Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for dropping by the center. Today is going to be a big day with the potential Christmas weekend winter storm. Why? Because I fully expect the various computer models to start coming into much better agreement… especially with the late day and evening runs. It is at this point we will get a good understanding just how much snow will fall or if the Grinch will steal some of your white stuff.
As usual… we take care of the short term forecast before getting to the main event.
Cloudy skies and colder temps will be with us today. Readings will generally hang around 30 in the north and east and 30s elsewhere. The threat for a few flurries will be with us this morning before a period of light snow settles in this afternoon and evening. This will likely put down some light accumulations of a coating up to an inch across the eastern half of the state. Find your flakes here on regional radar…
Track today’s colder air moving in here…
Current Temps
Ok… how about the weekend Winter Storm THREAT? The GFS and NAM decided to take more of a shift toward the south with the track of the low. The models also show a very sharp cutoff to the northern extent of accumulating snows across the state for Christmas Eve and Day. The Canadian Model continues to look the same from the past several runs. It has a similar low track across the south before bombing it out up the east coast. The big difference in the Canadian and GFS is the model from the north shows much more snow well northward into the Ohio Valley. Take a look…
I love to see a consistent model and the Canadian is certainly spitting out a similar solution. That doesn’t mean it is going to turn out to be right… but as of now I will take what the Canadian is selling. 
Taken verbatim… the model would show several inches of powdery snow for a lot of the region.
The GFS has the funky looking precip output right now. It is still showing a swath of several inches of snow across the southern half of the state with a heavy emphasis on southeastern Kentucky…
The new European is out and continues to show a light snowfall across most of the state with the focus being across southern and southeastern Kentucky. In this case… the grinch stealing a lot of your snow is the state of Tennessee followed by parts of the Carolinas as this storm really blows up across eastern North Carolina. Here ya go…
Wow… that is a massive winter storm JUST to our east and one that, with a bit of a wiggle to the west, could put parts of our region in the mix for something more than a few inches of snow.
Now… take a look back at the models we have posted in this update. You will find each of them having a different impact on this part of the world. That’s why I say the model runs later today and tonight will be big as we should see them come more in line with one another. That should tell us how much snow you will get or if the Grinch will steal the show… uhhh… snow! 
More updates later today so check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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Thanks Chris once again! I hope today we will get a better outlook to see whats to come for this weekend. Be nice if that Low would push a little more west once it starts the track up the mid atlantic.
Once again I will take that 5-6 inches and run with it!!
I am sure that the output will be different at the 06Z run but it would be great if we did get some snow here in TN, which may I point out, is much less climatologically likely for snow at anytime of the year than Kentucky, so, if it turns out to be a TN Valley storm, can you guys “gracefully” let us have this one?
Still not a believer in this southern track watch and see what the models do today and tomorrow the northerly track will come back into play.
I would not trust anything that the GFS put out; it has had a different solution for the last several runs; I dont think that the storm will be shunted that far South either; unfortunately, looks like another day of waiting and watching; although, by this time tomorrow, we should have a good handle on things and hopefully the track will be just a touch further north but not by much cause all you people will get the snow!
Question:
Say that GFS map is correct…….Then I have to ask if the storm is going that far south, then why is all of MO and Iowa getting heavy snow? Would that snow be south as well? That map looks strange to me.
woke up to a nice 39 degrees in London, felt warmer than that, very clean and crisp air; I keep reading about accumulating snow for London but Accuweather and weatherbug both only gives us less than an inch … this is one of those wait and see, luckily me and family are not going anywhere for Christmas!! I hope the ones that are traveling are safe and sound – our prayers go out to you!!
LOL the grinch can have my snow lol.. Well he can take the rest of this winter hehe..
I am not completely sure about how this will exactly play out for the end of the week. Way too much wackiness in the models. Frankly, I am a snow bunny myself, but I think about those who will travel for Christmas and want it to be safe for everyone. However, the kid in me still wants plenty of the white stuff – but, I can settle for flurries if push comes to shove, though. Merry Christmas, Chris, to you and your family. Thank you for being such a dedicated meteorologist who loves what you do and for doing such good work on this blog!!!!
