12:10pm Update
Good afternoon gang… I wanted to add the new GFS maps to this post so you can compare and contrast them with the NAM. As I mentioned below… the NAM shows more precipitation than what the GFS is depicting and therefore has higher snow and ice amounts. That said… the placement of the snow and ice axis on both models is very similar.
Here is the GFS…
Again… both models have the same overall “theme” and only really differ on the amount of precipitation. There is a small difference in placement… but you can’t expect them to match perfectly.
In looking at these runs… I feel good about the forecast map I put out last night. I will be updating that this afternoon with a final call that will likely result in a few changes… namely to raise snow totals. I should have that map out by mid to late afternoon so keep checking back.
Take care.
Previous Update
Good Wednesday morning gang. Rarely is the sequel as good as the original… but the latest NAM Goes Bam flick goes above and beyond the original in terms of snow and ice production. The model is now spitting out a tremendous amount of precipitation across much of the state and lays a good old fashioned smackdown on a lot of people.
Take a look…
That is a double WOW on both of those maps. The model is cranking out up to a foot of snow into parts of northeastern Kentucky while expanding the overall heavy snowfall area. The ice map is UGLY and shows a fairly large area of better than .50″-.75″ of freezing rain. That is would cause a ton of power problems for the areas getting in on the significant icing.
One thing to keep in mind is.. most of this precipitation will be falling in a 12 hour window late tonight into Thursday. Can you imagine how hard it will have to come down to get those snow and ice totals? Wow. Traffic late tonight and Thursday is going to be a mess and travel is NOT recommended during this time for much of the region.
I see the new GFS is rolling in as I type and is does not produce as much precipitation as the NAM does. Still… it has significant snows and ice for many.
More updates to come… take care.
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1st
Hole
E
Smoke.
Those are SCARY numbers to be less than 12 hours out.
OK YOUR KILLING ME WITH THOSE SNOW TOTALS!!! WE’LL BE SETTING DOWN HERE CRYING..:(:(:(….
What’s it showing for Pike County? The maps aren’t loading at work for some reason.
Omg! We r like 10-12 inches. Guess we’ll
be trapped on this hill til spring thaw! Lol!
first?
I’ve booked a hotel room close to my house in Lexington. If you live in the areas expected to get heavy ice, and have no source of heat other than electric, you might want to do the same. If the storm does not cause power outage I can always cancel the reservation at no charge as long as it is canceled before 6:00pm Thursday. Call me paranoid, but I’m just trying to protect my family.
Josh, you are right on the edge. Northern Pike shows 6-8″ of snow and almost no ice. Southern Pike shows 1-2″ of snow and up to a half inch of ice.
You could get ANYTHING.
Please Chris NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
I think Tornadolarkin nailed this one….where are you..
OK, Chris. This map is scary….hope it doens’t get that bad. Of course, it is nice to know in advance what is headed this way….
The only good thing about the 12Z run of the NAM is it moves the accumulating ice farther south. It still gives Louisville a coating, but not a crippling amount. That is good thing for the rest of the state because it would free up all of those crews. If Louisville is crippled, the it will slow down pwer returning to the whole state.
I’m hoping this storm tracks just another 20-25 miles south of this new track. I don’t care about the snow so much as I want to avoid the ice.
This ETA model is in an agreement with NAM. Check it out!
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif
Don’t play with my emotions like this. It looks like my part of Fayette Co might have moved into the bam area.
According to the NAM, just a couple miles is the difference between a major ice storm or a major snow storm in Pike county..
OK I am in Millville (Woodford Co) Am I seeing this correctly…up to 6 inches snow with maybe .25 ice? Not sure if I am reading right….
Beverly where abouts are you located?
Uhhh….If you’re out of juice at the house, what makes you think the hotel will have any? 🙂
Can anybody translate the latest GFS Chris is seeing? How much difference is there between it and the NAM?
Will London be Mainly ICE or Rain?
