Good Wednesday evening everyone. Your friendly weather dude is dropping by for a quick update on the weekend Winter Storm THREAT. Contrary to popular belief… it is still a THREAT since the blog doesn’t waffle with each computer run. 
How much of a THREAT remains to be seen and we will decide that over the next day or so.
It is funny to watch the models begin to come back toward what they had been showing a few days ago… a swath of accumulating snows moving eastward across the state Christmas Even into Christmas Day. I suspect we will see future runs trend wetter with time. The latest GFS Ensembles run continues to point toward a more moisture laden system…
This is happening as the models figure out the northern stream energy isn’t going away. One of the reasons the models may be coming back around is because the energy is now getting into an area we can actually get a good sample from.
The GFS and NAM both trended in this direction as well. The GFS snowfall map…
Again… that is for entertainment purposes. 
The HPC has put much of the area in a risk for 4″ or more of snow Christmas Eve into Christmas Day…
I will have a first call for Christmas snowfall map coming later tonight so be sure to check back… if you can stay up that late.
Take care.
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Hmmm
In the HPC I trust. Currently 22 degrees. Speaking from an open mike here on Greenbriar Road. My buddy Wayne Bell says…Good Night, and be good sports, fans. STRAIGHT OUTTA 1974!!!
So this only shows 2in for London area, is that right? I was thinking 3-5 any thoughts?
I knew rolo was right. Only two people I trust in the weather world and that is rolo and cb. Keep the forecast coming rolo. You da man. What’s your latest call?
Everything falling into place….Models heading back toward the Bluegrass Blizzard! 🙂
is this right how much for letcher.
Still looking decent for my area(Floyd co.)but as CB said snowfall map is for entertainment purposes only. It can change,because as we all know when it comes to KY nothing is set in stone, maybe by tomorrow we will get a first call map? Anyone care to give an opinion what you think Floyd co. is expecting as far as accumalating snow goes?
WTF??? Is Ritchie gonna play tahnite?
Still up to 4 inches here.
To be honest John, there is still to much uncertainty to place any totals. I would say think 1-3 inches at this time, but also keep in mind those totals could go up, or down.
I say when this thing pans out we are all looking at 6+ inches. Too many things are starting to point in that direction. The models are trending more north now with each run and we know there should be decent moisture with this bad boy…could be a very White Christmas in KY!!!
That’s what I said to Karen Sypher!!
How many inches will be here on christmas eve.
Thanks Tom, I was thinking the same thing that we could go up or down. If the track goes more northward that means we might get in on some even better accums, or at least have a better chance at it am I right?I am trying to get the hang of reading these models with your guys help I might even get as good as you guys 🙂
Confused here. The map in the previous post had more snow over KY. The map in this post clearly shows a shift to the east. How is this an improvement?
it will need 12 inches to make a foot by the time its all said and done
Yeah, it does not add up. The last model map clearly showed more snow and this one shows most shifted east and out of KY. If CB is using that map as reference, that suggests less snow and not more.
Veddy veddy confused….
John, you are right. If the track comes north you have a better shot at getting a lot more than 1″-3″
Because Chris is in the East. LOL
HAHAHA andy, some people never learn 🙂
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH PART OF CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT…AREA ROADS WILL
LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY.
IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY…STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MAKE ALTERNATE
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD THIS STORM AFFECT THE REGION AND TRAVEL BECOMES
NEGATIVELY IMPACTED.
True. CB’s words aren’t matching up with the maps. Hmmm?
Thanks Tyler
I was actually encouraged by the 18z GFS as it had quite a westward shift and overall brought the storm in this area about 6-12 hours quicker than the previous run. If we can continue to see a Westerly trend in the 00z run, we may not be out of this thing just yet.
So it is saying you shouldnt drive.
Bill Meck is saying we will get a dusting…………..LOL
Go get bread and milk, cookies. This will be a long weekend.
Bring on the SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!! and lots of it……….
Chris B,
At least some of us are confused. You say the trends are better, but your new map suggests the opposite and shows a significant shift to the east, compared to the map you used for your previous post.
Seems very contradicting. Could you please post or tweet to explain?
Thanks!
It is hard for me to read one map or the other as being “more snow” generally. It seems like ti depends on who/where you are talking about. The norther part of the state, for example, would get more snow in the more recent map, right?
No, Vanessa. It is saying to be aware of the weather, because, although the NWS doesn’t think accumulations will be significant, they don’t really know.
new nam through 36 hrs looks better at the 500 mb level through 36 hrs. this follows a wetter trend in the 21z sref. we’ll see what the nam brings shortly.
yup, this nam run is quite a bit more phased at the 500 mb level. many of you will have big cheers here in a few.
but cant it change.
CB’s latest tweet says with the new NAM looking like several inches. Three CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!
Nam given us a reason to hope. Best part is, these runs have live data to work with.
Confused will be the word of the day. Chris tweeted a few minutes ago about several inches. Hope he might update one more time before his late post. My bedtime is gonna be early tonight.
He’ll probably be sixth man tonight.
WRF has also pulled the low further North. That is the second straight time. It started out deep in the Gulf and is now cutting through south Georgia on the latest run. Things are looking better.
SOMETIMES I’m a little skeptical of what he says. He’s like a Debbie Downer
New NAM bringing it all back our way! Good Times! 🙂
Thanks, CB for putting up with us bloggers and our bi-polar antics – it’s how we’ve learned to cope with 13 years of near misses!
Chris’s tweet says several inches. Don’t doubt someone gets several but who. I’m hoping central Ky.
I’m now in Paducah for the holidays. When you post a snowfall map, Chris, please include the whole state so I know what to expect here. I don’t know whether to trust these guys around here or not.
One thing to keep in mind is snow ratios could potentially be much higher than the 10:1, possible 15:1 or 20:1 is not out of the equation. Meaning .25 qpf could bring 3-5 inches.
The map above does show several inches…. for far east KY 😉
Sticking with my 2″ to 5″ (fail or not). Means Richmond should get about 3″.
White Christmas, free of heavy shoveling on my steep driveway! 🙂 😉
Well I definitely feel better tonight at this time than I did last night.
My philosophy is not to get to high or to low I recommend to anybody who wants to listen wait until all the models are all in agreement.
Because two days ago I thought this storm was a no brainer.
NEW NAM 00z looks very enticing
Understand BG but I’m in far EKY and still have at least 3 inches in the yard even after it has settled, thawed, refroze and thawed some more. I’m ready for another system and several more inches.
So are the chances increasing to get alot of snow vs. the 1-3″ that all the local stations in Louisville are calling for? Have only recently started following and don’t really understand all the models yet.
Well, it looks like things are beginning to come back our way…Chris has said he will post a first call map on the evening update later….I have a feeling that we will be pretty pleaed with it, especially if the NW trend continues…..but, if the ground is covered and we have flakes in the air on Christmas day, it will still be beautiful!
Chris, thanks, and as usual, waiting for the next update! Got a cake in the oven….later, ya’ll!
Nam bufkit has over 5 inches in lexington. again this is showing much more in the way of phasing i would need to see the new ecmwf run overnight before getting to excited.
So, tyler, what is it showing? I keep clicking on the wrong dang one!
Can you please post a link to the NAM snowfall map? thanks
Chris has a new post out!