Good Sunday evening to one and all. We are heading into our Christmas week and everyone is asking if it will be white this year. The short answer is… I see no reason it shouldn’t be white! We have a storm system that will roll eastward out of the Rockies across the Tennessee Valley Christmas Eve then turn the corner up the east coast Christmas Day. That is a very favorable track for accumulating snows around here.
As a matter of fact… if the models continue to hold firm with this storm… an upgrade to Winter Storm Threat would be possible tonight or Monday.
In the short term… some light snow or flurries will be possible tonight and Monday ahead of a clipper. Temps Monday will be about the same as where we have been the past few days. This clipper loos weak with limited moisture across our region. A swath of light snow will be with us Monday night and Tuesday morning with up to an inch possible in the north. Temps will continue to run cold with highs Tuesday in the low and mid 30s as some drizzle or light rain takes over.
Colder temps and some light snow and flurries would then be possible Wednesday into Thursday.
The storm system takes shape across the Rockies late Thursday then rolls into the southern plains states by Friday morning. It will then roll to the east across the Ky/Tn border Friday afternoon into Christmas Eve. Snow and a mix will be along and north of the exact track of the low with some cold rains to the south. As the low moves off to our east Christmas Eve Night… everyone goes over to snow with snow continuing into Christmas Day. Accumulating snows are likely during this time thus the increased threat for a White Christmas. 
Here is how the GFS sees things…
The GFS looks like it may be just a tad fast and the European Model agrees…
A look at the numbers from the European suggest most of the precipitation falls as snow for much of the region. This will be followed by a major shot of cold air for later Christmas day into early the following week.
There ya have it… a GREAT chance at a white Christmas and the chance we have to upgrade this system. A Winter Storm Threat for Christmas? Wow… that would really solidify this December as historical for cold and snow as we are already well on our way to doing that.
Full update coming your way tonight so check back. Have a great evening and take care.
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CB hope ur right but i dont see it, maybe north i 64 gewts a inch or so, but south rain,rain mix to snow at end. and be hard to lay much with so much rain.
luv ya MAN i trust u more than me but my meter says 15 percent white christmas for 85 percent of state
Hi Chris,
What does the long-term forecast for winter (Jan-Feb) look like?
Thanks – Dorothy
WOW!!! If this pans out with another big storm chance around New Years… we could see over a foot on the ground to start the new year 🙂
Can you pin down the E-town/Hodgenville area? Seems like we get the ice and with family coming on, we need some warning. Are we looking at snow, ice, or just a cold rain?
does this mean we need to cancalled christmas since peoples are coming in.
18 GFS is further north giving much of KY more rain than snow. Let’s hope that’s a BAD run and not a serious trend for this storm.
Huh?
Well peoples cant drive in a foot of snow you know.
Hey Chris do you think there will be school on 1/3/11?. That question is about as crazy as asking Chris to pinpoint snow or ice accumulations from a possible storm event 5 days out. The models can only give us a macro view at this time not a micro view.
Hey Chris what time do you think the snow will start falling in the Lou. & lex. area on Dec.31st. I have tickets to b.ball game. Should I sale them of hold onto my tickets.
I believe that “cancalled” is past tense for “the can is calling.” I think Rolo will back me up on this one.
Amazing pattern we’re in so I wouldn’t be surprised. This winter so far has been NOTHING like the past eleven………..That said, we can’t be sure what will happen this far in advance….I hope it does…..I am starting to get a little sick of the cold though, and it’s not even Jan yet…craziness!
It can snow 5 feet, that doesnt Cancel Christmas….Xmas isnt about getting together and opening gifts, its about the birth of Christ, people don’t gotta be together to celebrate the birth of Christ… But with that said.. let it snow : )
Rolo, I agree. North, as usual will have best shot and fence city over central Ky. Us common folks will probably get the scraps.
Similar setup to last one, unless Tennessee is the fence. I am JUST as tired of posting this same stuff as you all are tired of rading it, but tge warm air
Christmas is a time when peoples is suppose to be together.
Hell if noone cares then let the power
go off then.
Typing on a phone sux. Warm air always seems to win in the heart of Ky, when a mix is involved.
BUBBA people dont like to hear it, but the FACTS back us up.
well goodnite all, 330 comes early.
Amen
Thanks Chris for all you do, it is all appreciated.
To quote the Grinch: “He hadn’t stopped Christmas from coming! It came! Somehow or other, it came just the same!…Maybe
Christmas…perhaps…means a little bit more.”
