Good afternoon gang. I wanted to drop by for a quickie update on the streak of snow heading our way tonight and for our Winter Storm Threat for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Light snow is working in from the northwest and will enter parts of northern and central Kentucky late this afternoon into the evening. This will produce some light accumulations during this time. That batch of snow will slowly work northeastward as the individual returns work southeast. This will eventually mix with a touch of freezing rain later tonight and Tuesday morning. Track this action on radar…
Looking ahead toward our storm for Christmas. The trend for a colder and farther south tracking storm continues and this would mean an all snow event for the state. Here is how the new GFS Ensembles look…
The GFS itself is trending to the south, but looks to have some precip issues in terms of output. That said… here are the snowfall numbers from the GFS through Christmas Night…
An inch or two of “a lot more”? That is the big question we will tackle in the coming days as a White Christmas is almost a given.
One thing to watch for is the track of the low trying to go too far to our south. There is some potential this could be an issue giving us a light snowfall while Tennessee gets the heavy snow. That’s not the case right now, however. To me… that is really the only thing that can prevent us from getting a significant snowfall at this point. 
I will update a gain later today so check back. Take care.
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Those who run the GFS say the southern bias has been removed from the model. Maybe, but maybe not. DT at wxrisk.com is always bashing the GFS for reasons like this. Regardless, that’s a big shift south and it matches up with the Euro. Is the cold air going to be that much stronger thus pushing the track south? Time will tell, but this seems a bit far south considering how things are to warm slightly this week.
Given the Northern trends of this season I do not think it will go to far south, but this system may decide to do just that. But as of right now cold air does not seem to be a problem for the state of KY, which is really, really good.
Don’t tease us like that, CB! I am SOOO ready for a big snowstorm, it isn’t even funny!
WEll a south trend would help us here in southern/southeastern ky. But it always seems to miss us to the north,west,east or south..so Knoxville will probably get 2feet and we’ll get a dusting…lol
How about Letcher co.
So true it’s not even funny… :/
Of course Mike, I have come to expect nothing else.
The low is in perfect position at this time. If I was a betting man I would bet that the models will start trending north in the coming days.
Thanks for the update, Chris. Looking pretty good at this point. I do hope the low doesn’t track too far south! I had thought of that earlier. It has happened before…guess we wil just have to keep watching and see. Looking forward to the next update!
Odds are 3-1 this thing will trend north & the lines just opened!
The CMC is pushing this thing way south down below Atlanta. Placing only light snow, and snow showers for southern Kentucky, and nothing at all North of the Blue Grass. That would be a disaster
YEah, I just saw on the weather channel they are forecasting rain for central and southern ky with ice/mix north on friday…and snowshowers on Christmas day and sunday…
12z Euro way south into southern Louisiana. CMC further to the north, Euro gives SDF about .25 which is big decrease from 0z run
Well, the Christmas snow sure appears to be on the way. How much is definately the question it seems. My brother is supposed to travel from Owensboro to Corbin on the 23rd and return on Christmas day. I sure would love to see him, but wouldn’t want him to travel in poor conditions. Guess this one is a true wait and see!!
What does it mean further to the north.
What is the outlook for next week and into January? Will this ‘snowy’ weather prevail or will it go into a warmer trend?
Wjat does the weather look like for next week and into January? Will this ‘snowy’ weather continue or will we see a warming trend begin?
I wonder if any of that snow is touching the ground here in Ky?
yea the nw trend is always a reality…hell lets not be in the bullseye this far out.
I think it means less snow the farther north the track is.
I was wondering the same thing, is anyone reporting any flakes hitting the ground??? radar is really streaking it east south east..temps. here in knox co. are close to 40 though..sitting at 38* right now..
I wonder if we’ll get any winter weather advisories out this mess tonight?
Don’t forget about western ky……we have not gotten anything close to central and east ky so far. Where I live we have received 1.5 inches ……..bahumbug!!!!! Bring on some snow ole man winter for the entire state!!
I’m not seeing in woodford county.
It depends on where you live. Lou & lex would receive more accu. with a track 100 miles north but sou. ky might receive less due to being near the warmer center of the low.
Yeah but the CMC is only about Atlanta, which is not that much help for heavier precipitation. I guess it is still far out and things can change, so nothing to do here but wait and see.
We have frozen precipitation falling in Frankfort right now.
But, you have to be under a tree to catch the ice that is melting. Wish the radar actually had snow under that pretty shade of blue.
thanks for the info I am new to all of this. I am trying to learn all that I can, as far as reading models and anything else I can find weather related
Nothing here in Jessamine County yet Tim….on the radar, but not falling yet! 🙂
Nothing hitting the ground yet in downtown Lexington.
John what about Eastren Kentucky.
Okay, I hardly ever comment but I am obsessed with the blog. However, I think I will not be back until about Thursday night. Then we’ll know for sure. I can’t take too much excitement at once so I am going to, instead, focus on the upcoming celebration of Christ’s birth and all the blessings of the Christmas season. I might have to go to Bailey rehab, but I’m gonna try it!!
