Good Friday, everyone. A big temperature spread continues from north to south and this rolls into the upcoming weekend. The weather then grows milder before it turns wilder. It’s a setup that will transition into a harsh winter look, but the timing of that is still a work in progress.
Let’s begin with today. Clouds are fairly common across the state with just a few peeks of sun. Temps stay in the 30s across the northern half of the state and may flirt with 50 in the far south and west.
A weak system rolls eastward across the Tennessee Valley tonight and early Saturday. That leads to a few showers along the Tennessee border counties as the trend on this system is farther south…
Temps come down some behind that for Saturday, but we see another decent north-south temp gradient…
Sunday is a seasonably cold day for the entire state…
Sunday is a seasonably cold day across the entire state…
The pattern turns mild next week with a strong southwest wind kicking up from Monday through the end of the week. We could see a shower or two on Tuesday with a bigger storm system by the end of the week. That one may have 60s and strong storms ahead of it with cold air crashing in behind it as the pattern turns back to winter.
Here’s the Canadian with that late week system into next weekend…
The GFS has a series of strong systems leading us back into a significant winter setup. Again, the details of these systems aren’t even close to being known so we are just looking at the trends. Here’s the GFS from later next week into the following week…
The EURO has a similar look, but the western bias of holding troughs comes into play…
Again, the pattern is going to do a major flip and will likely turn super harsh for a large chunk of the country. How we get there is going to be a task to figure out because the forecast models are having one of the roughest years I can ever remember. I’m not talking with just details… I’m talking about the general look of the pattern. So many flips and flops on the models and the indicies.
I’ll be back with another update later today.
I’ll throw you another update or two later today. I’ll also have a few updates on my Meteorologist Chris Bailey Facebook Page
Make it a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris, Maybe the following article will help explain on what is going on in our Atmosphere Globally. What knowlege I received is that over in Europe, Stratospheric Warming has taken place, which means Arctic Air is flooding the Countries in Europe. Over in our part of the World Stratospheric Cooling has taken place, which means the Arctic Air is ” lock up. ” Just the opposite. A ” Kelvin Wave ” is forming in the Pacific, moving Warmer Waters towards the US West Coast and South America, causing a weaking in our current ENSO / La Nina. As this action moves forward, maybe we will see a phase to ENSO / El Nino ? Really difficult to forecast how our Winter will turn out, with this current development ?
With the current North to Northwest surface wind direction, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario ” Snow Machine ” has really turned on. Making this part of the Country very Snowy. On the West Coast, An Atmospheric River continues to flood out areas of California, plus very Heavy Snows in the High Mountain areas to the East.
https://climateimpactcompany.com/early-january-leading-climate-diagnostics-highly-variable-stratosphere-an-eastward-charging-kelvin-wave-and-strengthening-marine-heatwaves-2/
Here is site displaying current sea surface anomaly data in a more user-friendly manner:
https://www.arcgis.com/home/webscene/viewer.html?layers=fa166ee5a22e449bba49a3315263af69