Good Wednesday to one and all and thanks for making the Center one of your stops for weather. We have a bit of a break coming up for the next few days before the pattern goes back to something similar to what brought us the record cold and snow for December.
Even with a brief break ahead… old man winter is having trouble letting go. There is the potential for some light freezing rain across parts of the area tonight into very early Thursday. Moisture will be streaming northward into the state from the southwest later today. The low level cold air in northern and eastern Kentucky will not go quietly into the night and will keep temps near 32 degrees as the moisture moves in. This can result in a few hours of freezing rain for some areas and can lead to some slick travel before readings warm enough for light rain to take over pretty quickly Thursday.
You can follow today’s slug of moisture surging in from the southwest…
High temps today will generally be in the low and mid 30s in the east to low and mid 40s in the west. Highs for Thursday will push into the upper 30s and low 40s east to mid and upper 40s west as showers continue.
A major storm will be rolling out of the rockies late Thursday and into the upper midwest by New Year’s Eve. This will likely have blizzard conditions behind it with a surge of heavy rain and even thunderstorms ahead of it along a cold front. This front will be pushing into the western Ohio Valley as we say goodbye to 2010 and hello to 2011. Check out how the temp map on the GFS model looks not too long after the clock strikes the new year…
That is a heck of a temp gradient working eastward across the region. That front will have plenty of rains with it for later Friday night into New Year’s Day. Temps ahead of the front will be 50ish with 30s moving in quickly behind it for January first. The front should clear the area by Saturday evening with 30s taking over…
Sunday will be a MUCH colder day with highs in the low and mid 30s and lows back into the low and mid 20s with partly sunny skies. There still could be a snow shower or flurry around early in the day before the deepest moisture works well to our east.
This will take us back into a pattern that looks an awful lot like the one we have had for most of December. I have been hitting this hard in recent days and it looks as if a lot of other folks are now beginning to see some of the same things. This is a pattern that is going to be very hard to break and this is potentially setting us up for a winter that can go down with some of the great ones. With the December to Remember just about in the books… we are well long our way to such a winter. Back in November… I started seeing the seeds being sewn for a special December and I posted a lot on that. I am seeing a lot of the same signals showing up as I look ahead into January.
Here is a breakdown on what may be ahead of us…
– Typical January cold moves in for Sunday into much of next week.
– There is a small shot at some overrunning wintry precipitation from late Monday into Tuesday as a system skirts by to the south.
– I am keeping an eye on the second half of next week into the following weekend as there is a growing potential for for a storm to develop and roll out of the southwest U.S. into the southern states. This appears to be a favorable period for a winter storm across the eastern half of the country.
– The amount of blocking the models are showing for the next few weeks is pretty incredible. This will lead to colder and colder shots of air for the middle and end of January with a growing risk of a major arctic outbreak for much of the eastern half of the country.
– Oh yeah… snow threats should be plentiful.
Here is what one famed Climate Analyst thinks the next three months in temps will look like…
This is a GREAT READ into the method behind the forecast.
I will have updates as needed so be sure to check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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Thanks again, CB, for your hard work and dedication to keeping us informed.
Yes, thanks Chris for the non “cookie cutter” approach to the weather, it is appreciated!
Thanks CB! Looks to be a COLD and SNOWY Jan afterall!! Bring on the snow! 😉
I could’nt agree more…I’m lovin the looks of it!!!…. 🙂
seeing some signs for the cold such as another drop in the AO and the gfs ensembles are cold but the ECMWF has normal for days 6-10 and the pattern at day 10 doesn’t look all that cold. we’ll see.
I have never posted but always enjoy reading and probably won’t post again but people get on here and wish for bad weather and say bring on the snow … i have to say that I hope and pray that CB and everyone is wrong about Jan and Feb; I work 6 days a week, get up at 4am and drive 45 minutes to my job to support my wife and kids; I don’t get snow days off or can call in because of weather; It is very hard during snow and ice, so maybe the Good Lord will bless me with an early spring!
Ranger wrote: but people get on here and wish for bad weather and say bring on the snow … UMMM this is a weather blog! thats what we do…and FYI everyone has to work to support thier families, noone is wishing hardship on anyone by no means.
JUST SAYING!…:)
Well, our forecast said “warmer” overnight, and it was, I guess….still we woke up to 24 degrees this morning with overcast skies. Forecast is calling to 41 today for a high, but it is going to take the warm front moving across to do it, I think.
I know where Ranger is coming from; my father used to pour concrete for a livlihood; some winters, he would basically be out of work for four months; was always rough on me cause I loved the Winter and drove me crazy not being able to be excited when snow was in the forecast; but, this time of year, the blog is going to be clogged with those of us that really love Winter and the snow; besides, Ranger, stay around this part of the country long enough and I am sure we will have another one of those Winters where it is nothing but 60 something degrees every day!
I think the snow is absolutely beautiful, but Im really looking forward to the one BIG BIG BIG storm where we get measurements in FEET not INCHES. I understand where you are coming from Ranger, Ive been in your shoes myself. It sucks having to drive in this mess, but please take it easy.
Bring on the snow!!!!