If the lines set up by the above maps, north side of LEX will get 6-8″ while the south side gets 1-2″. I hope that’s not the case and that the line moves about 15-20 miles further south, since I live in SW Jessamine! I really don’t like ice!
Good afternoon, everyone. Can any of you PLEASE tell me what this specifically means for Fayette County. When will this start – and how much snow and ice? I have family that work second shift and I am a nervous wreck about them being out on the roads during this! Thank you so much for your help. I sincerely appreciate it!
The hotel has generator power. Almost all hotels do.
That’s the way I’m reading it, too. We stocked up on firewood and bourbon this morning — necessities in an ice storm!
Not looking good for me.
1st to post.
Really depends on where you live in Lex/Fayett County. If the above maps hold true (doubtful) then the north side would get mostly if not all snow (6-8 inches) while the south side sees a inch or two of snow and freezing rain. Keep in mind though…what you see on the maps will most assuredly not be exactly what you get, so take the gradient that runs right through Lex with a huge grain of salt.
EVAP COOLING going to keep it snow longer in SE KY. book it.
Being always amazed at the uncanny and unfaltering accuracy of our Baileycasts, I am the more bemused, disheartened and dumfounded at the seemingly faulty, dare I say incompetence, of other outlets by comparison.
I took this screen capture of The Weather Channel app on my phone. I want to see just what happens for Ashland come tomorrow and Friday. I wonder if it will actually make a shattering sound when Mr. Bailey has blown it out of the water (or in this case, out of the snow bank)?
Have a look for yourself: http://yfrog.com/h0p3sgj
OMGeeewhiz!
It means we are going to get slammed in two phases. First, with two to three inches of heavy wet snow, then add a half an inch of ice on top of it. According to the latest NAM those are conservative numbers! Good thing this is a fast moving system. Rush hour tomorrow morning will be an adventure to say the least.
I never did like TWC. Seems like they runs temps 5 degrees too warm all year and can’t predict much of anything (at least in our neck of the woods)
Is there any concern that the temps are already above freezing in W. KY. at 11:00 and 28 in Bowling Green. Seems to me that the temperatures are warming faster than what they thought. Anyone want to comment?
Wendy, I live in mercer also and we are under the gun the way it looks as of now.
Unable to see the map, what does it look like for Johnson County?
What does it show for Madison County? I can’t see the map.
Incompetence. You nailed it Pastor.
8-12″, Kaye.
Looking at the map, Louisville looks to get mostly ice. For an idiot like me, can someone who knows weather give me an idea of what to expect in the louisville area?
this is what i was talking about yesterday…if we got alot of sun today the temps.would go into the 30’s..andcloud cover moves in on that, temps. wont fall much, so it would decrease the threat of any significant snow/ice…will more than likely end up being heavily weighted rain event down here along the border…but i guess we’ll see
That is the NAM. Same model.
Robbie, think about what you just said/typed…or do you have anything up there to even THINK WITH??! Just HOW is this going to be a “good” thing for the rest of the state if we get ICE…hmmm?? It’s not going to “free up” any light crews at all because they will be too busy trying to restore OUR power. In Dec ’04, we here in Nelson Co. got hit hard by ALL ICE and no power until Christmas morning, and cable was out for another week..in ’09 we lucked out w/ power staying on, but cable went out,and I managed to rake up a huge year-long(almost!) medical bill from falling on said ice(well, it was really a combo of slush & mud at the end of the storm)by breaking my collarbone, which, btw, is still paining me occassionally.
I don’t see where your statement there benefits anyone. It just tells me that you only care about what happens in your backyard, to heck w/ the rest of us that may take the brunt of this possibly short-lived brutal storm!
I’m done now.
once again the maps won’t show up … why do they do that?? anywho … can someone explain what London/Corbin is supposed to get ??
YOu will be crying because you will be without power 😉
Thanks for the update Chris. I hope the next one is this storm moves father south and gives us lots of snow and temps don’t go up. Probably just wishful thinking. I would love to get the 12 inches expected up north. It would be a snow like we used to get when I was a little girl. Any chances of Clay County getting more snow than ice. I do not want ice. How much ice is it giving for the northern Clay county area? Anyone out there from southeastern KY want to comment?
