Good Wednesday everyone. A hard hitting and fast moving winter storm will blast the state with significant amounts of snow and ice tonight into Thursday. The blog continues in WINTER STORM ALERT mode with updates coming fast and furious through the event.

Let’s get to a breakdown of how things stand as of right now…

– Low pressure will work eastward across Tennessee and throw plentiful moisture northward across the state tonight into Thursday.

– Snow and ice will break out in western Kentucky late this afternoon into the early evening hours then rapidly overspread the entire state by the wee hours of Thursday morning.

– This will be a fast moving shield of precipitation that should only last 12 to, perhaps,18 hours in any one spot. Even though it will be moving fast… there is a tremendous amount of lift associated with this storm meaning heavy precipitation is likely.

– Here is a map of my current thoughts on who gets what and how much…



Let’s start north and work south…

– Northern and northeastern Kentucky will see mainly an all snow event with accumulations of 3″-6″ likely. Locally higher amounts can’t be ruled out in the east. There is a small chance for some sleet or freezing rain entering the picture at some point before the snow shuts off.

– Just to the south of the all snow band will be an area that should get in on a period of very heavy snow to start before switching over to freezing rain that would then continue for the rest of the storm. Exactly when this change happens will determine how much snow or ice this area gets. Right now… anywhere from 1-4″ of snow may fall before the switch to ice which should then add up to .25″ or so. If the snow does not last long… then this region may see closer to .50″ of ice. I am concerned for this region for the fact it may get some heavy snow to accumulate… it would then be coated in ice. That would make for a lot of weight on power lines and trees if that is the case.

– Farther south… this region may also start out as a period of snow that would have a much quicker transition to Freezing Rain. Up to an inch of snow would be possible before the change. Precipitation totals in general will be higher in this area leading to potential ice accumulations of up to a half inch. Locally higher amounts will be possible before much of this ends as plain rain as temps go just above freezing. This region should also be on guard for POSSIBLE power problems.

– Extreme western Kentucky will see the action start as a mix of snow and ice then change to a period of light rain before ending. Precipitation amounts in this part of the state will not be as high as the areas we outlined above.

The GFS and NAM are in general agreement for the most part. The NAM is colder and wetter than the GFS leading to more snow and ice accumulations. The GFS has been trending toward the wetter NAM solution for a few runs now. In terms of temps… The NAM has a higher resolution which usually allows it to handle low level cold air better than the GFS. I think it is doing just that right now as it matches what I have been saying for days… you simply cannot scour out arctic air like the models had been showing in the past few days.

Here is what both models look like…






A few parting comments…

– This is not going to be on par with the Ice Storms of 2009 and 2003 as those were historic storms that produced prolonged periods of freezing rain. This storm will be fast moving but will pack a serious punch and cause a lot of problems.

– I am more confident of the snow areas than anywhere else on the forecast map I have out. The rest of the region is dependent on when changes in precipitation type will take place. Either way… significant snow and ice is in the cards and its just a matter of how much of each will fall where you live.

– Looking down the road a bit… more snow chances will be likely from later in the weekend into much of Christmas week. We will watch a series of systems diving in from the northwest during this time. The upcoming weekend looks cold with the threat for single digits again by Sunday morning in some areas.

– Speaking of cold… this morning’s temps will be bitterly cold in many areas with some of the first sub zero readings of the winter expected for some. Track the lows here…

Low Temps


Ok… thats all you guys get for now as I will have many updates on our winter storm throughout the day so be sure to check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.