Good Saturday everyone and thanks for checking out the blog. Your friendly weather dude is tired from all the action of the past few weeks and needs a little R and R so I am going to scale back on posts this for a bit. That means you guys will only get two updates a day this weekend. 
Old man winter looks to continue to flex his muscles over the upcoming Christmas week with two shots at wintry weather. Plus a renewed assault of arctic air potentially lurking for the final week of the year.
In the short term… cold temps and the threat for a little bit of light snow will be with us this weekend. While any area will potentially see a few flakes today… parts of southern and southeastern Kentucky will be on guard for a streak of light snow working quickly northeastward across this region. There is a chance this band can put down some light accumulations today. You can track the action here…
The radar bark is likely to be worse than the bite with this system. Temps today and Sunday should be similar to what we had Friday for highs. Sunday may have slightly colder air in the north and east. Watch the lows the next few mornings as they can really bottom out if skies clear. Some areas could make a run at 0 yet again if we get clearing.
The next threat for some wintry weather will arrive on the scene Monday night and Tuesday in the form of a weak clipper working in from the west and northwest. The models are having a tough time figuring out where to place the low since it is a fairly broad and weak system. The new European Model shows this point very well as it has 4 different weak low pressure centers…
The Canadian Model continues to show more of a consolidated look with a weak low taking the Tennessee track…
Tuesday Afternoon
That said… if those northern models verify… they still produce a swath of some overrunning light snow Monday night and Tuesday morning for parts of the region. The best chance for some snowfall would be in the north and east. This system looks like the VERY distant cousin of the storm we just had as it may have just enough push of some warm air advection to produce a mix or rain across especially the southern half of the state. Right now… this is not looking to be a huge deal, no matter what.
Before that clipper works in… we could see a band of light snow rolling out ahead of it for Monday. Regardless… the clipper could give a swath of accumulating snows to some folks here Tuesday.
Beyond that… we will see another system moving our way just in time for Christmas. This has the potential to be a little bigger deal and is a storm worth watching. The GFS blows this up into a nice sized storm of rain,ice and accumulating snows around here. Watch for the south trend on this one too.
The GFS Ensembles are giving a good signal for a storm around this time as well…
The European looks similar…
So there you have it… a lot of tracking ahead of us leading up to Christmas and the blog will be here with you every step of the way.
Before i leave… take a look at this awesome pic of a snow igloo from Lawrence County…
I’m told that took 11 hours to build. Good job guys… just dont light a fire inside or you will find out what snow is made of really fast. 
I will update things later today so be sure to check back. Have a great Saturday and take care.
Select Page
First!
That radar does look impressive.
yep as predicted WEAK and rain for next clipper.
PAINTS ON THE GROUND!!
Thanks for the update, Chris. Get some rest. You deserve it. (I am also sure that your lovely wife and children would like to see you for a bit during the holidays, too.;) )
Hoping the second system brings us a white Christmas…we will see….
Well, its off to work. Have a GREAT weekend, everyone!
Got our dusting in Knox
yep, getting light snow and as andy said here in knox co. got a dustingg …where ya at Brandon..whats it look like in Middlesboro this morning?..
CB’s dedication ROCKS!
Dang! As stands, a lot of us do not want the system for end of week, since similar profile as last one. If ice is in the mix, we know what will happen, since it has happened EVERY time.
Nothing in any stretch to look forward to if a mix, since most will almost certainly get ice. At a minimum, we can hope the sun comes out and we get some 30 degree temps to get rid of the current ice.
Snow is nice, but I would rather have cold rain than ice. Seems not something to be excited about, but weary instead.
Some in the north and east have a winter wonderland, but most of us currently have a winter bummer land. 😉 🙁
Bubba G I agree with the “give me rain not ice” opinion! I don’t think Christmas dinner would fare well with no electric! Not to mention heat!!
The igloo is awesome…love it!!
Agreed..tie igloo rocks and bubba is right, most of the snow is a bummer right now, just plain nasty looking.
When the Euro shifts tracks like that, it’s best to take notice. It’s possible the model had a bad run, but unlikely. After all of the praise it’s received, I would hate to see the GFS get one right.
Take care of yourself, Chris. Rest up and enjoy time with the family. Thanks for all you do!
Wanted to add one other thing. I get the sense if we don’t get something to hit in the next two weeks, it might be some time before we have another chance. The NAO looks to go positive around the first of the year and the effects of the AO seem to be waning. Not saying the blowtorch comes after January 1, but I think la nina might flew it’s muscles.
it gets close before the 1st then tanks again. the AO stays -. I still think the flip is coming just don’t see it yet. That being said I have not had a chance to examine the euro weeklies released on friday which run into mid jan now.
