Good Monday everyone. Here is hoping things are going great in your world as we get closer and closer to the big day. Christmas is almost here and the question I hear a hundred times a day is… Are we going to have a white Christmas? My answer to that question is this… Winter Storm THREAT. I have seen enough to upgrade to threat level as a significant winter storm may be impacting our entire region.
We will get deeper into the Christmas storm in just a bit. Before all that… we have the threat for some wintry weather tonight and Tuesday. A weak clipper will be skirting the region during this time and will lead to period of light precipitation breaking out tonight into Tuesday. A period of light snow and a touch of freezing rain will be possible for some areas and this may lead to slick travel into early Tuesday.
Here is the main area of concern as of now…
This should be very light precipitation… but it won’t take much to create some slick spots early Tuesday. By afternoon… temps will have warmed to just above freezing in these areas meaning some drizzle or very light rain will be possible.
Before that… there could be a few flakes flying around today and you can track those here…
Highs today will be near 30 in the north and east and near 40 in far western Kentucky. Temps Tuesday will be problematic because of the clouds and mixed precip. Highs will be in the low and mid 30s north and east with 40 far south and west.
Colder air moves in for Wednesday with a shot at some light snow showers and flurries.
That brings us to our Winter Storm THREAT for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. The latest model trends are for a slower and farther southward tracking low across the Tennessee Valley and south from Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Many of the models then turn this storm up the east coast developing it into a major winter storm along the way. Let’s get a review of some of the latest model runs. The European Model is now the biggest and baddest of the bunch…
That is a pretty classic look for getting some big snows into our part of the world. Looking in depth at the model shows all snow for everyone and several inches of it. The model is actually spitting out nearly .75″ of liquid for some. It is also cold and windy.
The latest Canadian model seems to have something similar in mind…
The GFS Ensemble average has been trending colder and farther south as well…
Keep in mind the Ensembles are smoothed out as it is the average of many different individual model runs. That is a pretty healthy storm signal for the Ensembles.
The GFS itself is back and forth from north to south with the low track and it will continue to do a little dance from run to run for a few more days. The latest run was farther north than any of the above models were showing. That said… the GFS was still spitting out some good snows through Christmas Evening…
Don’t take that to heart by any means as I am ONLY showing it for the heck of it. 
It is way to early to talk totals!
Some random thoughts on this possible storm…
– I am confident we will see snow for Christmas. Will it be an inch or a lot more? That is the main question I have right now… but the ” a lot more” option is on the table.
– No matter how much snow falls… temps for Christmas Weekend will be very cold!!
– Given the fact this storm would hit during the Christmas holiday… the forecast will take on added importance. Your friendly weather dude will be working a lot of OT this week trying to keep you guys up to date on how this may play out.
– My email inbox is on overload right now, so getting back to you may take a while. Blame Old Man Winter… not me! 
I will have more updates coming later today so be sure to check back. Have a great Monday and take care.
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All I can say is BRING IT ON!!! I hope for a more southern track for us here in Middlesboro. These type of systems we see alot of WET snow around here.
Thanks Chris for the update and for all the updates and all you do for us. Sounds like we will have a wonderful Christmas. Merry Christmas to you and yours.
dude bring it we wanna white@ss Christmas!!!
SNOW, SNOW go away and come back another day! I’m sure this is not to popular with you all but I do snow removal and DO NOT want to work all day Christmas day. I think Louisville is going to see our fair share of snow the 24th & 25th.
Be nice to get another BIG ONE like we got a week ago of 8-14 inches here in Bell Co.
I personally hope this thing takes a more southern track as I’m driving home Christmas Eve, and would prefer to drive through all snow instead of a wintry mix mess. We’ll see how things play out over the next few days but I’m personally favoring a track between the GFS ensemble average and the Canadian model.
