10:15PM Update

Good evening yet again. Just wanted to show you the hot off the presses run of the NAM and what it is thinking now in terms of snow and ice…

Again… this will be a very fast and hard hitting winter storm that will only stick around for about 12 hours for most places. I will have a full tracking blog up around midnight or so. Keep posting the weather where you live and take care.

9:15pm Update

Snow and freezing rain is rapidly developing across Kentucky right now and will continue to increase in both coverage and intensity into the overnight. The forecast appears to be in good shape. I just got a look at the new NAM and it continues to look about the same as earlier.

There is a TREMENDOUS amount of lift late tonight and early Thursday so the snowfall rates could be 1″-2″ per hour. The freezing rain threat is still on and this can lead to ice accumulations on the order of a half inch or so for some areas.

We will now begin nowcasting this storm and it all starts with you. Keep updating us on what this storm is doing where you live and take care.

7:45pm Update

Good evening once again. The Storm Prediction Center has sent out a special mesoscale discussion concerning the development of a mix freezing rain across parts of Kentucky over the next few hours. Here is the region they are watching…

MD 2129 graphic
Freezing rain snow will explode over the area within the next few hours as our winter storm kicks in. More updates to come so check back. Take care.

Previous Update

Good Evening gang. A major winter storm will move in across the state this evening and overnight and continue into Thursday. Significant snow and ice accumulations will be likely for much of the state and surrounding states. This will create dangerous travel conditions overnight into Thursday and the ice can create a lot of other problems.

Here is a look at the current warnings map…

As far as my final call on this winter storm… here is what the map looks like…

I feel pretty good with that map given the data I am seeing just hours before the storm cranks up. Let’s break it all down…

– Snow and ice will rapidly increase from west to east later this evening into Overnight. The precipitation will become heavy for much of the region into the first half of Thursday.

– I have a wide swath of 3″-6″ of snow across northern and eastern Kentucky. Within this area should be a region that can pick up even more snow on the tune of 4″-8″.

– Just to the south of the band of heaviest snow is where I am not as confident of the forecast because this is the area that will be seeing some precipitation changes. This region should start out as a period of heavy snowfall before going over to freezing rain and even some sleet. It is all about the timing of the chance from snow to ice in determining how much of each will fall. I went ahead and highlighted this region for a 3″-6″ snowfall and .25″-.50″ of ice potential. Again… it is all about the timing for this region.

– Farther south.. I lower the snow totals a bit to account for a quicker change from snow to ice. This region will likely see anywhere from 1″-4″ of snow before the change to freezing rain that can put down significant amounts of ice. This region may see precipitation end as plain rain.

– In western Kentucky… this should mainly be a ice and rain event with lower precip totals than areas farther east. Still… expect some big issues as it only takes a small amount of ice to become a headache.

Some more random winter storm thoughts from my weather noggin…

– This will be a very fast moving storm with the most areas only seeing 12 hours or so of precipitation.

– The snow and freezing rain will be falling at a heck of a clip by morning through early afternoon. This will be a sight to behold given the amount of lift I am seeing.

– Both the NAM and GFS are spitting out some ridiculous precip totals across southern and southeastern Kentucky. This region had better hope temps warm enough to switch this over to rain. If not… this may be a crippling ice storm for some areas. Right now… I am banking on temps going above freezing at some point leading to a change to rain. That said… the deeper valleys in this region tend to keep the cold longer and we have a frozen ground meaning the air temp can be above freezing and we are still getting ice buildup on the ground. My concern is growing for this area.

– We also have to watch for a region to pick up several inches of snow followed by several hours of freezing rain. I have that outlined on the map above and that would put a lot of weight on power lines and trees if it happens.

– Travel late tonight and Thursday is STRONGLY discouraged.

Let’s set you up now with some tracking tools…

Current Temps

I will add updates to this post through the evening so keep checking back. Have a great evening and take care.