Good Tuesday everyone. If you wanna look up a classic winter from years gone by… you will be hard pressed to find as many with such a tremendous start like this one is having. Many areas got in on more light accumulating snows overnight into this morning and we will soon turn our attention to Christmas weekend and a Winter Storm Threat.
More on the weekend storm in a bit as we have some wintry weather with us today. Light snow and even some freezing rain will be noted across parts of central and eastern Kentucky this morning. This is likely to cause some slick roads… especially in the north and northeast where temps will hang around freezing for much of the day. Farther south… temps should warm just above freezing meaning some light rain and drizzle would be noted. Here is your regional radar to track it all…
Temps today should range from close to 32 in the north and east to 40s in the west and extreme south central parts of the state…
Current Temps
Colder air will seep back in from north to south early Wednesday. Some light snow and flurries will be with us into Wednesday night with a very light accumulation possible in the east.
We continue with our Winter Storm Threat for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. The models are quite similar with the setup and progression of this storm. Low pressure will develop across the plains states Thursday then ride eastward across the lower Tennessee Valley Friday then turn the corner and head up the east coast as it bombs out along the way.
The GFS and Canadian models are very close to one another in what they are showing and make the most sense to me at the moment. Here is the GFS precipitation type forecast…
The GFS gives the state a good shot of snow Christmas Eve into Christmas Day with a significant round of backlash snows kicking in later Christmas Day into Sunday. I am showing another GFS total snowfall map for the heck of it…
Don’t get too attached to that map as it is only a snapshot in time of what ONE run is thinking.
The Canadian Model is similar in how all this plays out…
Man… that turns into a monster storm along the east coast with a paralyzing snowstorm for much of the mid atlantic into New England. The models appear to have picked a west east track to our south and have pretty much locked into that solution. The new European Model is even farther south and takes the low all the way into the Florida Panhandle before turning it almost due north up the east coast. I do not trust this solution as it is all alone and the model appears to be holding the southwestern US energy a bit too long which is a bias of the model. It struggles with timing on ejecting energy out of the southwest and I believe that is what it’s doing right now. Let’s say the model is correct… then it still gives us a few to several inches of snow Christmas Day into Sunday. I don’t think anyone would complain about that solution. 
Random thought time…
– A White Christmas is all but certain at this point.
– Windy conditions will accompany the Christmas Day and Sunday snows leading to some blowing and drifting.
– Temps will turn frigid once again from Christmas Day into early next week.
– The pattern remains loaded with snow threats into the last week of the year and the first week of 2011. Arctic shots of air should be common.
That’s all I have for you this go around. More updates will be coming later today so be sure to check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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2.2” of new snow here in covington tonight CB!!! very wet snow sticking to all the trees. season/month total now at 12.5 inches for us…
Thanks Chris had a nice little snow tonight .You are in the sweet spot aren’t you lol?
How did Wynter do? Nice snow tonight.
winter weather advisory boone,kenton,campbell…really nice snowfall here along the river.
Drive carefully.
FLEMING-BATH-ROWAN-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-
FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.FLEMINGSBURG.OWINGSVILLE.MOREHEAD.
FRENCHBURG.SANDY HOOK.WEST LIBERTY.PAINTSVILLE.CAMPTON.
SALYERSVILLE.PRESTONSBURG.JACKSON.HINDMAN.HAZARD.
WHITESBURG.INEZ.PIKEVILLE
1251 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010
.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING.
THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW & FREEZING DRIZZLE.WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE DAWN. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL THEN CHANGE TO PLAIN DRIZZLE BY LATE MORNING
AS TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMB.
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.FOLLOWED BY A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE.
I guess the only thing in doubt now is how much moisture will the storm bring. Locally it has been many years since I can remember that a winter snow (no chance of ice) storm seems to be a sure thing. The euro is the only major model left projecting a chance of an insignificant accumulation in some parts of the state. I am now officially in the canoe or the bobsled.
The GFS totals just keep going up and up in my part of the State. The one earlier only had 1-2 inches and now this one shows 4-5 now. Must be picking up the mostly all snow event now.
Thanks Chris!
I’m thoroughly confused with that GFS map though…..It looks like all the 12 plus snows are way way north….Yet there is talk of the low going too far south into TN….If some of the models are thinking that the low goes way south, why would the heavy snows be WAY north?