Thanks Chris! Glad your gonna be on top of things this week. Looking forward to each of your updates and for a white Christmas.
first I AGREE MODELS LOOK ok rght now, but dont get dragged in as we are still 5 days out and the system has not even been sampled yet.
the EURO would be a SLAM DUNK as of now for the storm. EURO was steady with last storm track for over a weeek.
so the rolo meter og a WHITE XMAS has risen to 30 percent today, give me the euro run wed the same as the latest and it be 80!!!
but once again with the track record and that a big part of my thinking about winter weather IM NOT EXCITED at all. yet. the EURO has a CLASSIC track right now for MY AREA to get hammered with snow. track of LP is around north GA TENN line give or take a few miles moving NE.
I say rai/mix to snow with a coating to higher amounts as u get into the HIGHER ELEVATIONS if i went with a fircast right now.
but it does LOOK GOOD as far as model runs go, this morning runs will bew interesting to see if we have steadiness or jumoping all over the board.
RS, can I please get your professional opinion on snow blowers? We have a very long gravel driveway that gets drifts up to two feet deep when it’s windy. Last February we were snowed in twice even though our fields looked bare. The snow blows in such a way that it lands on our driveway and we have no other way to get out. We need something that can clear a path wide enough for a car and about 100 yards long. Thanks!
I was thinking last night about the very blurry Santa radar shots that the Houston weathermen showed during my childhood. Times sure have changed. Are kids tracking Santa on their iPhones now?
I just saw on the weather Channel they showed the Euro snowfall simulation for Christmas eve and Christmas day, which had central and eastern ky in 3-6″, and snow of at least 1″ all the way to northern Ga.!!! wow…might have to break out a golden Oldie from “ALABAMA”…CHRISTMAS IN DIXIE,SNOWIN IN THE PINES!!!!!
Frist I want to thank Chris and all you guys so much for this site/blog..it’s awesome, read it numerous times a day..don’t post a lot, but it keeps me informed and I keep everyone I KNOW informed…
I know not to get hung up on the models or the snowfall map..but WOW..it has Morehead in the 6-8 inch range…all I can say is YEAH!! and OMG, more shoveling haha..:)
The European was top dog with the last storm we had. Will it be correct this time? Let’s sure hope so!
Just let them dig themselves out except for MOM….LOL
I second that! I do the same. But, I say LET IT SNOW A BUTT LOAD. I am going to have to work late Sat. night into Sunday. Family comes first especially on X-Mas. THINK SNOW…THINK SNOW…THINK SNOW
DO NOT DO IT, Rolo! Stay the course! You have already jumped on the Rolocoaster.
Think dragstrip! 😉
Ditto.
Rolo has already bought a ticket on the Rolocoaster. He started down and now is heading up. He had better have his harness on 😉
Well, since the EURO was dead on on the last storm, I would think it would be this time too!!!!!:)
Wow! That sure looks interesting! I hope it takes the more southerly track, but not too far south so that it misses us….a white Christmas would be very nice.
Looks like the northern part of the state gets the “fun-n-games” with the light freezing drizzle overnight and tomorrow…. (PUN INTENDED….DO NOT WICH THAT ON ANYONE)
Have a great Monday, everyone! Chris, thanks so much, and really looking forward to the next update!
I disagree. The Euro sucked eggs. It had the low going through the Great Lakes, and didn’t catch onto the GFS solution until two days out. GFS is king right now. Again.
Chirs, THANK YOU for taking time from your holiday week to keep us updated. I’ll be watching closely as we make travel plans. You may save a few lives!
Well, last snowstorm.
well I think I’ll put an ole timers folklore saying to the test…”when it clouds up over a frosty morning, snow/ice is the warning…and since we have MOSTLY bare ground down here along the Tn/ky. border..It was obvious this morning a huge frosty/freeze morning took place..so if the saying is so, then we will have snow/ice on the ground soon again,and I would say that bodes quit well with all the wintery weather that is forecasted over the next several days.
The GFS had this on the maps on the 8th and 9th and it hasn’t changed. I am sure it will once this thing gets brewing over land. We will be now casting in four to five days. Lets all hope for a favorable track and we are all talking SNOW….