I woke up this morning and got a bowl of cereal, I realized there was not enough sugar in the cereal so I added more sugar to the cereal.
if i’m not mistaken BG didn’t get near as cold as us i know most of the western part was in the 20s according to Mesonet
How about Richmond? Maps aren’t showing up for me either. Any ideas as to how to fix that?
possibly a half an inch of ice, and a inch of snow, then change to rain.
I love it when the NAM goes BAM. Apparently a lot of folks have quickly forgotten that it only takes .5″ of ice to cause MAJOR problems… and .25″ of ice can be expensive. People taking this lightly, even in Louisville, are kidding themselves.
Thank you both so very much for taking the time to answer! I really appreciate it! Stay safe and warm!
for those asking the nam here shows 3/4 to 1” freezing rain for madison county…with 1-2 inches of snow in far northern madison county…up near the ky river.
Thanks for the update Chris. I hope the next one is this storm moves father south and gives us lots of snow and temps don’t go up. Probably just wishful thinking. I would love to get the 12 inches expected up north. It would be a snow like we used to get when I was a little girl. Any chances of Clay County getting more snow than ice. I do not want ice. How much ice is it giving for the northern Clay county area? Anyone out there from southeastern KY want to comment?
TAKE IT EASY NOW…..NO ONE LIKES ICE OR WANTS TO SEE ANYONE WITHOUT UTILITES OR ANYONE GET INJURED.
I updated this post to include the GFS snow and ice maps.
I think the area of Morehead to Ashland is going to get hit really hard. I’m from the Grayson Lake area. Keep up the good work CB
I think what Robbie is trying to say is that if Louisville is crippled by ice we will be using all our crews to restore Louisville power. If Louisville is relatively out of the ice our crews will be available to provide aid to those counties. Sharing of resources.
You’re right, Debbie, no one in their right mind would wish the ice on anyone.
We already have .50 inches of ice in Georgetown…………on the Freezer walls!!!!!!
I wonder if the speed of the system will mitigate the effect of the WAA somewhat?
i think i will be heading up to nky for this storm…the trends overall is for more of an ice event than a snow one in central ky. i think the placement as CB said is very simuliar and the heavy snow band looks to be about 30-40 miles north of lexington at this time.
I just read that CNN is here in Louisville and The Weather Channel are on the way…I’m thinking that maybe that means something??? WOW
One problem or solution I am seeing with this mess is temperatures here in southern Kentucky are already exceeding projections. Given the moisture and cloud cover will only aid in the warming this could push everything to the north.
Come on Patty. We’ve done this before. I just took my generator from the last storm to Henrys small motor shop, (free advertising for Henry) for a quick tune-up. Getting the Kereosene heaters ready as well.
Well, I just saw on another station that part of the “voice of reason’ team is calling for us to get mostly rain here in Pulaski County….
so, now, who do you think is going to be closer to correct with this one?
Just want to add to the chorus of appreciative folks for this blog – both Chris and everybody else! Bracing for a quick but heavy hit here in Johnson County, wasn’t really believing the hype until the most recent NAM and GFS. Everybody try to stay warm and dry!
I know we are all worried about the next 24 hours but– beyond that– what is expected? I am hoping we can get back in school Friday to get at least 1 day in this week? Thanks to you all..I feel like you are my friends! (except that one dude that told me to barricade and get the ammo ready.)
Well given that temperatures are exceeding projections they could be right. As now models are of little help, and forecasters turn to what is known as now casting. Reading live data to adjust the projections. Remember this system is one of those were a few degrees can make a world of difference. And if this trend continues Chris will adjust our area as well on his final call map.
So, 1st, do you all think Berea (southern madison co) is going to change to all rain? IF so, will the rain still freeze when it hits? Also, I have 2 small children and dont have any alternate source of heat, should I stay with my mom tonight?