So true Sharon 🙁
amen…amen preach it sister!!..:)
I think you need to tone it down a notch..its gonna be ok…no one is forecasting a doomsday storm by no means…thank you, everyone play nice…
Thanks Chris for all the updates even this close to the holidays when the call of duty tightens up with work and family…Looking forward to the snow for Christmas even if it is just flying in the air..beats sunshine and 50*..unfortunately the NWS in JKL is saying a CHANCE of RAIN or SNOW on Christmas day down here, I guess we’ll see we seen to have played this game all month long down here
I agree 110% 😉
Hi RhondaB!!!!!
Let’s see….Chris and the models say SNOW for Christmas Eve and Christmas. The usual suspects call for rain without saying why. Just their hunch, I guess. Also the NWS leans toward snow. Hmmmm….Think I’ll go with Chris and the Pros. :0
yep, I agree
I drove to Cincy and then L’ville during Christmas ’04. Both got a foot of snow and I-71 was completely snow covered. Yet I still made it to see family. No 4wd or chains. It’s just snow, no need to panic.
I’m a
flori
I’m a Florida transplant, so a white Christmas would be a first.
Wow!!!!! Wouldn’t it be something if we did get snow for Christmas? This is something that I’ll really be paying attention. What has me really curious about this is that the NWS is leaning toward snow as of this evening’s update. It’s something worth watching!
HEY Rhonda and SUSAN! Glad to the some “old” bloggers, SEE IT AINT OVER! lol just to finish the quote! lol
““And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow,
stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons.
It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags.
And he puzzled and puzzled ’till his puzzler was sore.
Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn’t before.
What if Christmas, he thought, doesn’t come from a store.
What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more.” MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU ALL!
Hey, I live down in Campbellsville…and me and my Family plan to head out to Champaign, Illinois around noon Christmas Eve… If I inturperated the 18z Snowfall Accumulation Map right, it looks as if Champaign, Illinois would be looking at a foot or more of snow from the Christmas System!!! Do you see this being true??? PLEASE BE!!!
This is a storm that could drop a half-foot a snow easily here if the low follows a path into Tennessee. But, I have a feeling that this one is going to head north. I just have a gut feeling that it’s going to head just a little too far north to bury us.
Hi Susan! Hi Chelle! Merry Christmas!
Knox has decided not to make up those days after all. No school tomorrow or Tuesday
She is saying: “Does this mean that we need to cancel our Christmas plans? We have family coming home for Christmas!”
Now guys, be good. O.K.? 🙂
Are they still giving snow and a change over to freezing rain for Mon. night? I hope no more. My driveway has just begun to melt today. No school for Clay County tomorrow or Tuesday. We go back to school on Jan.3 maybe, if this winter weather lets up. I do hope we get a white Christmas. It just make it feel more special. Merry Christmas everyone.
Well, thisis Sunday evening, and the system in question is developing mid to late week, so, I feel pretty safe in saying that it will snow somewhere for Christmas…will it be us? Guess we will take a wait and see attitude on that one at this point…Christmas will still be Christmas. And guys, I like “White Christmas” a LOT better than
“Christmas Island.” But, we will see….Thanks Chris, for the update, and the tidbit! Food for thought, for sure.
Thank you!!
Oh, if only it could be that way.
dude i am feeling the same thing. look out i70. but wrap around flurries could still happen…
what are the chances of clear skys 12/21 for the eclipse
Good question! What time as well?
It certainly is a possibility that it could go north. The 18Z run was north…but the 00Z run is a little further south. Really depends on the upper level wave moving through. Nonetheless, lots of warm air ahead of the system resulting in a cold rain on Friday with a switch over Friday night.
It certainly is a possibility. The 18Z run was north, while the 00Z run is back to the south. It really depends on the upper level wave. Nonetheless, tons of warm air ahead of the system will result in a cold rain on Friday with a switch over late on Christmas Eve.
arnt the 18z’s usually considered the “bad ones” yea 0z has it smack over knoxville again
In general the 06Z and 18Z runs have pretty bad skill scores compared to the 00Z and 12Z runs. Typically, I do not throw much weight to them when putting together a forecast.
I love the Blog! Snow falling in Frankfort at 11:48. No Weather guy but Chris said that was a possibility tonight! Warm trend dudes, good look with this winter! 🙂
I like how Channel 8 in Knoxville has been giving us here up to 3 inches now for Christmas Day since 2 days ago. 🙂
I know, my wife teaches for Knox and is excited they decided to call off for tomorrow and Tuesday.
I remembered that one was less reliable, but really never knew that. Thank you!
Hey very nice blog!! Man .. Beautiful .. Amazing .. I will bookmark your blog and take the feeds also..
You made some good points there. I did a search on the topic and found most people will agree with your blog. Thanks
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