Good Wednesday afternoon to one and all. Today is the day we said we would really begin to pay much more attention to the models as they should start coming into better agreement. That trend started with some of the latest runs and I suspect tonight will see even better agreement.
The GFS and the GFS Ensembles are in lock step with one another in showing a nice swath of snow moving from west to east Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Here is a look at the Ensembles…
The average precipitation from Christmas Eve through Monday morning on the ensembles is more than .25″ for the entire region.
The GFS looks similar…
The swath of snow for Christmas Eve and Day is from a northern stream disturbance diving in from the northwest. The actual low is well to our south across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This low then turns the corner up the east coast as a huge cutoff low spins over top of us…
That big closed low would be a good snow shower and squall producer from Christmas evening into Sunday. Add if all up on the GFS and you get the model spitting out snow totals like this…
The new European has the Christmas eve and Day snow streak but is a bit lighter but does have some decent snow shower and squall action for Christmas Night through Monday morning.
I will say I like what the GFS and the GFS Ensembles are doing as they are close to what I am thinking. 
I will have another update later today so check back.
Take care.
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chris shouldnt a cutofrf low with a storm to east get moiture throen back into it possibly.
dang GFS bust my forcst as most of s/sk get 1-2 inches, i just dont see it.
i see the EURO BOMB STORM FUTHER WEST AND GETS US A gooGOOD SNOW MYSELF but u are the pro. I LUV U MAN and u are the best in biz.
I like what I see here. Enough to have a white Christmas, but not enough to delay travel! I hope anyway. Thanks Chris. I will check back after work!
Rolo when do the next model runs come out?
not impressed at all..
the euro slow down with last 2 runs, next run the west trend as we always see will begin and by D DAY SE KY is GAME ON!!!
the euro is the model hiting this storm no matter if it stays to fur south, but it will not IMO.
over 100 yrear snow storm for sout, HOMIE DONT PLAY THAT, ITS COMING BACK NW.
I’ll take that 5 to 6 inches of snow for my area : )
MICAH EURO com out at 430
EURO SAYS BOOOOOOOOOOOM FOR EAST COAST
No Christmas for obama with 20-24″ of snow
Still no much for KY, I’ll have to live with 6″ :/
>>Click my name for Kentucky Weather Chat!<<
4 Inches for letcher Co it seems.
the EURO will give SE KY SNOW, i actually like mad man HENRY SNOWFALL AREA HE HAS UP.
just got email response from joe b at accu and he says he also see a w/nw trend with the BIG DADDY THE EURO showing!!!!
Is work still called Quebcor. Last time I drove by there was a new name on the building. Hope you have a great Christmas and we get lots of snow here in Woodford county.
Rolo what time will this happen christmas eve night or christmas day.
So you saying 20 inches of snow.
we here at the blog would love for you to join our chat. Just click my name, and join but mark temporary name and say your vannessa! lol its pretty fun to here everyones weather predictions.
Right now. But it’s early. I predict he’ll change that about 20 times between now and Friday.
Light flurries in Lexington.
What do you think for the Southern Indiana/Louisville area? Thank you
The 0z runs will be interesting. I hope the surge from the north remains strong as the gfs is forecasting. How come here in Ky we always have to depend on an overachieving low that will spin overproducing moisture on its backside.
Rolo is funny lol.
Mike how many inches do you think Letcher co will get.
Still sticking with 2″ to 5″ from west to east 🙂
Bubba how about me.
Her eis HM’s first “official” call
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=697874&id=135790633101321
er u at tim, i bet u and andy are setting in the care or holding bags at the mall whuile wifes shop. tell me im wrong.
todays song THAT SUMMER BY GARTH.
if it wasnt for me and bubba entertaining this blog while CB was at his real job, this place go under.lol
u my dog bubba u and ur family have a safe aMERRY XMAS my friend.
You all too!
Still looking good for some snow on christmas, any of you guys care to speculate how much Floyd co will get in on? I know this is a weather blog, but I just have to say congrats to Doron Lamb who set the freshman scoring record at UK with 32 points today against winthrop. GO BIG BLUE!!!!
My expectation is a coverage of 2″ in the west and up to 5″ in the east. Considering this is a “guesstimate”, I am not even going to guess the gradient, but think the far east/se will have the best shot of the most.
Example: About 3″ in Richmond.
Still a chance for a Bubba buster though- just hope it is a high bust instead of a low bust 😉
I don’t like those snowfall maps Chris has posted. They’ve gone from a few inches for the southern border counties the last few days….to little of nothing now. Lake Cumberland area is getting coal in their stocking for Christmas 🙁
OK, this will not be the storm most of us hoped for a couple days ago, Frankfort area 1 to 3 inches would qualify for a White Christmas anyway, without major disruptions for the holiday. Still puts Frankfort around 15in plus for December totals. Annual ave for entire winter already met. 🙂
Me neither, Tim…here I live, in Nelson Co., and we can’t even get a mention of ICE (per our usual when everyone else gets the snow).
As my 4 yr old daughter would say, “Welp, Pooty!” lol! (she didn’t learn that from me…nosiree..nuh-uh..)
