Good evening one more time. I wasn’t going to post until later at my normal time… but the new run of the NAM deserves a new update as it shows a very quick and hard hitting winter storm for much of Kentucky. This comes in the form of significant snow and ice accumulations.
Take a look at what the model is showing us…
That is ugly… especially the ice part of that as it would create some MAJOR problems for much of central and southeastern Kentucky. The model is spitting out more than a half inch of ice! WOW!!
Another thing to keep in mind is some of the areas that get in on significant icing may start out with a period of moderate to heavy snows. If you put snow on power lines then coat it with ice… then some issues with power would arise. I’m not saying that will happen… but it is certainly a possibility.
Northern and northeastern Kentucky would be mostly snow and the model is showing more than 6″ in many areas.
I will have another update later tonight. Take care.
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Nam says BAM!
I say BOOOOM
Gosh Pikeville looks like more Ice then snow much more.
Sooo…Just how accurate are these models this far out???
Ryan what do you think we are in for snow and Ice?
Looks like around a quarter inch here in Paintsville. That’s enough to cause major problems out in the county. Not good.
Gag. Looks like a flat-out mess.
Don’t post much any more but, ICE…PLEASE PLEASE SAY IT ISN’T SO!!!!
It’s really not that far out now.
This is horrible. The last thing Louisville needs is another terrible ice storm. The city was crippled for three days.
I guess this map ends any thought the storm was moving further south. I am officially worried.
well, i guess i’ll go buy a kerosene heater tomorrow for back up heat, because the new NAM ice accumulation looks rather frightening for east and s.e. ky…I sure hope ITS WRONG
holy cow!!!
Good Luck Tim. I bought the last one they had at Walmart in Somerset. And it was a mess there.
So your saying they are pretty accurate? Sorry for those of you in the ice:( But I’m getting pretty stoked. I am in very little to no ice and 6-8in. of snow:)
4 seasons farm supply in Barbourville got a truck load in today..I better get one while i can..
I dont care about this ice storm in Southern KY. Im more worried about this HUGE snow storm coming this weekend. Be nice if we could have updates for both.
I’ve got a terrible feeling in the pit of my stomach about this ice storm. I’ll be buying some provisions tomorrow for sure, and making plans on what my family will need to do in case we lose power.
Things could look very scary outside in about 18 hours or so the way this is sounding….
yeah…I’d get down there first thing tomorrow morning.
well CHRIS BAILEY the NAM is your backyard buddy tonight…ashland is the sweet spot as far as snow totals…
Let’s get through this one first.
Something tells me.. that snow will drop down a little, and so will where the ice is. Meaning more snow for central ky..at least a little bit more.
🙂
So here’s my question…is this really as bad as everyone is making it sound or are we all just remembering past storms and getting worked up about what “could” be?
Well, we are under 24 hours from the onset, so as far as track and amount of precipitation, there isn’t much room for error now.
The thing now is temps; the models could miss by just 2 degrees and the whole scenario would be different. Missing a high of 88 in the summer by 2 degrees is a whole lot different from missing a December high of 33 by 2 degrees.
Short answer: Pretty accurate except for temps, which are critical.
I hope its not rolo’s goat talking to you…LoL… speaking of where is rolo this evening…lol
Any time there is a good chance of getting 0.25″ or more of Frz Rain….you should be real worried.
Don’t forget to stock up on bottled water. The 2009 storm knocked out power to the water pumping stations in some areas and some places didn’t get full water pressure back for a week. Charcoal is another handy thing. We had no power but we had a grill and were able to cook and have hot coffee. Just trying to prepare for the worst and hope to help somebody out there. Everybody be careful and stay safe!
Thank you!! I love this blog but know nothing about models and that stuff! I get prepared for a big one tomorrow!!Think positive all snow no ice.
I was afraid of that. =)
Well, it woukd seem that we are about to get invaded from the southwest by an ugly storm…all I can say is make sure you are ready. I know I sound like a broken record, but, this thing really worries me. It sounds like ti is going to be a real hum dinger….
TIM: Make sure you go get your heater early, or you might not get one. There was nearly a fight tonight at Speedway over kerosene; everyone showed up at the same time and acted like a bunch of children…I bought some for someone, but am still not sure who….(I did get paid back for it by the store clerks, though.) 😉 Hang on…its gonna be an interesting ride….
My mail usually comes around 2:30 everyday. I stand by the front door and wait for the mailman about that time. Today I waited until almost 2:45. I asked the mailman if something was wrong and he said that there wasn’t.
I am not the weather expert as most of you guys and the maps do not make sense to me but talk to me like a first grader-when is all this going to start-I live in London but have a very important appt in somerset at 5 Thursday afternoon–should I plan to cancel? Thanks everyone!
He’s shooting dice up at BlueHole…lol
Keep us updated for our BIG SNOW coming this weekend that might make this last one sick. 🙂
Ugh, I do NOT want this ice! I have my last final on Thursday, and I really want to be able to get home Thursday afternoon. Is it possible, or does it look like there will be too much ice?
Any opinions?
yes, cancel immediately. stay at home, board up the windows, barricade yourself in a small room stockpiled with canned goods and ammunition.