I agree Kgirl. I postponed a visit to TN during Christmas. Better to be safe than sorry.
This next storm really has me excited! I have 2 aunts in Kentucky that come up to my grandmas (French Lick) where we have our Christmas and some family from Indianapolis. I want snow but I hope the snow is over bt Christmas morning!
well its obvious your a GFS worshipper, so what happened to the “infamous GFS” when it was forecasting a COLD SUMMER, and COLD November..hmmmm. I think in YOUR PART OF THE WORLD had one of the hottest summers on record, not to mention November was pretty warm as well…so you better take the WHOLE picture in to concideration before praising a model that has more FLAWS than Corrections…JUST SAYING!!
according to the timing of the storm as of right now eastern ky’s. snow will be just getting started EARLY on Christmas morning..or thats when the rain is suppose to turn to snow as of now..
The nws reported that the gfs has not change between runs. It will be interesting to see if the model moves towards the euro or the euro moves towards the gfs. We should start to extract some data from the nam during the 0z run tonight.
Bubba G. Are you up near the 627 exit (Boonesboro/WInchester)? I’m a mile or so away from the Pilot truckstop. A lot of your readings match up with mine, so guessing we’re close by.
Boy, look at that flume, on radar, streaking toward us from the north west. I guess that might be the precip anticipated tonight?
12Z GFS is slightly farther south with the low, and slightly colder! *WoW* This could be what we’ve all hoped for…a Christmas snow STORM. Keep your fingers crossed…
First of all, what on earth are you talking about?? Do you even know? And since when does an operational model forecast seasons? LMAO. Go back to watching Tom and Jerry. What’s obvious is that everybody else is a EURO worshipper, and for no reason.
Yep. I am a few miles south of exit 95.
Yes, but the net average is still trending colder…. Hey, you are not one of them there “global warmers” are you. Now THAT is an example of bogus data 😉
Makes the short range GFS (that does not forecast seasonal outlooks) seem ethced in stone, by comparison.
Is the this really Al?
This note is intended for California flava’ version of WX.
I am cereal! 🙂
This post is so full of flaws, I must conclude you were joking. If so- funny!
I am serial / cereal!
This California post is so left field…. I hope it was a joke…..
Were you serial? Is anybody?
well.my bengals had to win..we could be sitting in last place…..i really want cam newton….byebye carson..bye bye marvin and i wish someone could buy the team away from mike brown…
weather ????let it snow baby but i pray everyone gets to their families and then gets snowed in..merry christmas to all..and remember god came down for us
it did not. the ecmwf has a good handle 6 days out from the 10th. here are the old runs to examine clearly showing the ecmwf never cut the last system into the lakes on the 16th.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010121012!!/
Nice to see good ole flip-flop Rolo is back in full effect.
Also the 12z nam appears in its early stages to be favoring the euro model.
12Z NAM at 84 hours looked identical to the GFS at 84 hours from this morning. GFS has since gone ever so slightly farther south which is good for now…
Sorry Mitch but it sure did. Everybody here, including Bailey himself noted that the GFS was the farthest south with that storm…and the Euro was going north which would have resulted in an insignifant system for us. GFS nailed it, Euro didn’t. The other models played catch-up with the GFS. That’s what happened.
Last GFS moved the system to the south. Now Most of Kentucky is in the snow on the GFS and the fence is Tennessee. So we shall see, but I fully expect the models to waffle again over the next few days. What a start to the season.
Yes, I agree! Next couple of days will be worth watching to see if we need to start the Hype machine….I’m going to wait until later Wednesday..Early Thursday before I get to excited. Hope it stays on this track would be nice to get a 2-4inches or more in Lou.
Easy there BRO just checkin to see if you knew what you were talkin about..:). ITS A JOKE. its all good man, come on out to the west coast some time and we’ll catch some waves!!!!! Merry Christmas MAN!
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