Well Tommy more than welcome to head to Morehead…looks like we are going to get the heavy snow..definitely am happy about that! Sorry for the folks with the ice..man, been through that..no power for 7 days..no way to get to the store…nope..that was enough..:)
I think what Robbie is trying to say is that if Louisville is crippled by ice we will be using all our crews to restore Louisville power. If Louisville is relatively out of the ice our crews will be available to provide aid to those counties. Sharing of resources.
You’re right, Debbie, no one in their right mind would wish the ice on anyone.
So guys, 1st do you thinkn Berea (southern Madison Co) will stay freezing rain, or change to all rain? Also, If we did change to plain rain, would it still freeze on contact? Also, I have 2 small children and no alternate source of heat, should I consider staying elsewhere tonight?
ur not getting a foot up north, bailey just updated the real model GFS has 3-6 for u all.
This storm is like a red-headed step child of winter storms : )
Lisa I am coming to your house lol.
it’s 24 degrees here in Corbin with cloud cover moving in. I wonder if it will really hit the projected high of 31, given by nws jkl. The nws also says that the temps are supposed to warm to 34 overnight…anyone agree with this? just wondering how quickly we will see the transition to plain rain. any comments are appreciated.
You can keep it with you.
it’s 24 degrees in here in Corbin. Well below freezing at the moment, but NWS jkl is giving for the temps to warm above freezing overnight. anyone venture a guess on when it may transition to plain rain for us?
Rolo if My power goes out I am coming to yours or Lisa’s you have a generator so yours lol.You can teach me how to hunt play cards and don’t forget the Booze lol.
i’ve been moderated twice. just wondering when southern ky will see the transition to plain rain. temps are supposed to rise overnight
Rolo,
Where did you go to Meteorologist Degree at?
sheesh…I think I’ll take a dose of NyQuil…someone wake me up when this mess is over!!
the squirrels in my backyard have been really busy all day.
i was watching cnn and the met on there outlined the area for the upcoming ice storm and said we would have an ice skating rink tomorrow and he advised the schools to call it off for tomorrow already and not to chance it. so i reckon we need to get the ice skates ready anybody want to loan cb a pair? just kidding cb stay warm all
Is the GFS or the NAM generally more on target? Or does it take a combo of the two for totals?
at CHRIS BAILEY TECH.
studied early under FRANK FAULKNER as well.
I kniow Tim.I am so sick with this cough cold no power will push me over the edge.
Going to Lisa’s she is closer to town with Bourbon
GFS 90 percent, the NAM is known for drinking and blowing things up.
WoW. Rolo ? I think he showed his pig skin ( sheep skin ) from Phoenix College Online self study course.
Negative comments from him get negative feedback. Just about like the temp was this morning. Think he needs to live in Hawaii where it is high of 80 and low of 60. Just about all the time. CB needs spell check for him too but then again I by pass Rolo’s post.
Sure hope you’re right about that, rolo!! We don’t need a second Christmas season in a row without power!
You are right…it doesn’t matter how much ice. ICE is always bad. People never take it seriously because they can’t see it.
LOL…gotcha. Thanks!
Bailey Tech is good enough for me!
I really loved Frank. I think they let him go because he did not have a degree in meteorology ? could be wrong though.
Great person on the news too !!!!!!!!
When does all this start today?
snow/sleet/and freezing rain being reported as close as nashville area…moving northeast at 25mph
It’s looking like Scott Co will be getting mostly snow. Am I reading that right??
Is Louisville to be to worse area?
The power company just came through our road a couple of weeks ago and totally mangled the trees with all their chopping and cutting. But looking at this map, I may be glad that they did it. Jessamine looks to be sitting on the line. I know these maps aren’t perfect, so I’m noticing what a huge difference 20 or 30 miles could make between snow and ice.
Where is the precipitation for this storm coming from? On the regional radars, it doesnt look like there is much at all to our SW?