Dang, did your legs get tired or do you have a place where you can sit while you wait?
Once again everyone…it all depends on which model spits out what! I still say this will be more snow than what most are thinking. Look at this map:
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_SNOWDEPTH_39HR.gif
It is 9 degrees in Middlesboro with 6 inches of snow on the ground.
^^ not funny ^^
I think they should have all the “main roads” cleared of any snow or ice by then. But if your travel includes some shaded side roads I might consider a reschedule. But this is not suppose to hit until late wednesday night…I’d just keep an eye out for the changing conditions.
WOW!! I guess tomorrow we will be stocking up the RV just in case we have to live in it for a few days. Sounds like it’s going to be a wet heavy snow. Where i live our power went out over this weekends snow we only got about 2-3 inches. Now we are in the 6-8 in. range we could be out for days!
I hope the power does not go out.
Now that’s what I’m talking about!! That has me in the 8-10in. range..Wooohooo!!
Yes, but the models have issues with the warm air eroding the artic air too quicky and don’t account for the snow pack we have. So we can move the freezing rain and snow band south a little bit and put Lexington in the 6 to 8 in snows. Is that not correct?
And for goodness sake everyone please rember that you can not cook on a charcoal grill inside. Every ice storm I hear about some fools cooking like that and dying from carbon monoxide poisioning.
I think the line between alot of snow and alot of ice will be right down the center of pike county…
Right where we live,I am always the line on the line.
CB, can I assume then that this statement that you posted with apparent confidence is now not so confident?
“I know many people are asking if this is going to be as bad as the Ice storm of 2009 or 2003 and the short answer is no.”
Pretty emphatic 🙂 Perhaps the system is too dynamic for this…..?
Not being a smart-aleck, but seems the sub 2003 and 2009 ice event perspective has changed.
Ice blows, unless in a Pepsi.
hey tim? whats this storm looking like for knox county? some people are saying rain, some snow, some ice..need some help haha.
i hate to go stock up for this. i am pretty gun shy from the last icing.
so all you folks that are out buying the bread, milk, and eggs, please invite me over for some french toast
Well so much for my kids going to school this WEEK.
flippin around the tube…”the voice of reason”…showed southern ky. hitting 50*!!! with rain on thursday…I sure wish Bailey would comment on that one!!
Why in the world do they keep him around? He’s wrong more than not.
Seriously?…WOW
even wymt had us out of the rain event..with the new map out. this is gonna be a ice storm the more i look at it..not good.
Man Chris, no offense but if you have bust a forecast I sure hope it’s this one!
Feel free to come over. French toast, steaks, beer, bourbon, I am set. If I run out I’m in walking distance of Krogers. 🙂
folks this looks very bad for the bluegrass and eastern ky. start prep work now!!!
So does this mean we’ll get blasted with like 6″ of snow in NE Louisville near the Oldham county line?
I’m REALLY NOT liking that forcast! jessamine county is right in the big mess of it all. Some of our roads are STILL bad…..i’m really starting to look forward to summer again lol.
Uncool-To try to be cool, and fail and be an embarrassment to people nearby, or end up looking like a right pillock.
buzzard by any chance???
I thought the NAM and GFS were not very trustworthy. Someone posted in an earlier post that the Euro appeared to be nailing storms this winter. Has anyone seen any details from it?
I just watched the video on Wave 3’s blog. They’re saying it will probably be ice, but it shouldn’t cause a lot of problems, mainly it will be hard to walk, but the salt will work well on the roadways. Anytime you have very much freezing rain at all, it’s going to cause problems. Not only with traffic, but power outages. It may be a fast acting storm, but I don’t think they’re taking it seriously.
I am The dummy but who is the voice of reason you keep talking about is it safe to say not wsaz but another one in my viewing area lol?
Wonder how much CB’s forcast will change with the new models that have come out?
i watched wtvq and they said about one tenth of an inch of ice. can you say bury your head in the sand? or snow….
how much of the forcasted precip forcasted from the models actually fall. if the models prdict .5 inch of ice, can we assume that’s what gonna fall, or is often more or less??? i’m not weather savy, so someone please clarify this for me..thanks..:P
GOOD GRIEF CB SAYS: GFS now looks like NAM. Major snow and ice coming folks!
0z GFS shows Se Ky. getting hammered.
Seems NAM and GFS are both showing a storm. Has anyone seen the Euro or any other models?
Whiteout with what Ice or snow? Will you post the link if you don’t mind please.
I’ve been snowed in this week and missed work yesterday and today. I live on top of a hill, and it’s bad! (just north of Hazard). PLEASE no ice!!
Does the Euro or any other model show anything different?
so when does Chris usually do his evening update?
Nah…said he was going down to crawfish for a while then headed over to bluehole.
I wish I could retire early. I’d head south, waayyy south. 🙂
He works in Lexington.
So am I correct in interpreting those maps to mean that Lexington would get a hlf inch of ice on top of 2 or 3 inches of snow? Sounds bad to me.
I still want to know about the weekend storm for southern ky.
In Daytona Beach this morning 24 degrees 33 in Miami.It showed Ice hanging from the oranges.