Florida has lots of warm weather lovers, Im sure there is room for more 🙂
BRING on the SNOW!
Amen to that, Ranger! Snow is beautiful and fun from the indoors, but God bless everyone who has no choice but to work in it, or who loses income by not being able to work.
Lost in the desire for the “Big One,” most of us are probably unaware that 2010 will wind up the 8th snowiest calendar year on record in Lexington.
We will finish with 34.3 inches for the calendar year.
Here is the link to the list of snowiest calendar years.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/lexington_cli_pdf/Top_Ten_Snowiest_and_Least_Snowy_Calendar_Years.pdf
This will be the snowiest since 1978, and second snowiest since 1960 (50 years). Look at 1917 though..Wow!
Chris Mercer
Thanks. I just studied that link briefly and realized that “four” of those least snow in a calendar year (years) were years I’ve lived in Lexington. Since 1996
I know, Either learn how to drive in it or move. I have to travel as well to work.
Hey, maybe we can get 2 or3 big one’s and beat 1917!!! 🙂
hey man, give Ranger a break … he has a right to give his opinion and doesn’t need smart remarks – this blog is too good for that!!!
7 of the least snowiest years have come in the past 20 years.
Now that would be something..what is amazing is that 1917 is more than 20 inches above 2nd place!
That’s 5 feet of snow!
i agree with tim. every one is entitled to his or her opinion. he gave his or hers, every one else gave theirs. in for one do not wish no hard ship on any body, but usually when it comes to snow and winter weather, it does not work like that. i for one love the snow around christmas but after that i wish it would warm up to 70 and stay there, but i know my wish is not going to be granted so i live with what the good lord wants me to have. may god bless ypu for your time.
No sense of humor or what, wasn’t taking a shot at anyone, no names where mentioned in my statement!! By the way church is on Sundays, not on weather blogs!
gosh you are full of yourself … don’t come on here bashing peoples opinions, beliefs, church, etc etc … you belong on another blog, take the train DA !!!
It’s a FREE COUNTRY to believe or not believe anything you wish!!!!!
Noticed that too..that’s what makes us finally breaking the Top 10 in a snowiest year so special–hopefully it means the pendulum is swinging back in the snowy direction!
Lets hope so!!!
tod you need to get a life. thank you chris for premitting me to say my piece. may god bless. every one must have cabin fever. getting a little toasty on here, if you know what i mean.
12z GFS ensembles have the NAO tanked.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zensnao.gif
i could not blame ranger if he never posted on here again and as for that matter, my self included. the only thing that keeps me on here is i know this is mr. baileys blog and this is his website to keep us informed.
And take a look at this:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
Looks like AO will plumet too.
The link is not working for me, could ya please repost! Thanks
I am like Ranger, I love to read the comments but never post and that is the reason because you say one little thing and people go apecrap all over you and start bashing your ideas or questions……… I didn’t know Kentucky had so many meteorologists!!!! And to Ranger, I hope you read this, I sure wouldn’t blame you for not posting again but thanks for your comment – at least you showed some guts to post it.
thanks for posting this, tornadolarkin. it is tanking but not to the tune of mid december.
Hope it works this time!!
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zensnao.gif
sorry I am ignorant on this weather stuff, but what does that mean for our upcoming months weather? thanks!!
thanks angie, at least i am not alone with my opinion. btw what religion do u belong to? lol!!!!!!!!!!!!
i better not say, that todd guy will rip me a new one for posting it …haha thanks for the laugh!!!
Thanks for trying but it’s still not working..It says “Remote Linking Disabled: It says if posting to blog please save and attach”. It says a bit more than that. I just couldn’t remember the entire thing, and it wouldn’t let me copy and paste it.
Everyone is entitled to their OWN opinion!
Including me! Your words not mine! OK, I have had lots of fun with you narrow minded folk! on to the weather. Chris, some of folks are taking things way to seriously!
to tornadolarkin, toney did not post that last comment. the real toney spells his name with an “E”. iguess people have nothing better to do than guess peoples intellengence and to dtir trouble. by the way i guess i will go back with the opening phrase that i use to always open up with and that is “hi 1 more time from the town of wayne, wva”. there fore no more confusion. i do not need to use someone elses name.
hi 1 more time from the town of wayne,wva. to answer your question, it is hard to tell but i think that jan. may turn out colder than normal but not as cold as dec. then feb. and march may be normal to a little above. i am talking temps in jan feb and march. as for precip, jan probably normal and then feb. and march above normal. but then again what do i know?
Hi guys.Sunny in Pikeville 42.Just got an alert for freezing rain tonight till 9am tommorow morning.Also a little Ice accumalation.I hate that.Everyone stay safe.
May God Bless all of us snow lovers with 4 feet of Snow! And I hope Ranger wins the lottery! Now Everyones Happy! 🙂
gosh my name is really Tony and i was just typing it like that to show the difference, man everyone is so uptight today …. sorry i pushed the wrong button … i was asking a simple question because i do not know the weather language and was wanting info but forget i even asked anything.
my religion does not permit me to play the lottery. if it snows i can not get to church either. lol!!!!!!