Thats exactly what im thinking. With each new model run the higher amounts have been pushing south. Maybe today into Wed they will all come into agreement and we will know more of the exact amount. We should start seeing Winter Storm Watches coming out on Wed evening.
I am so happy I found this site. I am always checking the weather and this is the best site I have found. Thanks Chris for keeping us updated on the weather in such detail.
This is my news and weather station since I have satelite I only get Knoxville stations. Channel 8 from Knoxville. Here is his forecast for now for Christmas…
Based on model data from the 12z run of the GFS.
The positive trend for a “White Christmas” continues.
…
Here’s what the longer range GFS (Global Forecast System) model is yielding 5 days before Christmas.
Knoxville
0.25 inches of RAIN on Christmas Eve
followed by 0.5 to 1.0 inches of SNOW on Christmas and the Day After Christmas
Crossville
0.28 inches of RAIN on Christmas Eve
followed by 1.0 to 2.0 inches of SNOW on Christmas and the Day After Christmas
Morristown
0.12 inches of RAIN on Christmas Eve
followed by 1.5 to 2.5 inches of SNOW on Christmas and the Day After Christmas
London, KY
Christmas Eve night into Christmas and the Day After Christmas
2.0 to 5.0 inches of SNOW on Christmas and the Day After Christmas
—–Chief Meteorologist David Aldrich
He said the 2-5 is also for the Middlesboro area as well.
Umm
Yea Laura……It’s quite addicting!
I foresee myself checking for updates way too often. Here I am checking on my phone in the middle of the night.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
Hot off the press, 6z GFS snow totals through Saturday afternoon. White Christmas isn’t going to be a dream this year for most of the state. Once again don’t take that verbatim as what’s going to happen… just some eye candy for everyone.
right now the low is pushing south..and it seems to be favoring that way, this could be a all snow event with maybe alittle rain.
This December is going to challenge all-time records for the state of Kentucky. I just did an article about it for the newspaper. Will maybe blog about it after the first of the year. Wow, what a December to remember.
2.5 inches of snow fell last night here in northern Magoffin Co.
What newspaper? Is it online?
This is a tricky situation with northern and southern branches coming together to form “our” storm. I’m a bit worried that the Euro is correct with its far south solution and we’ll end up with an inch or less in KY. The Euro is considered by many to be “the” model of choice so that worries me. Nevertheless, I’ll take the far southern route and an inch of fluff on Christmas Eve over a cold rain anytime. Of course, I’d much rather have 4″+ of fluff but snow beggars can be to choosy! 🙂
I am just waiting to start hearing and seeing “Significant Snow Accumulations Possible” start to show up I’m all the forecasts! Off to Owensboro for th day! Have a good day all!!
W.W.
Morning, all. Thanks for the update, Chris. Hope the ballet was better than advertised! 😉 (I am SURE it was!)
Wow! A white Christmas! I love it!
Looking forward to seeing your thoughts as it comes closer.
WXman, let me know if you do the story you were talking about. I would really like to read it!
Be safe, and have a GREAT Tuesday, everyone! Work calls….
woke up with over 2″ of snow in northern Magoffin Co.
must be nice,,,this Tim went to bed with snow falling and a dusting on the ground and woke up to rain and wet ground and no snow…:(
foggy
drizzle
35
with no new snow here in my area of knox co…
ugh…i like chris’s snowfall map better..lol..it had 4-5 inches in my back yard ..this one only has 1 inch…
I rarely hear “certainty” this far out. Why is there so much confidence in this storm this far out as opposed to other storms this far out? I’m definitely not trying to be negative at all…..I’m just so used to hearing that with past storms. If we end up getting ANOTHER snow storm this will be just C R A Z Y! In my entire life (the last 14 being here in Lexington), Prior to that Western NC, I don’t ever remember having major snowstorms until January.
Agreed—Lexington now up to 9.2 inches this month, 9.6 on the season. It is the 8th snowiest December. If we get to 10.8 inches, it will be the snowiest December since 1939!
I remember several winters in a row where our seasonal total never passed 10 inches!
Is your blog public? Would love to be able to view it as well! Can you please let us know how to access it if it is public! Thank you!