It would be par for the course if the heavy snow missed us to the south. It seems that when we need to get a system to move further south to get the snow, the NW trend takes it north of us, and the few times the NW trend would help us, the trend fizzles…We really do live in one of the WORST places for snow anywhere, particularly because we consistently get missed by a few miles in any given direction, winter after winter now for closing in on 13 straight years… >(
ummmm….sorry no!
The NWS has also backed WAY off on their snow chances for this system. Yesterday, they had the LEX area at 70% chance, now down to 40%, and their new map is not encouraging…I can only hope they are all wrong and we finally break the big snow drought here…
I live in Wilmore too. We could become snow chasers just like the Storm Chasers my daughter loves to watch! (:
I agree wholeheartedly! We have been “letting” everyone have our snow for almost a decade and a half! Enough is enough! 😉
I love Wilmore, but I’m ready for the snow to chase us here! I’ve been chasing the snow up to NC Indiana, where my wife’s mother lives, and I’m ready for it to get me where I live!
rolocoaster down ?
Where you at Rolo the GFS doesn’t look to good atm
where are you snowstorm
why cant i find you……..
i feel like im in whoville and we are all freaked out because the grinch has appeared…we dont want to see green.wewant to see white..lets all believe here in whoville and warm that grinches heart and it will be tbe snowiest and whitest christmas ever here in whoville (well at least here in cky)
ANDY my friend as u know this winter weather is like being on CRACK/DRUGS ur UP , AHHHHHHHHHHHHH/ ur down PUKEEEEEEEEEEEEE so the ROLOCOASTER DOBBLER WEATHER CENTER says this
as of now the 6z nam still storm further south, the GFS has been having issues.
my thoughts are still SNOW for us, I think the EURO will end up hitting with it have a NW turn in next few runs and that be pereect for us meaning SE KY!!
agree with THE LEGEND that Candian has been steady and has to be respected right now.
right now SC,VANC get a foot of snow looking at some of the data and we are on the eedge as CB said. but 4-6 inches right now could turn into a MONSTER with a as THE LEGEND said a WIGGLE.
6z nam has this thing off the coast of lousiana which is not bad if we can get it to move right sirection, fact is this low is in the OLD SCHOOL AREA for SE KY to get one. GFS is on crack and should get its act togther today.
I am sticking with 6 plus inches right now for our area, and hoping the EURO comes a little west because that would be something alot of the young pups around here have never seen.
12z runs going be interesting.
here is alittle of what J.B. had to say this morning on his blog…
The call here is for the axis of heaviest snows to run closer to I-40 than I-70 for the southern plains to the Carolinas before the turn to the northeast. The White Christmas areal forecast of 50% will verify with snow even further south over the east from the Carolinas to the Miss valley before Christmas is over, but the northeast, if its going to get bombed, will wait till Sunday and Monday.
BASILEY said it right the story will be told with todays next couple runs.
still looking at 85 percent of a white chreistmas in REDNECK COUTRY.
Agree…this has the potential to be a classic setup for the mountains of southeastern Kentucky…..
The Storm hasn’t dropped that far south at that point. it takes a pretty sharp southerly turn down into the boarder of the gulf coast. So now the snow wouldn’t be south there.
I agree with CB. Looks like perhaps 2″ to 5″ of snow for the area, with the higher amount more east…. I wonder who has been saying that for a few days now??? 😉
If the Volunteer state solution happens, we will not even get that. Bubba buster in the wrong direction. Most mets to our south seem to be banking on the Tennessee track, BTW.
Best case is 2″ to 5″, west to east. See Rolo? Best not to waffle. I think the Rolocoaster needs some maintenance 😉 🙂
Of course I talk smack now- If Tenessee track, we would not even get the 2 to 5.