Ole Frank was my favorite back in the days before CB. Enjoyed watching him on the evening news when we were expecting snow.
Here is a good pic of the storm
http://www.emergencyemail.org/vuetoo/vue1/situationonetemplate.asp?l=u662***58***47***47t1r5.t5sp.0n5n.t18***47t1r5p1y14***47t1r5rn56***47u744vpn0rF***47p1y14_zrq***47yn6r56.w2t&c=Weather Eastern USA
Since when? GFS had higher snow totals and qpf on the last storm than the NAM. The NAM is usually much more accurate under 48 hours than the GFS
Or is that just the cloud cover? I am no good at this.If it is the storm it really looks scary.
Same place you got your English degree at. 😉 Seriously, chill out…Rolo is just stating his opinion, same as many on this blog. 🙂
Im so over this storm. It changes way too much. Just get here and move out.
Howard, you are such an idiot. No one cares about the squirrels in your backyard. This just in: the midday NAM model projects howard to get stuck in his house and run out of water. You’re not the ice tiger guy, are you?
Any reports of accumulation down that way yet, Tim?
I agrees Chas 1000%.Leave hinm alone.
I’m hoping that the snowfall shifts south, but the may not happen.
This is what I meant. If Louisville is not crippled by power outages, the crews in Louisville can be used all over the state. That speeds up power returning every where else. If Louisville is crippled, those crews start here first and it’s a much tougher task because of the density of trees.
I’m not wishing ice on anyone, but if it’s going to happen, it’s better not to hit Louisville and slow down the power returning every where else.
Him
You both need to learn about prepositions. Don’t throw stones!! 🙂
Not that I want to see anyone receive ice out of this, but I am hoping for a southern shift as well!
TWC has been showing icing problems in Mississippi,Alabama,Tn..freezing rain down there, I havent heard of any snowfall reports yet..
Thank you for solidifying the point I was trying to make, as well as for pointing out my grammatical error. 🙂
http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=EVV&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis
Check out how sharp the cloud line is. It’s beautiful watching the warm air over-ride this freezing airmass. An awesome sight.
3 in Lexington again this morning.
I’ll trade you, your snow for my freezing rain/sleet/snow,muddy yard, down trees and powerlines…:(
I hope you’re joking.. Seriously. Because if not, you are the one looking pretty dumb. Or maybe you’re just 13 years old and don’t know squat about observing nature.
I’ll 3rd that motion!!! ..MOTION EXCEPTED…SOMEONE TELL THE GFS AND NAM THE RULING….:)
Somebody earlier mentioned how CNN & TWC were coming to Louisville to broadcast during the winter storm! I just found a link for the interview with CNN about being here in Louisville:
http://www.wlky.com/video/26142411/detail.html
oops…been a long day…i mean ACCEPTED…not EXCEPTED…sheww
yeah, animals know whats coming better than anyone…
I just heard that Laurel Co has already called off school for tomorrow.
Hey guys, So I have a couple questions. Im in Berea (southern madison co) Do you think we will change over to all rain here? If so, will the rain freeze on contact due to the snow and ice on the ground already? I have 2 small children and no alternate source of heat 🙁 What am I looking at down here, at this point?
No need to call anyone an idiot, if you knew anything you can tell alot by the way animals are acting. When squirrels are active esp. if they are after food that means they no that something is on the way and it isn’t good. Heck you can even tell the weather is going to change by watching a dog or cat,if they are acting kinda of weird or eating more than normal, that means there is a big change in weather on the way
The NAM is usually best inside of 36 hours, but like Rolo, I think it’s spitting out too much QPF. I’d side more with the GFS this time around.
Winterstorm warnings have dropped farther into northern tn. now…and also winter weather adv. include northern Ga. where sleet and freezing rain is headed into west ga. now…
Western KY is already at or above freezing. Man, this storm is going to be tricky down there. I didn’t expect it to get this warm here today either, for that matter.
adding to this post…I just talked with Brian Goode at Wave3 in Louisville & he said he’s been on & off the phone all day with TWC & says they are already in Louisville & will begin broadcasting this evening! So, I guess that will be cool to be in the national spotlight tonight/tomorrow. I will be watching to see where exactly they set up camp, considering one side of the county could get ICE and the other mostly SNOW. This will be crazy to see how this all sets up and plays out.
