Good Tuesday evening everyone. As many of you know… the blog is a no waffle zone and I try not to serve up anything other than hash browns. Sometimes they get burned.. but they are always scattered, smothered and covered. 
I often use the Waffle House analogy when talking about computer model forecasts of big storms from several days out. Models will ALWAYS go back and forth with regard to track, precipitation and strength. This is why it amazes me when people start talking exact snow totals from 4 or 5 days out of any potential snow system. You are just asking for trouble because you will have to waffle back and forth based on the latest model data. I like to take the approach to alert you guys of what may be ahead without getting specific until I feel I have a good handle on the situation and not because of what one run of one model is telling me.
I have always been one of the first to put out a first call map… but it appears there are a lot of sources now trying to one up each other by putting out a snowfall map 5 and 6 days ahead of a storm. Hey… if that floats your boat then do it. But… be sure to have plenty of syrup ready for the waffles. This isn’t meant to bash anyone in particular as I am only going by what I read from you guys in the comments section.
The blog continues to be in Winter Storm THREAT mode for Christmas Weekend. As the models argue among themselves on track and strength of a storm that isn’t even born yet out west… it’s best to wait until later Wednesday or early Thursday before getting too specific.
Here is what I think I know…
– It is going to snow Christmas Eve into Christmas Day and most, if not all, should enjoy a White Christmas.
– This will be an all snow event.
– Snow showers and squalls should be rather common from late Christmas Day into Sunday and Monday.
– A shot of arctic air will move in during this same time as winds crank up.
What I don’t yet know…
– The track and strength of the low.
– Exactly how much snow will fall during this storm and which part of the state will get the heaviest snowfall.
– When the accumulating snows will start.
Outside of all that… this storm is going as planned! 
haha
I will continue to post the snowfall forecasts from some of the models for entertainment purposes only… at least right now. That said… the GFS continues to show a nice swath of snows across the state through Christmas Night…
The NAM only goes out as far as Christmas Eve, but you can clearly see a streak of accumulating snows working eastward…
I will have a full update coming later tonight after I get a good look at what the models are showing… but it won’t be until tomorrow or early Thursday that the eventual truth with this storm will start to show up.
On a side note… the blog police are now on full alert so please be nice to one another or I will be handing out some bans as an early Christmas present.
Take care.
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Once more, thanks for all that you do concerning the weather…..will be interesting how this all plays out…..very soupy fog here in Lawrenceburg as of 8:40…..I suggest we all strap up for a rollcoaster of a ride over the next several days.
CB, thanks so much for the update, it is appreciated!
Thanks for the update CB, looking forward to seeing what the model runs have to say later tonight, and of course what your take on them will be
Thanks, Chris. I like waffles, butnot on here….but I do thank you for the update, and I am looking forward to see what your thoughts are on the next update, and on from there.. The possibilities of a white Christmas are, indeed, exciting! Just trying to wait and see what you have to say about it.
thanks for all you do for us here, Chris. Waiting with chocolate chip cookie breath for the next update! 😀
This GFS was ugly looking. lol.. Cant wait for the next one.
Ya here what he said? Tone it down and play nice or yer all getting a nice blog ban for an early Christmas present or coal in yer stockings! Well on the bright side it will likely be KY coal and not made in China!
Move North models! Move North!!
Wow a waffle from the waffle house would be great right about now.
I dont understand all this….. The NWS as of now is only calling for 2-5 inches in SE KY by sunday. Why does the weather channel and NWS have the low tracking along the Gulf of Mexico already and it is still days out??? All month we have hoped storms moved farther south so ky can get in on some serious snow, now models are too far south. Here I am complaining though when it is still days out….. hopefully we can get a thumper and not get the shaft as usual. Weather……gotta love it.
hey! no talk of cookies without sharing!
I’m liking that GFS SAM
It also looks as if the NAM has the low tracking farther north than the GFS. I don;t get how the NWS JKL has the low going to the GULF OF MEXICO???
The Kentucky Weather Chat room is only a click away>> Click My Name Above <<
..Been reading your blog daily for several years…You are right on the money!! You are my number one source for weather in southeast ky….Keep up the good work!!
Maybe, they like the euro model
If MJ is lurking, did the Euro ensembles support the operational track of the 12Z run? A Miller A storm is fine, but it seems a bit out of character considering the tracks so far, but never to late to start a new trend, right.
One thing I have learned from reading this blog is that the models “waffle” a lot, lol.
They are nice tools for the weather, but nothing is set in stone.
Once I realized that what will happen, will happen, models or not.
Think it has something to do with God and Mother Nature…
I know huh? Seeing the pic and thinking about waffles got me jonesing for waffles too! HAHAHA!
umm…because it is NWS JKL and they are batting .000 for the season. They don’t want to endanger their perfect season.