Rolo, if the Can model is correct, that is not a lot of snow. Maybe 5″ or so for the east. It is going to take a mega shift west for this to be a biggy. The positive is there should be a white Christmas- unless the Tennessee track pans out. Then only smaller fraction of the state would get something.
I starting to beleive my children, they say Kentucky has a Meth bubble over it.
06z GFS says no snow for anyone except a few flakes in Myrtle Beach. It takes the low completely out to sea and completely misses everyone in the continental US.
Oh dear. I’m not liking this southern track. We are leaving Christmas morning for a drive through Tennessee, into Arkansas and then the caravan is splitting up. Some will be going to Dallas and the rest will be going to Louisiana. I’d love Kentucky to get nailed with a white Christmas so that we can drive relatively safely.
It is a mess outside this morning. My car was showing 36F coming to work. There is a dense fog, I am assuming because the air is warmer than the groung? Either way, the snow is now “mush” and it is a muddy mess. Hope it cools down and hardens this stuff back up. Either way, Merry Christmas everyone!
Nah, if that were true, east KY would be like Palm Springs all year round 😉 🙁
the 6z of GFS IS NOT WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN, it got a bad hit early this morning.
I agree Rolo. At this point, I don’t see how anyone can go with the GFS seeing as to how it is showing no consistency. As bad as I hate to say it, I believe it will play out the way the Euro has been showing.
madison couty north not much at all.
S/se of that LOOK OUT.
the newly named ROLOCOASTER by BUBBA/ANDY is full steam ahead for a SE KY SNOWSTORM.
CB pathology 101:
Whenever our favorite met buddy injects humor into posts before an event, that usually means things may not be so good. The Grinch may be a main theme to results.
Still sticking with my 2″ top 5″, none the less 🙂 Trying to set an example for Rolo. Stay the course, young man!
If I recall correctly, it was not that long ago you guys did steal our snow. Ya’ll go hammered and we go zilch.
Well, like I said yesterday, at this point, it is still a wait and see thing. If we get it, we get it. I am still hoping, but not getting excited until Chris gives ma a reason.
BubbaG, with our record, I would take 2-5! It would still be a white Christmas!
Well if we have all learned anything from this it’s the fact that even though ALL models agree with each other three days out, that obviously doesn’t mean anything.
You’ve got 2 more days and countless model runs to continue to change your mind multiple times.
Point is the current average trend of the models appear to not be favoring KY. If more south, east KY would be a few inches at best.
Mets to our south have bought into a more southerly track. Question is was CB’s last post a segway in agreement and the Grinch really does become the result?
BubbaG, Mr. Bailey ALWAYS uses humor in his posts…
And, 2 to 5 inches of snow, imo, is nothing to be unhappy about…no ice, people could drive in it…
You are still the best DA I’ve ever known. 🙂 Hope you don’t mind my kidding you.
Merry Christmas!
If this weren’t so sad, it would be funny.
Never doubt the Euro on big systems. I guess that is the lesson here.
Still, I’m amazed how far the track moved in just 36 hours.
New NAM very bad for our area as well. Looking at some snow flurries and light snow showers in southern, KY, and really nothing else from about Berea North.
12z NAM is rolling and looks very simliar to the 0z run from late last night. Chances of this thing coming back north are growing slimmer with each passing run. I think the models are on to the general path pretty well… but seems to be some serious issues being caused by the potential phasing of the jets.
The latest NAM does not put heavy moisture anywhere near us, or Tennessee for that matter. Now there are phasing issues at play, this system is all but dead for a white Christmas.
I was just noticing that as well, I guess the grinch has the 12z NAM in his back pocket…:(
it will trend north at some point, always does,will Rolo will get his storm?.will? the state will get there snow. will bubba g ever find his dog? will robbie stop being amazed by model runs? stay tuned to kyweathercenter.com hahahh
but seriously wait for the trend north, then we can all talk.
