Good Monday everyone. We are counting down the remaining days of 2010 and beginning to look ahead to early 2011 to see what old man winter may have in store for us. Before the new year gets here… our pattern will relax a bit before reloading for January.

In the short term… we are coming off a white Christmas weekend across the state. Parts of southeastern Kentucky have been pounded by better than 6″ of snow in many areas. Some areas have picked up as much as 9″ of the white stuff and more snow showers and flurries will be possible in these areas today. Track what is left of the flakes here…



Highs today will range from the upper 20s east to middle 30s west.

Cold temps will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday under partly sunny skies. Milder air will begin to surge northward late Wednesday into Thursday and will produce a batch of precipitation. This is very likely to begin as a period of light snow and light freezing rain Wednesday night before changing to rain by early Thursday.

Showers should continue during the day Thursday with temps warming into the low and mid 40s. The final day of the year will end up being a fairly mild one with highs in the 50s with a scattered shower or two.

Our New Year’s Weekend will feature a strong cold front working eastward across the region. This front means our mild spell will last a total of about 2 days before cold air moves back in. This will be quite the clash of air masses that will lead to rain and even some thunderstorms New Year’s Day into early Sunday. Here is what the GFS Ensembles are showing for this weekend…



That would suggest the cold air can catch the back of the departing rains and switch it over to a period of light snow. The pattern suggests we should watch to see if this front can produce a wave of low pressure along it coming in from the south. If that happens… we would have a better chance for some white stuff by later Sunday.

Beyond that… the trough digs back in across the eastern half of the country and the look of the pattern says to watch for systems sneaking through the base of the trough. These can become snow makers for this region as the blocking that has been with us this December looks to continue into much of January.

Speaking of this current pattern… does it tell us anything about the rest of the winter? Just about every single official reporting station in the state is experiencing a top 10 coldest and snowiest December on record. Let’s take Lexington as an example.

Lexington will finish in the top ten(2 years tied giving us 11 actual years) for both cold and snow. Some interesting stats about those years…

– 6 of the 11  coldest Decembers were also on the top ten snowiest list. 

– Of the 11 Decembers… 9 finished with colder than normal overall winters with 3 among the top ten coldest.

– Similarly… 9 of the 11 Decmebers finished with above normal snowfall with 4 among the top ten snowiest.

– 7 of the 9 above normal snowfall winters were much above normal.

Here is what the following January temps looked like across the country based upon top ten coldest Decembers in Lexington…



Here is how the January temps look based upon the top ten snowiest Decembers in Lexington…



Both data sets give a very strong signal for cold in January. It should be noted I omitted December 1989 from the above maps since I consider that month and ensuing January and February to be so extreme as to not to use. That December is the coldest on record around here then flipped into a a scorcher for January and February. Even if we throw that month into the mix… it is not enough to offset the cold signal.

Moral of the story… when we get a cold and snowy December… the winter will usually remember. If you like playing the odds… the data says to take the over for snowfall and the under for temps.

Have a great Monday and take care.