MARK because the models rarly are in agreement like they are now only 4 days out, that not faaar off.
the rolo meter this morning has jump off thew charts with a 75 percent chance of a white christmas will 6 plus inches of NEW snowfall over this weekend.
classic old school track with the low moving to or south and then digging in vutting the corner. this storm could turn out to be a MONSTER for the area, but right now i give it 30 percent of seeing a foot or more with sytstem.
No expert here, but I’m thinking it is because the models seems to be pretty much in agreement. With the track so far into Tennessee, we don’t have the border issues we normally have with the changeover to rain/snow/freezing rain.
well I saw where another forecaster still is pounding away that the Christmas storm will be a northern ky. storm…(whatever)… and rain/ice in central and southern ky..( I HOPE NOT)..
I was looking at the webcam shots out of Lex. and Pikeville that area as a whole..If it didnt snow on christmas has enough snow now to have a white christmas..quite amazing..concidering southern and western ky..has bare ground…I think it would be safe to say n.eastern ky has been the sweet spot for snow…
MARK models in winter time rarly agree on a storm track, but right now they do.
75 percent change of 6-12 inch snowfall for a wide area of SE/E KY
a TRUE WHITE CHRISTMAS isnt snow on ground from 10 days ago, its SNOW FLYING AND LAYINGG on said period CHRISTMAS!!!!
Oh, the excitement builds!!! Now, if we just knew how much we would be getting, travel plans could be made.
MarkLex, I’ve lived in Eastern KY all my life, with the exception of about 6 years…(without telling my exact age, let’s say around 50 years, lol)
We use to have snow like this in December almost every year when I was growing up.
My grandmother told me that the river used to ice over in Dec. and people would use it as a means of travel all winter.
IMHO, I think the weather cycle is going back around (no, I’m not a GW believer.)
Everyone be careful driving and stay safe.
NWS conciders a white Christmas as long as there is at LEAST 1″ of snow on the ground, they dont care if its been there for a month…
….
but im like you I want to see it flying in the air..
Have to disagree with you there, Rolo. Snow is snow, and right now in my area it’s just beautiful.
But, hey, everyone is entitled to their opinion, and even if we disagree we are still blog buddies, lol.
Any chance at all this system shifts enough that western KY gets a shot at more than just a couple of inches?
does anyone think snow total predictions will be given before tomorrow?
It’s just a brief column showing how our current December matches up with December 1989 (which holds many records in the LEX area). Will be in The Anderson News tomorrow. The blog isn’t ready yet but yes it’ll be public. The website is a new work in progress.
I will definently read our newpaper tomorrow. 🙂
Rolo your as consistent as the models. You’ll change your mind another 10 or 12 times until the day it happens.
NWS in Jackson Ky says, what storm?
FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD CENTERS AROUND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT PHASES WITH A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL EAST CONUS TROF. THE 21.00Z SUITE OFFERS NEW
AND INTERESTING SOLUTIONS WITH A DECENT SPREAD BETWEEN THE
EURO…GFS…AND CANADIAN. IN GENERAL…ALL OF THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WHILE DEEPENING
THE LOW AND TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST…BUT STILL EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE TROF ALONG
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIP
TYPE. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS LINES UP WELL WITH MOST OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS…AND ALONG WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN
SOLUTION…HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERALL THEME OF
A WHITE BUT POTENTIALLY MESSY CHRISTMAS.
WITH THE SLOWER TREND…HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO LOW END CHANCE FOR
THE ONSET OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY…AND RAISED THEM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY LATER ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM. HAVE BOOSTED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THIS
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME WHICH HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENTLY
ADVERTISED FOR PRECIP. FOLLOWING THE GFS…P-TYPE GENERALLY LOOKS TO
START OUT AS RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON…WITH A
SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES ON
SUNDAY. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PUT ANY NUMBERS OUT FOR SNOWFALL
TOTALS…BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LOOKING LIKE A SAFE BET. MID AND LOWER
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GOOD FEED OF GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY SO WILL KEEP THE FLURRIES GOING THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA…WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER
THE USUAL HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BEGIN
BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO END THE PERIOD…BRINGING A
WELCOME RELIEF TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN SEEN THIS MONTH.
That’s because the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has gone negative. The PDO reflects the basin wide temperature profile of the Pacific ocean. It turned negative in January 2008.
The cycle lasts around 30 years. We just came out of the positive phase which began around 1980 and produce all of the warm winters we endured.