LOL…stay tuned for another exciting episode of “AS THE BLOG TURNS”!! 🙂
Yes, even though the models have trended significantly further south with this, remember that the storm in question hasn’t entered the west coast. Once it does, though, the models will likely converge on a solution.
Yes, CB does, but the theme is usually telling of his thoughts 😉 In this case, I suggest he may have “some” doubt now on his previous outlook.
Merry Christmas to you & everyone else 🙂
I appreciate that models change, but the average for the main models combined have been fairly “decent” with forecasts, less than three days out. Are we to suddenly refute them when they have been within range with the last three events? Just because these do not show what we want?
CB stated he will have a decent idea, later today. Conjecture for now 🙂
Hi Bubba G
I’m down the road from you…so you’r thinking is 2-5 around us? And that’s what you have been saying for several days
What is amazing is that we’ve had snow on the ground for close to two weeks in CKY, and now its melting away just in time for a brown Christmas (provided the S trend holds). 🙁
I we don’t see the Euro begin to edge north on this run, it might be time to play taps on this storm. I’m not sure what the NAM did with the 12Z run, but it’s not good for Kentucky.
It appears safe to say, the Kentucky snow dome was installed for the season yesterday.
We would be more in the 3″ range, but the current trend when lumping the main models together as an average does not bode well for even that.
Be interesting to see CB’s take. The key seems that the trend currently does not suggest we are going in the righ direction as far as a big snow event. Key seems now is to avoid a no-snow event 😉 🙁
I know that some models can be bunk, but the average of the main models has not been too shabby, three days out for the previous events.
When I say average, I means lumping them all together for one “average” solution.
Does CB see one maverick model that he thinks is more correct? Guess we have to tune in to find out 🙂
drop the models people, they have been doing a horrible job this year until a few hours out. the storm will come back.
I just asked my Emergency management office in Pike county what they thought of the weekend storm here is their reply:
What are your thoughts on the weekend Christmas storm?
Looks like we will be sparded. The storm is moving to the south, We will see some snow starting sometime on Saturday and it will linger to Monday. Should not be anything that will cause problems. Look for temps to get colder.
LOL this is just hilarious. Models have spoken people. It is less than three days out Accept the inevitable. KENTUCKY CHRISTMAS 2010 = BROWN. NOT WHITE. KY WINTERS…..HILARIOUS
I agree lets give the models a day then we can speculate. Funny thing Henry from Accuweather has not updated his blog. Wave3 in Louisville Kevin or Brian have not blog at all today Im guessing its a wait and see game.
Keep in mind, folks, that even the Grinch came around in the end. I am NOT ready to stick a fork in this system and declare it done for us!
i think this low will track somewhere in the middle not tennessee and not florida/gulf giving us what bubba g said 2-5 inches, with eastern getting a little higher totals.
CTLB (CHRIS THE LEGEND BAILEY) NEWS REPORTS: “”SPECIAL REPORT “”
WANTED:…News sources are reporting a modern day Bonnie/clyde duo who are out to steal Kentucky’s White Christmas…be on the look out for 1 AKA, GRINCH…approx. 6ft. tall,green,hairy and stinky!!!…and 1 AKA Heat Miser, approx. 4ft tall 4ft round and full of Hot air…these 2 are working in tandem to corrupt and warm the white Christmas prospects in Ky… they were last seen on I-75 in Madison Co. driving a fire red sleigh looking automobile, with a small dog emblem on the hood with deer horns…so if anyone knows any information about these 2 please call the CTLBnews room hotline at
1-800-snow-xmas…thank you…now back to your regularly scheduled program…
The model trend is disturbing, but the models have been all over the place until a day or so out all winter. If this time tomorrow the models still have the low hanging out down in New Orleans, then it might be time to look toward the next one.
But taking each model run as the gospel isn’t worth it yet. You’ll be driving yourself crazy by being happy one run and angry the next. Once this thing gets on land, we can see what it is actually doing and have a little more confidence going forward.
Wow, GFS is coming in and it’s wanting to go south too. Eww….this is really going to stink up the forecast.