Tim wrote:
Winterstorm warnings have dropped farther into northern tn. now…and also winter weather adv. include northern Ga. where sleet and freezing rain is headed into west ga. now…
Maybe thats a good thing for us Tim down here in Bell and Knox?
at 26 degrees it feels downright WARM in Lexington!
FFF (Fearless Frank Faulkner) was the met who coined the infamous “dusting” comment from 98.
The infamously ironic words that got pegged to ALL mets during that time: “Just a dusting, just a dusting.”
I never heard from FFF after that forecast…
It’s 26 degrees here in Corbin. It’s supposed to warm above freezing overnight. Anyone have a guess on when it will change to plain rain?
HOLY COW !!! THIS IS WHAT NWS IN MORRISTOWN IS NOW..SAYING FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING SOUTHERN KY…3-5″ OF SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER
moderated x 4
Will the fact that theres still snow and ice on the ground throughout the state, influence the NAM or the GFS totals at all?
Tonight: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain and sleet. Low around 27. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible
This is for counties right over the border from me into Tennessee..
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010
…A WINTRY MIX OF ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING…
.A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
TONIGHT…GENERATING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION.
WITH VERY COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE…THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT…THE WINTRY MIX WILL SLOWLY CHANGE TO RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.
TNZ012>014-035>038-160245-
/O.UPG.KMRX.WW.Y.0026.101216T0000Z-101216T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KMRX.WS.W.0007.101216T0000Z-101216T1700Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ONEIDA…LA FOLLETTE…TAZEWELL…
WARTBURG…CLINTON…MAYNARDVILLE…RUTLEDGE
138 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST THURSDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION…WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING: PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AS LIGHT
SNOW…AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN…AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
THEN CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
* ACCUMULATIONS: ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION…LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. ALSO…THERE IS A THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED
TREES IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN.
I do know that Jim Caldwell said on facebook he might be bringing the snow line down farther south. Maybe this is why. Now if those counties are expecting that much why wouldnt it here?
Tonight: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain and sleet. Low around 27. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
……….
FORECAST FOR JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN CLAIBORNE CO.
Wave 3 forecast a high today of 30 At 14:05 the temp. is 24.Although I know the ground temp has nothing to do with the atmosphere temp. I hope beyond hope that the maj. of this storm stays snow or at least sleet.
Wish I knew enough to answer your question, but hopefully someone will see this and answer since you have 2 little ones to keep safe and warm.
Thanks for the feedback! 🙂
Brandon…check this out the point/click forecast for Harrogate, just thru the tunnel..:)
This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. South wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1am, then snow between 1am and 4am, then freezing rain and sleet after 4am. Low around 25. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Thursday: Freezing rain and sleet before 10am, then rain. High near 41. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
thats a total fo 5-7″ of sleet/snow…wow!!
Hey….I resemble that remark!
Okay, so I’m confused. I’m in Campbellsville, KY.. is it saying just rain here in taylor county? Doesn’t look like it’s in the pink? Sorry guys, I don’t know how to read the maps. 🙂
I’ve noticed some people on here are like jealous children, if there town is not included in the heavist snow bands. They believe Chris until they see something they don’t like. 🙂
MODERATION x4 here as well !!