I can remember wen my kids were small when we were supposed to get flurries on Christmas day, and wound up getting about 4 inches of snow. SO, if the ground gets covered, then its a white Christmas! I will take whatever we can get! Looking forward to Chris’ first call map…
That map CB posted looks like my call for the past few days…. Why is there a big pink area over most of Madison county? The “D” word? 😉
For me, it’s bad because I want it to snow axle-high to a ferris wheel. For travelers, it’s good because KY will have a “white Christmas” technically, without the disruption to roadways. I guess somebody wins no matter what.
i say this the EURO is a 100 year storm ruight for the se, man if wre miss out its sad, but the NWTREND has to happen.
it be sad to see atlanta get 1-2 feet and us 4 inches.lol
this will be only chance of winter of a OLD SCHOOL STORMas the pattern will change.
430 and 1am model will seal the deal good or bad.
Never mind, looks different on a big screen and not a phone. Madison county does not have the pink area (Yes I know that is not how the system would really pan out).
WRF has a little nudge to the North, not much but a tad. Compare this to the Last run of the WRF which had only snow in Southern Kentucky, this run places Kentucky in a better chance for a small snow. But could this be the start of a trend to the North. Nam looks better for Kentucky as well, but still no major snows, currently 1-3 for most areas.
Don’t say the d word
I’m thinking CB is going to put out a “First Call” map with 1-3″ for my neck of the woods in NKY while ILN drops snow out of their forecast. Then by about 3PM on Friday ILN sees the light and issues a Winter Weather Advisory.
tom it playuing out just like i thought shift back to nwlittle by little now the main MODEL the EURO should do the same shortly and if it dopes its on as i predicted.
CB will update after next EURO run
I think rolo is on a rolo, looks like its trending the way you have been calling it.
What does that mean.
me an rolo are in agreance this storm will trend north, 2-5 inches for bulk of the state. That’s what im calling.
keep the faith guys…
new update from nws lmk has increased snow chances again to 60% friday night. Also, their illustration has the low center passing over northern mississippi and alabama, so the north trend has begun!
Anybody with the Euro access, what does the new afternoon run look like? Any shift?
Six inches of snow has been sticking out in my mind for some reason lately…..we might not get it, but it would be a nice number to get for Christmas…if not—hey, who knows..maybe somehow we can get in on Christmas night after some people get back home and can enjoy it. 🙂
When does Euro come out again? I think you said 4:30 but is that central time because Im on eastern time and its already 4:40 here : ) LOL just so excited!!
more good news….new update from HPC has all of kentucky in slight risk of 4″+ risk…that is encouraging at least.
hi from wayne, wva. to rolo and others. 18z gfs has further north storm for christmas day and wetter srorm especially for se kentucky. euro not yet out. thanks
I’m really waiting for the 0z model run to make any call on this storm.
euro going show a west/nw shift as well
I keep hearing about how all the precip with this system is going south. Even with the south track, moisture levels will be about the same for TENN area.
A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND INCLUDING MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
COLDER AIR SINKS SOUTHWARD. A MIX OF SNOW…SLEET AND RAIN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT…WITH SNOW CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME…AN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH UP TO TWO
INCHES OVER MOST PARTS OF THE MID STATE AND UP TO THREE INCHES
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY LATE SUNDAY. SINCE THIS EVENT IS
STILL TWO TO THREE DAYS AWAY…UNCERTAINITY REMAINS IN THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
Hey rolo are you saying here in eastern ky are going to get a good snow?
marsha south of a line from pikeville backs to rocastle and aouth of that line are in for 6 inches or more, if the EURO does the NW TREND sa i expect then alot more could be in range. other models have tilted already a few miles back north.
Chris, you are the best. My Florida grandson is spending Christmas with us in Somerset. All he asked for this year from Bamma and Paw Paw was a white Christmas. He is going to get it and thinks I am magic,all because of you!!! Thanks for making us look SOOOO good. Merry Christmas to you and yours
Chris gonna show the progress of the weekend storm at 5:30
http://www.wsaz.com/
then click live broadcast…
hows this looking for richmond how much snow?
T.G. Shuck just said main area of low pressure will be along gulf coast, but we still have a shot at some light snow, what do you guys think? Rolo Bubba g or anyone else care to comment on this?
TG going on models runs from earlier today, mainly the gfs
the next wuro comes out at 1AM sorry i got the 430 mixed up from GFS instead opf ruro,
u have to remember TWC, and local mets are at least a model run behid when they do there forcast.
I dont lives in pike co.
sorry got mixed up micah next euro is at 1am, i had the GFS in my head when i posted 430.
Thanks Rolo I am kinda new at this, as far as reading models and such so any info is greatly appreciated
Wow. That was random.
Rolo I am in morgan what about that area?
Isnt it about time for an update…. Is CB waiting on a certain model run or something.
WAVE guys hinting at NW shift. NWS in Nashville and Birmingham are tamping down the white christmas prospects. Hope they are right. My daughters are driving up to Lex from NOLA on Sunday. They have no clue about driving in the snow, and if they have to see it, I would rather them see it here and TN than Alabama.
Rolo is a HOOT! You should have been around when he had his goat helping predict the forecast. It was laugh out loud funny! I miss that goat….Rolo…when are you going to get another one and train it up?
I have an aunt in Bowling Green and she is supposed to come up to Indiana on Christmas Day. How much snow could fall in Bowling Green?