Sing it Willie…Turn out the lights
you aint kidding…feels like a lump of coal has been slung at us …
at least were not dealing with the severe flooding like out west…wow, video is amazin from there…a place called littlefield AZ..homes are being washed away, those poor folks!!
The Models Are Agreeing On An Impossible Solution And That All Systems That Come Our Way Go North Anyway So The Best Bet Would Be Seeing This System Going Across Middle Tennessee.
well the 12z gfs says no way, maybe some light snow fallin from the sky…but it’s teamed up with the Euro. and is saying atlanta Ga. would get 3-6″ of snow for the first white christmas there since 1882…I sure hope this isnt how its gonna play out…HOW DEPRESSING IT WOULD BE…UGH!
Yeh, flooding sux. Ice storms suck. Tornado fatalities suck. Snow, on the other hand, is exciting without being too harsh. Unfortunately, our chances for a deep snowfall on Christmas are diminishing rapidly. I am reducing my forecast from 4″ to about 2″ as of today.
Isn’t it crazy…………I mean, we can’t even forecast accurately three days out………..how could we even begin to attempt a seasonal forecast? It still puzzles me how when watching a weather forecast in the 70s and 80s they would always say “next week looks interesting” and more often than not, we had a huge snow storm when they said that……Fast forward 30 plus years and it doesn’t work that way.
and there’s a deep dive soutward..Could it be,,I think it is..Going Going Going…GONE
Well, even though the low takes the southern track – the one good thing I see from the 12z GFS run is that the northern bit of energy seems stronger than in previous runs – so maybe a little something? Better than nothing!
Well Channel 8 in Knoxville has been consistant with their forecast for us in southern KY since Sunday. This is the newest update.
London, KY
No Rain
Christmas Eve night into Christmas and the Day After Christmas
3.0 to 6.0 inches of SNOW on Christmas and the Day After Christmas
—Chief Meteorologist David Aldrich
Yep, 2″ to 5″ (going west to east with coverage) was my guess, but we are not exactly seeing an average model trend to support even that, at the moment. tend since last night has been a southbound serenade.
People seem to be slamming the same models that were not too shabby with the last three events.
Again, CB is the man with the plan. I was VERY positive my 2″ to 5″ would be correct. Not so much now, so perhaps a bad Bubba buster.
That was without a nose dive south as models seem to be agreeing on…
ummmm….yeah, not so much.
its because we made the way we forecast weather more complicated
Wonder when we will get an update from Chris? Sometimes this site drives me crazy. lol Snow on snow off…..
well ole henry has updated his blog, check it out.. he is showing a southern snow event…only catching southern and eastern ky.
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/43367/why-i-think-a-big-daddy-is-coming.asp
read the tweet folks the canadian brings more moisture all the way up through ohio 😉 gfs is starting to join forces with canadian.. come tonight those models will be headed north somewhat 😉
This is what CB just tweeted out, “Models coming around to a general idea with the weekend storm. GFS now looks like the Canadian Model. Shows some decent snows here.”
Wow! Nice storm for the east coast. 12z has the low at 969MB near long island.
Oh what I would do for this thing to turn into an apps runner haha. Talk about an “old school” storm rolo!
Kentcuky Weather Chat = http://www.ekywx.com/kychat.htm. (bookmark it)
We have a lot of fun discussing everything about the storms in that chat area, even have a few meteorologists from WYMT/WKYT come in every so often
henry is riding the Euro train, he says its been the most consistant which would bring big snows from northern Ga. north and east…and that track would get east ky..with some snow as well…
I got a txt saying GFS was coming around to Canadian….. Shows some decent snows……this is from KYWeatherCenter
I dont like the 12z GFS 🙁
My lawer is trying to find a loop hole to sue “MOTHER NATURE” causing emotional distress!
12z gfs does bring a 1-3 for the region. don’t know there is so much dislike of it. it’s better than nam and ecmwf which bring a trace for many.