Nothing falling yet in NE Jefferson county. Radar has been showing it for quite some time now – but again, not seeing anything yet.
here’s some comments being discussed in the NWS in JKL..evening discussion:
POTENTIALLY MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL FOR THE SYSTEM…PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY AGREEABLE. HOWEVER…THERE HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRENDS. 12Z RUNS FOR THE
GFS…EC…AND GEM HAVE ALL TAKEN A JAUNT SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM. THE
MOST RECENT RUN OF THE EURO HAS TAKEN A SIGNIFICANT TURN SOUTH WITH
THE QPF BULLSEYE GOING SOUTH WITH IT MAKING THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW
NOT VERY LIKELY GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND WHAT THE RUNS HAVE SHOWN
PREVIOUSLY…WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG WORDING BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON A ACTUAL NUMBER OF SNOWFALL.
CONCERNING THE SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY…THE LASTED RUN OF THE
EURO PAINTS A NOT SO GLOOM PICTURE WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF SOUTH OF
THE KY/TN BORDER. THE UPPER LEVELS DONT REALLY SEE A PHASE NOW UNTIL
SUNDAY 00Z AFTER THE MAIN LOW HAS CROSSED THE APPALACHIANS SO AT
THIS POINT…MODELS ON THE LESS SEVERE SIDE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS TO SEE IF A TREND BACK NORTH IS IN STORE.
………..
so its anybody’s guess at this point…as usual…typical though . a week out we get models phasing northern and southern branch systems…but when we get closer to event…seems like SOMETHING always goes wrong that they dont phase…so CHEERS!!! here’s hoping we get a phasing snowstorm for Christmas..
So what co are on the Ky/TN Border.
The Weather Channel is a joke! Enough said. lol.. All they worry about anymore is their little storm stories everytime you turn over there. haha.
Remember Channel 8 in Knoxville has been giving us around 3 inches by Christmas Evening for days now. 😉
I hope we do get the heaviest snowfall here on the KY/TN border. This would be a 2nd BIG SNOWSTORM of the year. We already had the 8-14 inch storm.
http://www.sitesatlas.com/Flash/USCan/static/KYFC.gif
yeah, i know…I really liked Scott Blalock that used to be their chief Met. I hated to see him retire…he was a snow lover as well..
I dont know how old you are, but I remember yrs. ago Margie Ison, and John Gerrard they were class act weather folks from knoxville stations wbir10,wate6.
BRANDON!!! dont JINX US!!!…:)
Man I hope I dont!!! HAHA… Maybe me and you can have another big one. lol. Only problem for me is I have to travel to London on Christmas Day to my mothernlaws.
Remember GFS=Goebbels Forcasting Service(The Big Lie)
I’m in Edwardsport, IN (far SW part of the state)
Nothing reaching the ground here, we’ve been “under the blue” on radar for going on 4 hours now now and air still too dry.
Its 37 here and just cloudy.
Gotta love seeing this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook from your NWS 🙂
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
.DAY ONE…TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TURN TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN…SNOW AND SLEET AFTER 2 AM. THERE WILL BE VERY
LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF ICE…HOWEVER IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND BRIDGES.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF ICE…
HOWEVER IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADS AND BRIDGES.
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS…ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ok folks here the deal, will the blocking take it to far south or will S/SE KY finally get one of those BIG DADDYS while 75 miles north gets nothing, that how sharo the cut of going to be.
now as THE LEGEND mention the models could push this thing to far south, but if our luck has changed it will have the n/nw trend as we get closer like many storms last year did.
just look how my thoughts and models have changed in 2 days.
yea rolo been down with 20-30 percent shot, right now if the time frame was here I say a line from rocastle s and east would be in for a good white xmas.. but to many runs left, we need to see the models stop the soutward trend and hold steady till wed then wed nite see a tad N/NW turn.
my percentages on a 8 plus inch snow right now is 25 percent.
way to early to get confident,
Rolo how about Letcher Co.
Winter storm threat seems bold, but you never know. I expect a similar result to the last one as far as who gets the most snow- regardless of amount.
not buying the huge jump south in track, expect northward correction.
Parts of Bell Co has done had 13-15 inches of snow already this month in 1 system. This would be a second one this month. 😉
VANNESSA u would be in a sweet spot dear if things work. cause ur on the border mountain counties.
Jim C said a fews inches maybe.
bubba i do think IF it worked out futher south sweet spot this time. but as u and i have said we are still not very confident bout it yet.
Jim C plays it conservative for a while until it gets closer. 😉
Seriously……rather don’t rub it in! what I wouldn’t give to have had that much snow here so far!
Major flip flop or what, folks crying about rain yesterday, and now they think the snow is going to TENN? Yea right. Get ready for the northern TREND by tomorrow!
Is Northen bad or something.
No snow hitting the ground here.
Nothing happening in the Morehead area, although it has gotten very cloudy over the past hour (previously partly to mostly sunny)…I hope the models trend back North/NE again…although either way I’m gonna have a white Christmas..the snow we have is NOT going anywhere…still have several inches on the ground! But here’s hoping all who wants it, gets slammed with the “big one” (snow speaking of course). 🙂
Sounds like a white Christmas is a good bet for Central, KY. One model run is not a shift in my opinion so I would not read too much into that. Will be interesting to see what happens with the next runs. As we are still several days out I would still expect the models to flip around a bit as they did with the storm last week. I for one will be surprised if they know much until Wed afternoon. Just my take!
It will be interesting to see what the nam spits out on the 0z run. Will it navigate towards the gfs or the euro solution.
New post from CB
Its good things, keep share