The new NAM 0Z not good at all for most of Kentucky. Tenn sees some accum but for most of kentucky not much at all. This storm is being sucked into the gulf of mexico. Unbelievable!
Chris,
Thanks for keeping the site “clean” and for putting the speculators in their place. Integrity is the name of the game. Thanks again!!!!
They havent waffled much on this storm, its all but over except a few flurries for kentucky now
A very disappointing run for sure. It look good around the 70 hour mark then it dramatically flops. Wait to see the nam run at the 12z. The euro might be in the driver seat.
Just got home a bit ago. In downtown and northern Lexington, it is pretty foggy, with a light rain and 34 degrees. I’m guessing if it keeps this up, we will need to be concerned about the possibility of black ice forming overnight. Just wanted to throw that out there since everyone is focused on the weekend.
Maybe so, kentucky…but MJ said in an earlier post that the storm hadn’t even hit the west coast yet and to not throw it out.
Guess we will just have to wait and see.
CB is my only WEATHER MAN here in Clark County. When CB puts out his map for first call I call family and freinds. For about a year they now call me to see what the weather is up to. I just forward CB’s forcast. Have a Great Christmas Chris
I hope here in Lou we get that inch from lake Mi. moisture (lol). If this storm is a bust, we are on our way to another losing season in the snow dept. in the Lou & Lex area.
Poor poor JKL NWS. In their AFD, they had this to say in one paragraph:
OVERALL…WITH THE GIVEN QPF FORECAST AND A MOSTLY LIKELY SUFFICIENT
SUPPLY OF COLDER AIR…THIS GUARANTEES AN ALL SNOW EVENT.
And this in the very next paragraph:
AT ONSET FRIDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE SOME WARMER AIR IN PLACE SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THEN TO RAIN
AND SNOW BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
In other words, don’t listen to us because we don’t know squat.
Shame on you guys trying to spoil our Christmas snow saying just flurries but the sad part is these model are just likely to be right……
so are we just not going to get anything out of this system?
Well the new models just came out. Looks like all the snow is going south of us. Looks to be sunny here now and highs in the 50’s.
Morgan Co will be in a thaw out.
I know 🙁 I thought this was our year for a white Christmas! 🙁
Me too, oh well there’s always hoping for next time.
LOL Highs in the 50’s with snow to the south….talk about one heck of a messed-up looking weather map!!
You guys are too much. lol
You guys that are complaining about the new NAM, #1 it isn’t in it’s range yet and #2 it is slower in slinging moisture into KY. 84 hours is as far out as it goes and the moisture is just in western KY during that time period. Not sure why everyone is going crazy about it?
Carla, Tyler- scroll back up and read CB’s post. 🙂
The 0z gfs has not been posted on the cyber net at this moment. It will be curious to see if it is trending south. Or if it stays on the same course from earlier runs. If your in the snow camp for xmas you better hope for a decent run.
Good point, Justin. This is what is in CB’s post above:
“I will have a full update coming later tonight after I get a good look at what the models are showing… but it won’t be until tomorrow or early Thursday that the eventual truth with this storm will start to show up.”
The trend is the problem. All day, we’ve seen slower and more southern routes. This is disappointing, but we live in an awful place for snow. Strange as it may seem, powerful storms often bring us rain or snow to the south. Crazy.
It’s okay, I understand. I was joking with them.
Because the snow has only reached w.ky at 7am xmas morning. I might be wrong but what i have been reading all day at different sights was that the euro model is slower and thats why it has the low way down in the Fl. panhandle. Please give me some evidence not to be optimistic.
Yeah, for the most they do.
clearly holding 500 mb energy further southwest like the euro longer.
vis down to 1/10th mile here in versailles from fog. surprised a dense fog adv wasn’t discussed by nws.
Just to let everyone know that doesnt get in the chat room. This post was nothing but a joke. lol
is this good or bad for snow.
The Indianapolis news showed the heavy snow going right through Kentucky, with lighter totals northwest of the Ohio River!
The NAM is now siding with the Euro, UKMet, and Canadian models. The lone holdout has been the GFS and we’ll see what it has to say shortly. I’m skeptical this is going to work out the way we thought yesterday. The Euro may have just scored a big win.
Why so down??
We are 3 days out, and this is when we start to see that beautiful north-west trend…! You know it’s coming…
Just came back in from picking 16 year old son up at work in Versailles and drove back out in southern Woodford Co.visibility is TERRIBLE. Needless to say he didn’t drive back home (permit driver) Let it Snow!!!
Classic 🙂
Sticking with 2″ to 5″, from west to east 🙂
its funny how the EURO was the lone ranger just the other day, and now everyone else has decided to follow suit…
Yep…and the 00Z GFS has trended much closer to the 12Z Euro. We still get snow…but it may not be all that much.
