Good Wednesday to one and all. Our wild weather ride is about to kick into high gear with the potential for strong and severe storms on Thursday, with falling temps and some snowflakes later this weekend. I don’t know about you, but I’m over these wild swings.
A couple of showers and rumbles of thunder are moving through the region today. Temps reach the 60s across the state as a strong southwest wind continues to kick in. That’s ahead of a potent storm system across the Mississippi Valley for Thursday. That rolls toward the Great Lakes into Friday, bringing the threat for severe weather along for the ride.
The greatest threat for severe weather may be just to the northwest of Kentucky with some of this trying to sneak into the north and west. The Storm Prediction Center shows this potential well with the Thursday Severe Weather Outlook…
The tornado threat is greatest to our northwest…
Areas of damaging winds have a better chance to show up in Kentucky…
Some of these storms may end up producing large hail, especially across the north…
Locally heavy downpours show up with these storms that exit the east by Friday morning. The rest of Friday looks like a pretty nice day, albeit windy with falling temps from west to east.
The low to start the weekend likely stays to our southeast, but the upper level system dropping in on a strong northwest flow means some snow showers and flurries from Saturday night through Monday.
Here’s the Euro with this setup…
Light accumulations will be possible for some Sunday night and early Monday.
Temps will struggle to get above freezing for Sunday and Monday, resulting in some wicked wind chills. This animation goes from 7am Sunday to 7am Monday…
Looking into the closing week and change of February and into the start of March, this isn’t exactly a stable pattern…
Winter isn’t done, unfortunately.
Another update or two comes your way later today. I will have updates on my Meteorologist Chris Bailey Facebook Page
Until then, here are your tracking tools for the day…
Make it a wonderful Wednesday and take care.
I’m Done With This Winter Too Chris. It’s Turning Out To Be Another Uneventful Winter In The Way Of Major Snowstorms. It’s Been This Way For Several Years. I Blame The Long Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
In Louisville we have had 2 of the snowiest winters back to back that I can remember in my 52 years,
In 1969 – 70, I Was A Senior In High School. On The First Official Day Of Winter, We Had Our First Snow. Perfect Timing By Mother Nature. Followed By A ” White Christmas ” And A Major Snowstorm On New Years Eve. Snowstorms Followed Until Spring Weather Arrived In Mid – March. The Summer Weather Was Cool That Year 1970.
I don’t think anyone said winter was done, lol.
I’m seeing talk of a super el niño coming this year. Thoughts?
One thing would do is throw a damper on tropical activity, since one feature of a super El Nino is a reversal of the east to west trade winds. A westerly would tend to shear any storms that make their way out of the equatorial Atlantic, and push the remnants away from land.
Another thing it would do is amp up snow chances next winter. I know that’s probably not on your wish list!
ENSO Tends To Lead PDO Cycling.
Yes, There Is Jeff, But If The PDO Doesn’t Change To The Positive, El Nino Will Not Have Any Reaction With The Atmosphere. We Will Just Have The Negative, And The Subtropical Jet Needs The Positive To Produce Snowstorms. Last Time The PDO Was Positive Was In 2015 El Nino. A Snowy Winter Resulted.
Atmospheric warming has diminished the influence of the PDO as a predictor of regional climate, especially as it applies to determining ENSO phase. It’s basically been locked in a negative range for nearly 3 decades, and we’ve had several El Nino phases during that period. The predominant effect of a negative PDO on north american climate is a continuation of drought in the western US., which has presented during La Nina, El Nino, and ENSO-Neutral.
Joe, Do You Think That The PDO Will Continue To Be In The Negative Phase ?
Joe, Here’s My Answer : )
https://www.google.com/search?q=is+the+pdo+not+as+responsive+due+to+global+warming+anymore&sca_esv=babc3dbce6714cb9&sxsrf=ANbL-n74nycInwCXi670OpJO1bUpJOZMDA%3A1771430857060&source=hp&ei=yOOVadP6PJO0qtsPkrS76AM&iflsig=AFdpzrgAAAAAaZXx2TnrI9yXsB6y5fzaso6jQ706p83r&oq=Is+The+PDO+Not+As+Responsive+Due+To+Global+Warming&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IjJJcyBUaGUgUERPIE5vdCBBcyBSZXNwb25zaXZlIER1ZSBUbyBHbG9iYWwgV2FybWluZyoCCAAyBRAhGKABMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKsCMgUQIRirAkinzARQAFizigRwAXgAkAEAmAGZAaAB_DCqAQQ3LjQ0uAEByAEA-AEBmAI0oALWMsICCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIFEC4YgATCAhEQLhiABBixAxjRAxiDARjHAcICDhAAGIAEGLEDGIMBGIoFwgIOEC4YgAQYsQMY0QMYxwHCAg4QLhiABBixAxiDARiKBcICCBAAGIAEGLEDwgIFEAAYgATCAggQLhiABBixA8ICBBAAGAPCAgYQABgWGB7CAggQABgWGAoYHsICCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFwgIFEAAY7wXCAggQABiABBiiBJgDAJIHBDYuNDagB_bZAbIHBDUuNDa4B9MywgcJNi4zMi4xMy4xyAdwgAgA&sclient=gws-wiz
My Guess Is The Snowy Winters Of The Past, Will Never Return. Sad For The Snow Lovers Out There.
Being A Snow Lover, Meteorology Is No Longer An Interest, But Boring. No more Major Snowstorms To Track Across The CONUS : )
https://climateimpactcompany.com/northwest-u-s-hydro-report-new-vs-old-pacific-decadal-oscillation-2/
Here’s More On The Above Subject : )
https://climateimpactcompany.com/weekly-enso-diagnostics-report-oceanic-la-nina-has-ended-subsurface-warming-validates-el-nino-forecasts-for-mid-year-but-atmosphere-not-responding-yet-2-2/
Everything That I’ve Said On Chris’s Blog, Was Based On Past Weather Events. They No Longer Apply.
The End.