Good Tuesday, my fellow weather lovers. We’ve made it past the Labor Day weekend this is traditionally when many folks shift into fall mode. Around here… that also means when many of you start to talk about the upcoming winter and what it may bring. I thought it would be cool to have a little fun with the CFS Model. 🙂
Before we get to that… let’s talk about the weather of the week we’re in.
Today features some awesome stuff with highs in the 70s with low humidity and partly sunny skies. Temps tomorrow morning will be in the cool low 50s before warming toward 80 for the afternoon. The end of the week will see another cold front approaching from the north, with several other things on the map…
From snow in Canada to possible tropical development… fun times.
Speaking of snow… let’s have a little fun at the expense of the daily CFS model. While there are many signs for winter to get off and running earlier than normal… the CFS is going to the extreme. Check out what it shows for the first week of October…
Ummm.. yeaahhh. It doesn’t stop there. The first week of November…
The day before Thanksgiving…
The first week of December…
The model has so many storm systems through the winter that It would be impossible to show them all on here. Let me put out the typical disclaimer: these are to look at for fun and you can’t take them literally. That said, it’s clear what the model is suggesting… this winter may be super interesting.
Did you know the Atlantic has yet to produce a hurricane this year? Tomorrow, I will show you the last 2 years that went this late before producing the first hurricane and how those following winters turned out. Here’s a hint… look at the above maps. 😉
Have a great day and take care.
So this is the front every met (not really including CB) has been hyping about for the last 2 weeks. It only lasts 2 days. Heck, we were even colder in early-mid August. Btw, it’s almost impossible for all those scenarios to pan out in the same year, but could we be a month away from the first season snowfall? Earliest snowfall in Lex, trace in October 6, 1952.
It is a radical change–76 with a 62 dewpoint in Lexington. As opposed to 90’s with 70’s dewpoint.
Interestingly, Nashville’s earliest trace snow is the same October 6, 1952 date as Lexington.
Other record early trace snow dates:
Louisville – October 10, 1906 (earliest trace of sleet on October 3, 1980)
Memphis – October 19, 1989
So, what does CFS stand for? Crazy For Snow?
My mantra is “I’ll believe it when I see it.” I believe in “now” or “post casting” of winter weather. After 9 years I have learned winter forecasting must be very difficult. So many “busted forecasts” and the models never seem to correct for the same mistakes recurring year after year after year. (If you always hit the ball left, aim right…) Spring, summer and autumn forecasting is very good but winter forecasting isn’t reliable. I just don’t think the science, the models and the math is there yet for accurate winter forecasting. Perhaps this winter will be different.
It will be the same. The models keep messing up year after year because the models don’t “learn.” Only the forecasters can learn by experience by looking at what the models tend to do. The NAM tends to over do the precip. Forecasting and models won’t get any better until the Euro, GFS, NAM, etc. get upgrades.
On this subject, I learned relatively recently that the FIM model is currently under development. FIM could eventually replace the GFS now operated by the National Weather Service.
Looks interesting for sure. And you are right, its always fun to look at for us winter weather lovers. Right now, I am hoping that nothing tropical develops for the next 3 weeks, anyway, as we leave for Florida Friday week. Want good weather while there relaxing.
Hope everyone had a great Labor Day Weekend. And have a great Tuesday! Thanks, Chris, for all you do, even on the holidays, to keep us informed and ahead of the weather.
It appears the last two Atlantic seasons not to produce a hurricane this late in the year were 2002 and 2001. Gustav made hurricane status on September 11, 2002 and Erin on September 8, 2001. Looks like for sure we will not have a hurricane before 9/8 so before that you have to go to Diana on September 10, 1984.
The winter of 2002-2003 was nice a cold. 2001-2002 not so much. 1984-1985 was brutal in January and February.
Hope the big snow hits this year, alot of snow stared people on this blog, Chris will always keep it interesting their is no doubt about that 🙂
well at least we’re not in the Bulls eye on those maps..he,he
Let me guess…1977 and 2002. Of course those were epic winters, but there has been no published correlation between the absence of hurricanes in August and a resulting cold winter. Sure there could be a link, but no one has proved it…yet. But of course everyone always seems to have 1977 as an analog year in their forecasts.
2001 and 2002 for the record