Looking ahead, look at this MONSTER storm coming for new years!!! That bad boy covers 1/2 of the cont US. Looks like severe weather possible for us with a chance of a little wrap around snow on the back side. But just look at the size of that thing!
like i said, northern trend my friend, northern trend. may not be 8 inches of snow..but it will be a white christmas
You’re more than welcome to my share, I’ve already had more than enough for a while!
:(….I’m starting to lose my optimistic outlook …trying very hard not to let the model’s servings of waffles make me doubt…uggh..but this is “typical” written all over it…typical for a huge winter storm to “just miss” us..BUT tomorrow should tell the real story right? or Tomorrow night?
OH no…THAT storm was supposed to be massive snow for here also…has that changed also?
andy w at wave 3 posted this info onto the blog.Someone has to be the grinch and I guess it will be me in this quick hit and run post before tipoff . The White Christmas storm does not look good at all, just a few hundredths of an inch liquid on the NAM and all models have trended WAY south now. I hate being right for the wrong reason though.. my concern Sunday was it was too far north not that Atlanta has a better chance of accumulating snow then Louisville. TECHNICALLY we could still see a white Christmas if an inch falls. That may be possible in the wraparound on Saturday not for the “main event” Friday night. Hindsight is always 20/20 but the reasoning seems so simple now. The storm is at such a far south latitude in California and the block in the Atlantic is so strong that this likely can’t come north.
It appears that we will need a miracle on I- 64 street.
I am pretty well convinced that the LEX area isn’t going to see another “Old School” storm ever again, and the dreaded D word (our old nemesis)is beginning to crop into my mind again. It is really ridiculous that snowstorms continue to miss us to the North, to the East, to the West and to the South! I mean, seriously, what does it take to get a real snow around here?!
Hwo does it look now.
Could it be the storm that ushers in the pattern change to warmer that everyone seems to think is coming?
right now look like 1-3 inches around central ky possible with 6-10 in SE KY that higher amount in border counties, but as i saisd watch EURO next couple runs bring THE BIG DADDY it has back nw andSE KY could get a snow we havnt seen in 20 years.
but as of now 100 pwercent chance of white chritnmas with 6-10 inches. could up totals with this evening runs.
it not if SE KY going get snow it just how much!!!
When does the next run come out Rolo?
We might not get any snow in eastren ky.
I hate how the snow is heavy in iowa and illinois and then it just says no Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky I’m just gonna turn past u and give the south and southwest of u heavy snow. Then I will turn back to the north and give penn and the east coast a massive storm, snow dome indeed
hello from wayne, wva. i am not much on trying to be an expert on weather forecasting but i do have access to all the modelruns uring the course of the day. after years of watching the models waffle back and forth especially at this time of year, a person tends to know what models to pay attention to about 3 days before the event is actually to happen. with that being said, i think estn. ky. maybe be in for a plowable snow of 6 inches or better and wva, or parts of may do double the amount. the euro is starting the nw trend back once again as i figured it would. the gfs has major feed back issues with the moisture supply, but even it has moistened up considerably since the 00z runs and the 06z runs. the canadian has been the most reliable all week with a southern track but not as south as the other models. the canadian spits out a nice snow fall but i do not think it is allowing enough gulf moisture to be pulled north, thus the limited snow fall potential. start looking for the nw trend to continue into this evening and by then or early thursday most models will have an agreement about the storm. western ky. will have light accumalations then accumalations will pickup the further east you go. this storm in my opinion for what it is worth will be old school for many in our area, but keep 1 thing in mind, this storm will not get going in this area until friday night/ sat. morning time frame. sorry for the length but trying to get some points across. i hope this is not moderated in any way. thank you.
Bring it on!!
Thier are no Winter Advisory or Winter Strom Watches yet.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html
The ensembles of the last GFS gives some hope for some decent snow, but it is clear we still need it to come north. Click on the link at go to hour 72
Thank you my man! Appreciate the insight