That’s always a good sign, at least for this year. I have never seen a group of forecasters be more wrong. I’m not sure they have called any storm correctly. By Friday, they will finally jump aboard the snow train.
Thanks, Robbie. So my guess about the weather cycle was a bit correct?
And also, if lMK is saying its gonna bea significant winter storm this early, u know somethings up.
Does anyone know if the Euro ensembles support the far south track of the Euro operational?
The NWS discussion this morning says the northern stream should be a bit stronger than the southern stream and that makes the Euro solutions less likely.
Do they ever forecast anything right in Jackson? 1-2 inches is laughable.
Heck a Knoxville station is giving us here in Southeast KY up to 5 inches of snow.
NAM and GFS are colder in the 12Z runs. Now it appears this would be an ALL SNOW event for all of Kentucky. 4-6″ possible in central KY? Possibly…
Hi Wxman..I always enjoy reading your thoughts and hope you can help me. Any idea on what southern KY is looking at for accumulations. I would hate for my brother to cancel his Christmas trip home just for 1-2 inches…I know it would be a guess this far out, but any thoughts are appreciated.
The 12z GFS is coming down right now and is coming on board with the idea of a more southern storm track than what it’s previous runs had been showing.
The 12z NAM is showing a strong and slower system and it is very close to this morning’s 0z Euro run. When the NAM and Euro agree, my money usually goes down towards a solution along those lines.
What do you think for Southeastern KY? How much do you see for this whole event from Fri-Sun?
I was checking out wave 3 blog yesterday. And if i heard the met correctly he was reporting that the gfs snow map was confusing due to the weather event from last night. Evidently, the map is using the totals for the whole week. Now I could be incorrect but that is the way I interpret it.
MJ…now would be a good time to chime in…
Why isnt anyone giving out the corret amount of snow yet:)
So, is this storm going to miss Louisville to the south? I haven’t looked the maps, but the Euro takes the Low through the panhandle. I don’t see how that brings much snow to the state.
by what shane just posted, that would bode well for southern ky. to get hammered… those tracks would favor the Euro solution of a more southerly track…funny TWC was showing the two different storm tracks this morning, and if the Euro plays out…central and eastern ky…was in a 3-6+” snow range..and if the gfs solution won it was still a 1-4″ so..its sort of a win,win situation…although the more southerly track would ensure southern ky. would’nt have to deal with the MESS OF ICE/SLOP we’ve dealt with in the past 2 or 3 events…
If it takes a more southern track what will that mean for the Louisville area?
So Eastren ky will get 3-6 inches of snow.
well if it goes too far south less snow..
because it is still to far out and not sure WHERE the storm is going to go!
So, the latter would be good for snow, I assume?
TWEET QUESTION:…What do you think about the southward trend?..Im not sold yet…
Chris’s reply:
Not like the euro shows…
so there’s some heads up…
Sounds good Tim! So we could see 4-6 inches for a good avg?
the track will be about 75-100 milles south of ky and it will be HAMMER TIME FOR THE SE. and east.
looking over things and adding my thoughts up the roloWHITE REDBNECK REAL WHITE CHRISTMAS is at 95 percent.
Rolo you said 2 days ago thier wouldnt be a white christmas now you are laping thier will be.
ill give u ammounts, as of right now if it was this fri sat im looking at 8-12 inches with more possible. storm going get stronger as we get closer.
its gunna rain, this storm will be to warm come tomorrow night.
What the crap do you know.
the ratios could run higher than 10:1 with temperatures in the 20’s. that’s how we would see 4 or more inches.
I just looked the 12Z GFS 500 mb low track and it brings the low right along the southern border of Tennessee. I wouldn’t want it to go much farther south, but it looks pretty good to me.
This is what Channel 8 put out last night. Said Middlesboro would be in the same area as London. Also would be a all snow event here.
Based on model data from the 12z run of the GFS.
The positive trend for a “White Christmas” continues.
…
Here’s what the longer range GFS (Global Forecast System) model is yielding 5 days before Christmas.