Sorry, I really have no other way, unless you want to look up ralieghwx on google. If you want to do that, just say and I can give you directions to get to it.
I WOULD SAY CERTAIN COMMENTS RAN OLE RANGER OFF … THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN ROLO PULLING A FAST ONE ON US
sorry if i said anthing to offend but the way some people are jabbing i thought someone was trying to use my name to get under others skin if you know what i mean. if you will notice i did answer the question to the best of my feeble minds ability. i love this blog, but some people do not know how to joke without getting personal. my deepest apologies to you TONY.
Now that’s FUNNY, I don’t care who you are!:)
my kid brother got on my computer and changed my name to annonymous and it should read toney. that was not done on purpose.
my name is toney, my kid brother changed my name to annonymous. that was not done on purpose. i am sorry if i have offended you in any way at all. i do think every one has cabin fever and i think everyone nees to cut lose this weekend and do some celebrating with the break in the weather.
I Agree, Don’t take anything I have said on here seriously! I have a weird sense of humor that shows up sometimes! When snow,cold,hot, severe storms ETC. show up, all of you guys on here are very weather pro, Thanks for playin along! HAPPY NEW YEAR! Bloggers 🙂 PEACE
thanks to you and happy new year, my friend
I cant wait on that 20″ we will get in Jan.
just wonted to say that we can wish for snow and hope for snow but we have no control over the weather we just get excited when it snows. just the kid in us. have a happy and safe new year, and thanks chris.
This forecast is much different from the one here. It’s the NWS forecast for Johnson County. Let’s see what happens.
Tonight: A chance of sleet before 4am, then freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday: Freezing rain likely before 8am, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. South wind between 3 and 8 mph.
Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 41. Light south wind.
New Year’s Day: Showers likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 56. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.
Sunday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 19.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 41.
Geez, the blog sounds very hateful today…I do recall Chris giving the play nice reminder not too long ago…
Check out this North-Alaska Weather from Noaa site
…WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST THURSDAY…
THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST THURSDAY.
A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES OF
40 TO 45 BELOW TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS TO 75 BELOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 MPH ON THURSDAY
MAKING THE WIND CHILLS A LITTLE LESS HARSH.
Artic air is building in the north country.???
Hmmm…I’ve been alive for only one of the top ten snowiest winters in Lex, but 6 of the top ten least snowiest winters. Law of averages needs to catch up…
I remember when I was in high school……
First time I posted on here, I got dumped on for just asking a simple question about the National Weather Service. People are more rude on the Internet. You just have to let it roll off you and go on. This blog is still a fun place to be.
yeah me too…lol.. I read today where another long range forecaster is saying we are headed for the winters like we had in the late 70’s!!! 2012-15 would see harsh winters…I remember the winter of 77′ when president carter wanted to go to 4 day/week work. well here is some old video,audio to show you young’ns..lol just how bad it was that yr…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fL7eXnIqUV4
ahhh…the good ole days…
I remember missing the entire month of jan/feb/ school that yr..we had to end up going longer days/saturdays to make up the time..nothing like watching saturday morning cartoons at school..:)..:(
Carla, copy and paste the link in your browser window at the top and hit enter.
It should take you right to it.
I find weather fascinating..be it snow or ice or strong thunderstorms..Really hoping we get another ice storm like last year..Missed out about 30 miles to our north on the big one last year..So maybe this will be the year??
WOW!..We get hated on over snow. I can’t imagine what kind of comments you’re gonna get for wishing for an ice storm.
Nice to see the children of the blog today
Im a big boy..I can take it..Besides i got $8000.00 dollars invested in a backup generator that will almost run the whole house and the thing ain’t been used 1 time..So i want some major ice..Bring it on?
After reading this I don’t think I will ever get my feet warm….lol
Guess we know where they are all spending there Christmas break.
Bring on the snow
Free Enes
Snow yes…. Ice..no way!!! That is just crazy talk.
well maybe a 2 foot wet snow,,that should bring the power lines down??
I remember the winter of 77-78. I was a freshmen at UK an didn’t get to go home to see the family for six weeks. It snowed about 1-2 feet every weekend. UK cancelled classes more than once which rarely happens.
WOW…
These children need to get back in school, and quick…
On behalf of all the “adult” weather freaks, please accept our apologies CB, and keep up the great work..!
LOL! Sounds like you’re just wanting to try out that generator.
Thanks Rhonda! That got it!
Am I missing something? That link above was from NY and PA, not KY. I didn’t see any video from 1977 in KY from that blizzard
really. live through a severe ice storm like 2003 or 2008 and then we’ll see if you feel the same way.
Hi there, sweet layout of the blog man. im an aspiring blogger too. im kinda new though, but i like what you did here. i hope to be able to get as much croud participation as you!
interesting what you got goin on here. could you share a few pointers maybe? im sturggling to get my blog even off the ground. you have my email if you don’t want to post it here for everyone to see
Hello everyone, not been on here for a few days…looks like a little drama on here, some things never change..hehe Have a great thursday.
Son im a whole lot older than what you think..If you lived what i lived through you would call an ice storm wimpy??