Of course it’s coming…it’s a Kentucky tradition LoL!
It’s bias is to hold energy back to the southwest yet it seems its bias wont actually be a bias this time. Crazy.
0z GFS finally saw the light…southern Ky has a shot of seeing just enough to cover the grass. what a let down..
GFS 0z finally saw the light…southern Ky has a shot of seeing just enough to cover the grass. what a let down..
The GFS looks to have joined the crowd. It has the southern stream 500 low along the gulf coast and bring almost no precip into KY.
Se la vie.
New GFS is not looking good at all. it has jumped on the band wagon with all of the other models. I personally think all of the models are to far south. this 3 day mark will really start to give a good explanation.
The storm is over. Flurries for the whole state. Merry Christmas everyone. The 0Z GFS just made this legit. I cant believe this!
I would like to know who paid off the weather gods to give the east coast all of this snow. They’ve gotten storm after storm over the past 12 months. Now, they’re probaly going to get another bomb. I won’t lie, I’m disappointed this has apparently happened. Long live the Euro I guess.
i just cant wake up to tomorrow morning, because.. vinny is right northwest trend.. always happens! this storm has gone off the maps only to come back..duhh! its a mind game. when will yall learn? lol
Time will tell
I agree the gfs might make some movement towards the north but i cannot see a dramatic shift that would put it back on the Tn. border. Just speaking out allowed without no info it is possible that Birmingham AL. could receive more snow than anybody in ky.
lets think back to last night, all but one model were giving us an amazing snow. THen we had a DRAMATIC SHIFT. it can happen at any time.
I really appreciate your updates. The stations in Cincinnati have basically said that it is not a “biggie” for Christmas. But I know from reading your blogs and watching how the storms play out it is too early to tell people that. Thanks again! I am from Maysville.
lets think back to last night all but one model wAS showing a great snow. then today we had a DRAMATIC SHIT, it can happen at any time.
Just shows how many peeps really don’t understand the models and how to interpret them. Wow the low goes south and the warm air goes north. I am really confused…LOL…THINK SNOW and a more northern track.
Hey everyone, the storm right now is not even on the west coast. Like CB said, wait till later tomorrow into Thursday to start speculating, until then, just be patient.
I guess some of us have learned a major lesson. All models have their good points and faults. I remember last Feb. All of the models were having a low move to the south of ky. 5 days out. Then the next day the Gfs had the storm tracking through St.louis to around Detroit. But all the other models continued the storm moving south. The majority of the people thought the gas had flip its marbles.
The next day all of the models were in agreement with the gas.
In conclusion I will never get excited about any storm until all the major models are on the same page.
despite what chris may say later this is over and the models have rendered a verdict. A few inches tops across the south.
expect a slight shift back north no matter what you say, storm hasnt developed yet, no upper air data. this isnt over
I am sorry gas=gfs. Even though the gfs does blow gas from time to time.
it funny everyone is guessing.
i guarentee you that what the models are showing now is not what will happens, still 3 days out, it will only go north or south from here but will promise you it will not stay the same
How much do you think for us? 4-5?
I’ll give maybe a 50 mile shift north for the 1-3 band but the overall storm evolution is set there will very few amounts over 4 anywhere with this.
0z GFS Ensemble….We’re back in business folks, forget what the naysayers are babbling. 🙂
OMG. This is soooooo depressing. If you all remember, CB warned of this the other day. It is a lock now though. NO SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS 🙁
Mitch I can not belive you are giving up this early in the game that just not like you we are still 3 days away……
It cracks me up, when i read weather forecast and predictions by untrained “METS”..Everybody should calm down and wait for CB’s final forecast, After all Chris is the trained and educated Met…Thanks Chris for all of you do, I truely enjoy your blog : )
No way storm is going that far south this time of year folks. Wait ’til tomorrow night, the Debbie Downers will be eating crow for Christmas lunch lol…
Sarah I never give up until Chris tell us it over
If we are lucky. very lucky. AS OF NOW…
this is in my personal opinion. Let CB do all the OFFICIAL talking…
same here : ) CB is the only met i follow : )
The new GFS is out and has Bell and Harlan Co’s in the 5-6 inch range now for Sat-Sun only.
Hi Marsha how have you been? Merry Christmas.
How about letcher co.
Jim c. said this The track has dipped even further south. Let’s see if it holds. It’s a long way from deciding where it will travel! Fun times are coming…
Thanks Chris as always.Now I want Hash browns lol.They do have great Hash browns.
Chris thanks for all you do,keeping us informed.You know you should have also been a Teacher,but don’t want to lose you as our Met.You have taught me so much about weather.Merry Christmas to you and all on the blog.
is chris going to make a post tonight. My eyes are starting to come heavy
Sunny with highs in the 70’s.