This is bad news. Any chance that you are wrong…that January will be COLD and filled with snow?
I just giving my gut opinion based on what I read on some of the other weather boards. Don Sutherland at americanwx.com has done quite a bit of research on -AO and had a good beat on last year. He expects the pattern to break down the first week of Janaury, but thinks it could come back in late Janaury and February. That would be much like last year. That was el nino and this is la nina.
Why do you think the winter mix potential has been so high with these clippers this year? I remember talk about WAA advection with the February 8 storm last season, but that was more about rain/snow than ice. Is the cold air not as deep this time of the year?
BUBBA and othersthere no majior ICE coming befgor christmas, just calm down.
anything be rain and snow as low passes to east.
I’m trading my gently used snow shovel for a nice rain jacket size XL. Any color would be fine except pink…If interested please let me know by Monday. Can ship shovel to Canada!
What looked to be a great chance at a white Christmas for Central KY a couple days ago, now looks like rain or Ice. Hopefully the models will trend further south. Extended says low to mid 40 highs
possible for friday. (grain of salt though, source was TWC) 🙂 Chris will have the final say!!!!
Igloo is awesome! The snow at my house seems too powdery to build an igloo. I am in Martinsville, IN there is about 4-5 in of snow on the ground here.
Thanks for all you do to keep us well informed! Get some rest I’m sure it is much needed. It’s been a wild winter so far!
we’ve had several arcitc air masses to enforce low level cold. clippers often have strong WAA ahead of them. SO you have strong WAA focused in the upper levels and cold air at the low levels thus freezing rain.
If anyone wants to see what 6 inches of snow can do to London, visit http://www.bbc.com and watch some of their news videos. It’s a sad state of affairs when London can have all of the nsow they’ve had we’re messing around with ice and sleet.
WHITE CHRISTMAS for 90 percent of ky is a FO GET AAAAAAAAA BOUT IT.as many know things have to even out and we had a WINTER in DEC unlike years n past so look for a WARM UP to level things out. i predict close to 50 degrees on CHRISTMAS EVE.
this ole highway getting longer,
seems there aint no end in sight,
to sleep would be best, but i cant afford to rest,
got a ride in denver tomm nite,
and the white line getting longer and the saddle getten cold and IM MUCH TO YOUNG TO FEEL THIS DAMN OLD.
one of the greatest songs ever.
If its not going to snow, I would rather it be sunny and highs in the 60’s. lol… I cant wait for my Daytona 500 trip in Feb to get me some warm weather.
Did you pour paint on the ground to turn it white so you would think you had snow? 😉
Brandon we use to go every year for the 500 and the Pepsi 400.In fact we were there when that happened to Earnhardt buy we didnt know till we got to the airport he had died.Have a great time and warm weather.
The Louisville NWS looks VERY hopeful for a white Christmas 🙂
Here are their thoughts “CONTINUING WITH THE CURRENT TELECONNECTIONS AND NEGATIVE NAO…WOULD
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THUS…HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS FOR NOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER MID TO UPPER 30S…WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S. AS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY…ANOTHER WINTERY SYSTEM COULD
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION PROVIDING US WITH A WHITE CHRISTMAS. 00Z
AND 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A PHASING SYSTEM
AND SOUTHERN LOW TRACK. THIS EVENT WOULD LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN OR
SNOW CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE BY
CHRISTMAS DAY. HAVE ADDED 30 PERCENT CHANCE POPS TO THE CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY FORECAST AND THE HOPES FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS
ARE ALIVE AND WELL.”
This is what Channel 8 in Knoxville just out out for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day…
Knoxville
0.60 inches of RAIN on Christmas Eve
followed by 0.5 to 1.0 inches of SNOW on Christmas Morning
Crossville
0.75 inches of RAIN on Christmas Eve
followed by 1.0 to 2.0 inches of SNOW on Christmas Morning
Morristown
0.58 inches of RAIN on Christmas Eve
followed by 1.5 to 2.0 inches of SNOW on Christmas Morning
London, KY
0.89 inches of RAIN on Christmas Eve
followed by 1.5 to 3 inches of SNOW on Christmas Morning
so noone knows.
I asked Chief Meteorologist David Aldrich about Middlesboro and this was his reply.
About the same as London, KY above, Brandon…an estimated 1.5 to 3 inches of SNOW on Christmas Morning.
—-David
who will get 1-3 inches on christmas.
Chirs,
I hope you have enjoyed your day of well deserved rest, but I have sure missed your updates. I can’t wait for your next one later, I guess I will watch the 6:00 weather to see what those other guys are saying about snow for this week. Hope snow is in the forecast for Mon. and Tues. and for Christmas. Still looks like Clay County will not get in school Mon. we still have plenty of ice on our roads. No melting here!!!
