in a 110 yr old farmhouse that is insulated as best as it can be but some of the pipes still freeze. I stress a great deal over my farm animals as well when the water freezes solid an hour after I give it. My outbuildings do not have power so I can’t use heated waterers. I have to work so I can’t water them more than twice a day. I am hoping it does not get as cold as Chris is saying. Please be wrong for once Chris!
“In my 12 year Professional career of forecasting weather in Kentucky… I have never seen this much potential for bitter cold and snow. ” That line from Chris’ post really grabbed my attention! The AO tanking is a usually a good indicator that cold air is coming!
You know you love losing most of your summer for snow!!! By the way your softball field looks great from the road!!!!!!
Bubba……..
I understand that you are referring to the “usual suspects” as being the past twelve years, but it’s as if you seem to think it is going to be like the past twelve years from now on. You yourself know that it wasn’t always like this here, so what’s to make you believe it will be like this from now on? That’s all I was asking 🙂
Anyone who enjoys a good discussion on weather ought to check out DT’s “this week in weather” at http://www.wxrisk.com. It’s a great large scale discussion and he breaks down the next two weeks and mentions the charts are showing Siberian discharges like we saw in the late 1970’s. It lasts about 10 minutes.
Thanks man…still a work in progress, but its better than what we had.
I thought a Siberian discharge was what you found in a Russian’s Kleenex.
Even the operational GFS runs are supporting a bitter first half of January with chances for snow storms. If it happens to stay cold, it would be the first time I’m aware of ever that LEX records back-to-back extreme cold and snow months in both December and January. We’re not seeing the extended thaw yet that you’d usually see. I told you La Nina meant cold here, not warmth. 😉
I’m ready for lightning and squall lines personally. 🙂
I hope it snows till march and never gets above 25 degrees.
as am I.
You must never have to leave your house or apt.
….or make up a snow day during spring break or on a summer day!!!!!!!
If it is going to be Murmansk around here–I would like 8-10″ of snow to act as insulation against the DEEP freezing that will occur. I remember 77-78-79 and it was brutal.
Im loving this!!! Yes I do drive to work. Ice is what you dont want to drive in. Snow is easy. BRING IT ON!!! Also I love having underground electric.
We got an email from the DPP today and it looks like we are looking at losing spring break if we miss 6 more days of school. Given this forecast, it’s not looking good for families with reservations that week. (Montgomery Co.)