Good Sunday everyone. We are now less than a week away from the big day as Old Saint Nick is getting the reindeer ready for their big flight across the world. As we know… Santa loves him some snow and he might be in luck around here this year as there is an increased risk of snow on the ground when he comes to town.
As a matter of fact… the next two weeks can be special in terms of snow and cold for the Holiday period that includes Christmas and the New Year.

Let’s start with the weather we have today and work forward. Highs will generally run very close to where we have been the past few days as many areas stay in the 20s. I will be curious to see where lows are this morning as areas with clearing can drop into the single digits compared to the mid and upper teens for those with clouds. Speaking of… a mix of sun and clouds will be with us today.

A very weak clipper will be working our way late Monday into Tuesday. This will have very little deep moisture to work with. Clouds will increase quickly Monday with a band of overrunning light snow developing by evening. This band can put down up to an inch of snow across the north. Some slightly milder air will work in from south to north by Tuesday morning with a transition to light freezing rain then some very light rain and drizzle for much of Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will only be in the middle 30s for most of the area making for a rather ugly day. Again… anything falling from the sky will be on the light side. Here is how the GFS sees the precipitation type…



Colder air would then filter back in for Tuesday night and Wednesday as some flurries and light snow showers should be noted.

Then the White Christmas Watch will officially be on. A storm system will come rolling eastward out of the Rockies by Friday morning and roll eastward across southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee. This storm would have quite a bit of juice to work with. As it stands now… Christmas Eve day would feature a cold rain in the south with a mix and snow in the northern parts of the state. All areas would then transition to snow Christmas Eve with that carrying us into Christmas Day. Take a look at what some of the models have to say…

GFS



GFS Ensembles

It should be noted the new European Model looks a lot like the above models… maybe even a bit colder for Christmas Eve Day.

Are you dreaming yet? Well… it certainly is no pipe dream as I fully expect snow to be flying Christmas Eve into Christmas Day across this region. How much remains to be seen… but stay tuned as this could turn into a decent system for our part of the world.

Oh yeah… the GFS says Happy New Year…



I know that is almost two weeks away… but the overall look to the pattern suggests there could be a big winter storm somewhere in the eastern part of the country during the last week of the year into the first few days of 2011.

By the way… I still see no signs of this cold pattern breaking down. The European model weekly forecasts through mid January basically keep the pattern locked in.

I will have an update on things later this afternoon so check back. Have a great Sunday and take care.