Good Tuesday afternoon gang. Our Christmas Weekend Winter Storm Threat is still there as the elusive White Christmas is firmly in our grips at this point. The question is… how much snow will fall? More on that in just a bit.

The little snow producer last night was an overachiever across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Snow amounts of around 2″ were common in a lot of places. The atmosphere is primed right now to snow anytime it gets the chance to do so. That is a sure sign of a special winter and this start has been nothing short of amazing.

It looks like another light snowfall maker could be with us later Wednesday into Wednesday night across the eastern half of the state. Something to watch for as temps come way down once again.

Looking ahead to Christmas weekend… the models continue to advertise a colder setup across this region leading to an all snow event from Christmas Eve through the weekend. The exact track and strength of the low are still up in the air a bit… but a general consensus of a west to east track across the lower Tennessee Valley or just a bit south of that is emerging. For a storm to track like that… it means come good cold air must be in place around here and it is that cold that should lead to higher snow to liquid ratios.

The new GFS was the weakest of the bunch with the low pressure and did not show it turning into a monster up the east coast. That said… it still produces significant snows for many this weekend…



The new Canadian Model looks similar to last night’s run of the European Model with a farther southward tracking low before turning up the coast. I still maintain this looks to be an unlikely track as the shortwave energy moving out of the southwestern states should eject out a bit quicker leading to a less suppressed look. That said… the Canadian model still spits out several inches of snow…




The hot off the presses European Model has either lost its marbles or is going to score a big time coup. It now takes this low so far to our south that only southern Kentucky gets in on a light accumulating snowfall while giving the Carolinas a paralyzing snowstorm. Let me once again say the major bias of this model is to hold the shortwave energy back across the southwest too long. When it does that… it leads to big downstream issues in terms of phasing and timing. I am NOT in the European camp with this one as I think it has some serious issues.

As is usually the case… we will have to get within 48 hours of this storm to get a total handle on track, timing and strength.

Another update will come your way later this afternoon so check back. Take care.