I am actually impressed with how WAVE3 in Louisville is handling the forecasting. They now have anywhere north of I-64 in line to receive 2″-6″ of snow/sleet and .1″ of ICE! With up to 2″ of snow possible south of that line and up to .6″ of ICE with locally higher amounts. I think they’re paying more attention to the NAM than the GFS at this point. Although, from the point on they, like Chris and everyone else will be in the NOWcast mode.
lets try it again…moderation city today..lol…
Brandon…here is point/click forecast for Harrogate Tn. just thru the tunnel..:)
This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. South wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1am, then snow between 1am and 4am, then freezing rain and sleet after 4am. Low around 25. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Thursday: Freezing rain and sleet before 10am, then rain. High near 41. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
All I could find for Tenn was 1-4 inches. Did they just do a new update?
What do you think about the Carter County/Ashland area?
lets try it again..if not moderation again…
brandon…harrogate just thru the tunnel point/click forecast is for 5-7″ of snow/sleet with freezing rain also…WOW
now lets see how coordinated the jkl and morristown nws offices are ..tic-toc..tic-toc…
SERIOUSLY??????????????? Dang. Be nice this system started being more of a snow than ice for us. Didnt they say this thing was moving farther south now?
To my untrained eye, it appears to be further south on radar. I’m not a professional so don’t quote me on that. 😉
I’m watching for the Greenup Co/Ashland area, and on both our parts looking at the maps he posted, it’s looking like a 4-8″ range of snow.
Well, I was out at lunch, and the temp was holding pretty steady at 28 degrees. But our local weather said our forecast for today was sunshine and 35…courtesy of TWC. I am sorry, but I just don’t put much faith in that particular weather entity, as it is cloudy, has been for all but very early this morning, and temp is still below freezing, at least where I am at….
I’m sorry, Robbie…I misread…I guess this storm evolving into worse than what once thought is getting to everyone, esp. me…lol..like I said, if ice is gonna be anywhere,Nelson Co/Bardstown is the “Drop Zone”, as noted from many storms past!
Friends???! 😉
That is a sure sign that something is on the way
Had Subway for lunch. It was bad. Even at it’s worst, it was still better than rolo’s best. Thank you Subway for showing me insight inspite of your horrible sub.
FIRST!
shoot…to slow
Howard, did the mail run on time today?
26 here in Corbin Coffeelady
Hey, I am just back(by about 1/2 hr.) from Wal-Mart in Bardstown, and as I came out of the lot, I saw what looked to be a SAT truck perched above the hill there around the BG/150/245 intersection…I slowed to look, but it was a madhouse in the parking lot, so I had to skeedaddle my butt before my car insurance rates decided to take a hike..lol!:)
Morristown has updated the bordering VA counties snow totals to 3-6 inches in the warning details. Still the same with ice totals though from the beginning at 1/4 inch.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ001&warncounty=VAC105&firewxzone=VAZ600&local_place1=Pennington+Gap+VA&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning
Thats awesome. I hope we get it here only being 3 miles form this. lol
I am just enjoying reading all the comments….and wondering what is going to happen. If it were a perfect world, then we would all get snow and chase the ice far far away….but…since it is not, I guess we will see what happens, and take what we get. Everyone just PLEASE be careful, and do NOT take this storm lightly, wherever you are.
I would not even dare to pay attention to the TWC, they’re crap!
here is the forecast for Winfield,TN…5 miles south of McCreary County,KY
Tonight: Snow likely before 10pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 10pm and 1am, then freezing rain and sleet after 1am. Low around 27. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Temps over here in swva are running about what was forecasted (actually Morristown dropped the forecasted lows some from yesterday). Some of the higher elevations have recorded temps a little higher than some of the valley locations already, I guess a sign of the warmer air trying to move in alot.
Quick question. I know Morristown was quick to issue warnings for this last storm.. Just wondering if you know how accurate they were with their predictions.
Sorry, today’s “forecasted highs” I meant instead of lows.
18Z NAM still goes BAM!! Sorry, couldn’t help it. That’s just fun to say.
It came at 2:37. The mailman said that he was sorry he was late the day before. I received 2 Christmas cards and some bills.
Please post link. 🙂 and i think it is fun to say too 🙂
I think it pretty much verified. The counties they have under warnings on the Cumberland Plateau all recieved over 4″…so they did pretty good.