Me too..Maybe CB will talk some about it on his next update. We can hope anyway..
I know…the EURO was SPOT On for the last storm. Where is any mention of it now?
CB needs to get in his usually stable groove, since one post he says it will not be as bad as 2003 or 2009 and then appears to contradict that. I appreciate the dynamics but sheesh! 😉 🙂
BTW, it seems that BM’s current weather map seems more inline for the orientation and gradient of this type of evil mixed event. Still say that for ice, CB’s is too diagonal. Big issue though is actual ice totals, none the less.
Donde esta el EURO? Does anyone have access to the EURO’s insight?
We must be neighbors! No, I don’t see us getting 6″. Ice is our concern. .5-.75 maybe for our area. Our local mets are way downplaying this one. WLKY had us with dusting-2 inches snow up to .25 ice.
Pillock- Look it up!
Just got this new email:
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-MARTIN-
PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.FLEMINGSBURG.MOUNT STERLING.
OWINGSVILLE.MOREHEAD.IRVINE.STANTON.FRENCHBURG.
SANDY HOOK.WEST LIBERTY.PAINTSVILLE.CAMPTON.
SALYERSVILLE.PRESTONSBURG.BEATTYVILLE.JACKSON.HINDMAN.
INEZ.PIKEVILLE
1113 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2010
.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY.
* SNOW WILL DEVELOP WED NIGHT. IT WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN & SLEET IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HRS
& ON THUR MORNING.
* MOST LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW & AT LEAST
MINOR ICING FROM THIS EVENT. AT LEAST ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW
& ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM WED NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS
STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.& HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR ICE ARE A POSSIBILITY.
Umm Usually around 12:30ish.
That what I was asking I haven’t heard anyone mention anything other than the NAM and GFS. I was just wondering if other models were showing the same thing. Probably shouldn’t worry about a model and just listen to what Chris says anyway. I told everyone today that we should get ready for a possible ice storm they looked at me like I had a third eye. Seems the local mets are seeing that much danger in the storm.
8 degrees now in Middlesboro. This is the coldest it has been in years here!
It was 0 degrees in Owingsville this morning when my hubby went to work at 7am.
The Lows for tonight was only suppose to be 13… I think they missed it. lol
not really.
my isentropic analysis tonight which determines the region for best lift shows the heaviest precipitation from e-town to jackson with .5-.75. I think the 32 line max Thursday afternoon will be in the same region. This means regions just north of this such as the counties just south of I-64 from lou to lex see the most ice of around 1/2 inch and may not hit 32*.
When I lived in Florida they use to spray the Orange crop with water before big freezes to protect the fruit. As water freezes, it warms up and keeps the fruit from freezing.
dang i am about to go crazy!! so i am at my parents on xmas break…but have a place in covington that i could go back to if they get a bigtimesnow…arnt options great 😀
Is that little radar blip over Jackson Tenn the monster we have been fearing? Won’t it need to grow up some? Is it the size it needs to be to create the havoc we are discussing?
In the 10 years we had been going to Daytona and all over the state really we have covered it. I didnt know that,well thanks learn something new everyday.
Wonder when CB will update? I want to see it but really need to go to bed.
7 Degrees and dropping kinda fast!
I don’t know snowbird, but I was wanting him to post before I go to bed as well. I am real curious if there are any changes at all the forecast, whether it be good or bad
me too. i need to be all rested and junk for my more than likely one day of work this week. but i wanna seeeeee!!!
Middlesboro…Anybody else have temps from your town?
2 degrees here in west Franklin County
that is certainly not it
7 degrees here in London. No rest for my heatpump! LOL
Not sure but my dog that has about 20 pounds of fur on him is in my house right now. He usually never gets cold only comes in if it gets over 80 outside. Usually the colder the better for him. I take it as a sign it’s pretty darn cold. LOL
he will update between 1 or 1:30
Working on a new updtate that will be out within an hour.
Hey I’m in Midland! It sure has been nasty in Bath County this yr!
Thanks Chris
you da man CB!!!
Thanks Chris! You are the Man!
YYYYEEEEAAAAHHHH!!! Thanks Chris!!
Chris,
Any idea about what time everything is going to change to rain Thursday for London, KY area?
LOL! My husband just said I was like a heroin addict waiting on my dealer to show up. I can’t help it I LOVE SNOW!! My poor kids have NEVER seen a GOOD SNOW!! I just hope we don’t get any ice-not very good for kids to sleigh ride in.
Hey! No kidding. If it keeps this up the kids will never get out for summer! I bet I know you. Do you know Chip Hart?
I’d like to be able to get back to work after all the snow we’ve had in S.E. Kentucky in the past few days.
Yeah, I can understand that, if only it wouldn’t stick to the roads then it would be perfect. I hate being stuck. I feel for you guys. We didn’t get that much..about 2-3 in.
temps already a bust for tonight, low where i am was suppose to be 10 and currently already 5 degrees, the models arent recognizing the snowpack, wondering if that could have anything to do with the colder temps for tomorrow night and thursday
It is 6* here in Hustonville… Burrrrr
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