Knoxville
0.25 inches of RAIN on Christmas Eve
followed by 0.5 to 1.0 inches of SNOW on Christmas and the Day After Christmas
Crossville
0.28 inches of RAIN on Christmas Eve
followed by 1.0 to 2.0 inches of SNOW on Christmas and the Day After Christmas
Morristown
0.12 inches of RAIN on Christmas Eve
followed by 1.5 to 2.5 inches of SNOW on Christmas and the Day After Christmas
London, KY
Christmas Eve night into Christmas and the Day After Christmas
2.0 to 5.0 inches of SNOW on Christmas and the Day After Christmas
—–Chief Meteorologist David Aldrich
It will be intresting to see dr.goodrich’s write-up at the end of the month for the kentucky climate center. It most certainly well for the bluegrass.
still to far out to use nam.
VERY,VERY INTERESTING…weather events over the past 3 decades…like the 85 blizzard, 87 april snowstorm, 93 blizzard and on and on tornadoes,flooding…very good article, that would be a good print off sheet for future references to storms gone by…:) Thanks NWS in JKL for this..
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=61421&source=0
still have another day of waiting as the storm won’t enter the upper air network untill wednesday. I would advise caution before focusing in on totals untill then. right now rough estimates would work such as 50% chance for totals of 4 inches or more.
Thanks Mitch!
Yeah, I’m heading to extreme Western KY for the holidays. We need some Christmas snow there for my girls. Gonna be upset if everyone else gets a good snow and we don’t have anything!
A moment ago Kevin at wave 3 blogged. He gave his interpretation about the 12z runs from the nam a& gfs. He thinks the nam has the low to far south anyway here is the linkhttp://blogs.wave3.com/weather_blog/
I don’t think this will be a snowfall that will make travel impossible for us. People will just have to take it easy on the roadways.
do we really need responses like this? you’ve only been on a short time, why not lightne up a bit. we all try to get along on here. it’s just weather, for crying out loud.
The rolo-coaster is about to take off!
Robbie – is the theory that as the low tracks further south, it also takes precip potential with it?
Go troll somewhere else…These people are very helpfull and nice…
no one knows yet!
How about spreading some Christmas cheer to your fellow bloggers?
Check out his website http://snowday.community.officelive.com/default.aspx
To me thats a too far north track than what it will take. Southern KY?
Thanks for the answers!!
not to throw a damper on this storm but I am not sold on accumulating snows. Yes I think flurries/snow showers are a given for right now and do not doubt that a bit but this could easily become a TN valley storm. I look at it like the perfect storm at the perfect time…could it really happen especially for areas between lexington and somerset that get missed on a very regular basis? Will a solid snow finally hit just in time for Christmas? My gut tells me no.
Seems they’ve seen that northern trend so many times in the past when it comes to storms here that they’re betting on it now… BLAH!
In other words Tommy, a visit from the Ghost of Christmas Past?!
7.4 quake off coast of Japan. Tsunami warnings issued.
yea I am very suspicious of this storm.
I would love a white Christmas, but would also love NOT to have ice or freezing rain. I would rather do without the snow … the ice would ruin travel plans, last minute shopping, just about anything!!! Seems like London/Corbin is always in the ICE path when forcasted.
I agree with you Tommy. We fine citizens here in Lincoln county always get the scraps when it comes to big snows. It has to be a perfect storm for us to get anything over 4 inches. I say we’ll get a couple inches tops. I hope I’m wrong though.
where did you hear this from ??
Yes. Normally, a track along the KY/TN border is good for snow, but the cold air has been shallow and WAA has been a problem. This track, along the southern border of TN should keep it all snow here in KY. Unless a major arctic shot forces the track south, I don’t think it goes much farther south.
Originally on WAVE weather blog, confirmed on MSNBC. Update says widespread tsunami not likely, fortunately.
Its all over Twitter and CNN..
I just heard it on TWC..7.4 mag. on an island off of japan that was 9miles deep…but they said they werent sure about sunami warnings though…
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html
I grew up near Chicago and I really do miss a white Christmas. When I first moved down here ten years ago I didn’t realize now much I missed all the snow. Well maybe the snow gets a little too much up there at times. Like having a six foot brown wall on each side of the road. So far this December it kind of feels like being home.
I bought my son a sled the other day I hope we get enough to let him test it out. I would also like to build a snowman. Building and igloo is probably too much to ask in Kentucky though you never know what January and February will bring.
Everyone one here seems like they really love the weather. I like watching the weather but I don’t know much about the maps you are all talking about. I was wondering if there is any other good websites you recommend so I can learn more about these. I have the weather channel app on my iphone. Anyone know of any other good apps.
Thanks Laura