Wxman, is the 18z one of the so called throw away runs?
Amazing how Tenn is forcasting more snow than southern KY. lol. weird.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_018m.gif
It is the least reliable run out of the 4 daily runs, yes. But it’s not always garbage. I just get too worked up sometimes. 🙂
Looks like southern KY does see rain tomorrow, and north of I 64 stays below freezing all day. So definitely a mixed bag of precip. is headed this way.
Update will be out soon.
Thanks Wxman,what a site.I appreciate all your thoughts and post.
Thanks for your reply! I think we will see totals change for Southeast Ky with the next update.
You can keep the ice!! I had my share in 2003. No electric for a week or more. Yuck!!!
Holly Cow!!! That just moved me to the 6 to 8 snowfall!!!!
Ok, this is insane.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p48_048l.gif
so very consistent.
If the LMK met MJ check on here later, congrats on writing some of LMK’s forecast discussion. 🙂
uisng the garcia method some totals of 8-10 inches could be realized if the precipitation stays all snow. 12z euor slightly colder than 00z run.
at least wqe in S/SE dont have to worry bout majior icing. warm air going win out sooner than i thought. rain takes over early,early morning ours tonite.
Hey Wxman, NWS has anderson county getting .4 to .8 inches of ice on top of 3 inches of snow.
Home of Fearless Frank’s Five day Forecast.
This is just 3 miles away from me in Harrogate, TN…
This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. South wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1am, then snow between 1am and 4am, then freezing rain and sleet after 4am. Low around 25. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Thursday: Freezing rain and sleet before 10am, then rain. High near 41. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Thats a total fo 5-7″ of sleet/snow…
James Spann weather update
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zU_aAUmdfV8&feature=player_embedded#!
showing the ice in Alabama and what could be headed here
TWC is in Louisville…they’ll be there live in a few min…not a good sign.
What about Johnson County?? Anyone with any specifics about the timing and expected precip. amounts???
TWC is in lousville right now. Watching it right now
It’s only a bad sign if they send Cantore! 😉
Jackson as a interesting update.
” FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-64
AND NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80…GENERALLY HIGHER
SNOWFALL AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING…WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ICE EXPECTED”.
Well I’m ready..got propane filled for the camper (if electric goes out) groceries all stocked up, even rented some movies. And of course got my house all cleaned since it looks like we will be stuck in for a day or two (I hate being stuck in a dirty house!) Bring it on…..
Btw: I hate when they predict 4-8 inches of snow there’s a big difference in 4 and 8 in. I can still get out if we get 4..8 in. very doubtful…
Alot of the moisture in Tenn is switching back over to mix and snow on radar.
lmk office just upped ice totals in their new afd and hardin county forecast is below, now saying half inch of ice tonite alone, looks like about .75 inches of ice in north central ky according to them and now they are saying power outages are a concern!!!
Tonight…Not as cold. Periods of snow or sleet or freezing rain…then periods of freezing rain after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 2 inches. Ice accumulation around one half of an inch. Near steady temperature around 30. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Thursday…Periods of rain and light freezing rain through mid morning…then chance of light snow and rain in the afternoon. No snow accumulation. Ice accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
todays song is
much to young to feel this damn old by GARTH.
today word/phrase is
UNDERTHEBLEACHERSBYSEEMOREBUTTS.
update on generator i got cheap yesterday, found out it was a former girlfriends husbands and I return it.
told him i was approached with it and thought it look like his so i bought it. yea he gave me my money back and yes I charged him 100 extra.lol
hey its a cut throat world.
un
Keyboard cat does it purfectly
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IcGvBE5xfg
But yet in Tenn they are giving more?
can we get any observation out west is it hitting the ground out ur way WZMAN anyone.
WXMAN, what do you see for manchster (clay co.)? got any numbers for snow, ice? thanks..
Wonder when Chris will put up his “last call” map? from what I just it read, does it now mean Morehead not so much snow, but much more ice?!
sleet snow mix here in London 26*
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