CHRIS NO NEED FORE UPDATES when the next system is rain with temps pushing upper 40s.
FRIDAT system the saame.
At least the majority of the models are in agreement about the storm coming up next weekend. Hopefully this foundation will stay true to form. If not this weather pattern will be kind of like UofK football a season of miss opportunities.
Rolo, your negative attitude is super annoying…I love Chris and his updates.. I trust his forcast!!!
Well noone familes will be able to come in for christmas or does noone care.
With the exception of a little snow the past week or two, the last 11 years have all been about missed opportunities. I keep hoping for that one year we break out of the slump and the dreaded “D” word is wiped out of central kentucky meteorology vocabulary forever.
Like Chris and a few of the other weather pros mentioned before the last two systems rolled through… We’re locked in for the month… It’s the 16th. Snow for Christmas.
I myself dont want no snow this week thru CHRISYTMAS and other than a dusting as low passes that all u going get.
annoying or not. sorry.
Are you all happy since it snowing
noone family can come in for christmas.
where is it snowing at? But to answer your question anytime its snowing i am happy period.
good luck with that prediction. I don’t see it happening. in fact it is more likely the snowcover is twice as deep with most of us in the 20’s. Now Tuesday in far southern ky for 50 maybe.
I’m liking our chances for the pre-chirstmas storm later next week from a synoptic standpoint. a week low tracks form the southwest across the deep south with arctic high pressure up over the great lakes to send in more cold.
if it is snow a fews inches noone can drive on the show lol:)
A) The GFS HAS been getting them right. It totally nailed this ice storm when the other models were all over the place, from a week out! B) I’d forecast based on history over teleconnections any month of the year. 1989 was a horrible December, and the following 3 months went opposite with heat. 80 by the second week of March. I’m doubtful this pattern will stay.
Your thoughts are always appreciated. Have you got a better sense of the pattern after reviewing the Euro weeklies?
then they need to learn how its not that hard 😉 Ice is the hard stuff to drive on
hmmm…they are showing on their 8 day forecast wvlt 8 of 55/rain on friday and 50/rain and falling temps. on christmas day with flurries late…but we always are colder and snowier than Knoxville/valley locations…
Join their facebook page. Thats where David posted it at.
The GFS does fine once we get three to four days out, but it doesn’t fare well against the Euro in the medium range. He may be over the top sometimes, but I think DT at wxrisk.com is right in his view the GFS is lacking. As for this last storm, every now and then a blind squirrel finds a nut!
nope the private site that i can view them on only shows it on occasion. the euro monthly forecast does show a reversal.
rolo your a funny dude lol
WOW lots of sourpusses here now, the blog USED to be FUN! 🙂
Rolo!!! I hope that billy goat keeps on forcasting. Never give it up!
That was the good ole days, wasn’t it? That’s when we had Bernie! Wonder what he’s doin now?
Andy what is show? lol
Kinda miss ole Bernie. Those were good days. Just never could get it snow.
How do you all expect your famlies to makes it in for christmas if it is snowing on Christmas eve and on christmas day dont you think it would be dangerous. Alot of peoples are driving and not flying.
It’s not like they are calling for a BLIZZARD…..and besides we can all sit here and moan and groan about getting snow or lack there of, but it is up to Mother Nature and God, not Bailey, not Rolo or any of US!
Vinny, Andy, Tim…..all the old bloggers, I guess we better not get excited or look forward to THUNDERSTORMS either……… 🙁
so Rolo is a weather person or what.
The only forecasters that I trust are Chris and Rolo. Still looking like rain for Christmas Rolo? If so, I will be certain to get out the umbrella. You da man rolo!
00z gfs was extreme for the 7-14 day period, ouch in terms of more cold and snow.
Horse Drawn Sleigh. Ya know, jingle Bells. Get in the spirit.
wonder whne chris will update.
Actually, I don’t like the ice. The snow is beautiful, but ice? It took forever just to get my car out this evening. It was stuck on the ice big time! 🙂
I’m dreaming of a white Christmas
Just like the ones we used to know
Where tree the tops glistened,
and children listened
He updates usually between 2am and 4am…. He likes to see the 00z run of the Euro which comes out around 2am or so.
A moment ago I took a look at the nam & gfs 0z runs for the Louisville area, the nam is a little more aggressive with the moisture. the nam solution start outs with a little snow before transition into rain. The gfs is treating this event as no more than a drizzle.
… to hear, sleigh bells in the snow…
your commet is snobby…..there’s more people on here now, old blogers are a thing of the past
And YOUR comments are RUDE and the OLD BLOGERS are NOT a thing of the past!