Good Thursday to one and all. Much colder air has moved into the commonwealth and will stick around as we roll toward the weekend. While that is a shock to the system after the last few days, some of the models bring a bigger shock next week. Will we get in on a taste of wintry weather?
Let’s start with where we are today and work forward.
Many areas will see temps stay in the mid and upper 40s this afternoon on a gusty northwesterly wind. That will set us up for a very cold night with readings in the middle 20s by Friday morning.
Friday will offer more of the same with highs in the upper 40s and lows hitting the upper 20s by Saturday morning.
Our weekend weather looks pretty darn good with temps in the 50s and lows in the 30s. We will have rather breezy weather with a mix of sun and clouds.
This is when things look rather interesting on the latest models. Many of them are taking a turn for the wintry from late Tuesday into the middle and end of the week. The GFS has been leading the wintry charge and the overnight run went a little crazy…
And when I say a little crazy.. I mean a little crazy. For entertainment purposes only, here’s the snowfall map from that run…
The odds of that happening aren’t very high, but it’s only 5 days out and the model has shown a similar system on more than one occasion.
Recent runs of the European have shown some type of wintry system impacting our region during the same time and the overnight run also went crazy with snow…
In addition to the snow threat… Both models are also giving us some super cold temps for the middle and end of next week. Heck… The European Model brings another snow threat from the southwest next weekend.
Again… let’s take it slow and see how this plays out. While the odds of us seeing some wintry weather next week are increasing, the above model runs are probably way overdone.
It should be noted that wild model swings are to be expected in the coming days. The Pacific Ocean has a ton going on and the downstream impact from that will give the models fits in trying to figure it all out.
Updates as needed today. Have a good one and take care.
*Trying not to get my hopes up, but it’s hard..
I wouldn’t say it was crazy what the models were showing. It was a couple of inches at best for most of us. Only the mountains in Eastern Kentucky would get anything to be excited about.
True…But it’s not even the middle of November
I live in Bowling Green. Looks like we could be the ones to miss out on the snow as usual here in SCKY. I do remember November 13, 1998. A cold front came through that morning. By midday temperatures had plunged and snow began to fall. We had nearly 2 inches by 3pm! It was impressive for so early in November! I remember a lot of other systems around the 15th of November that have had a fair amount of cold and snow on the backside of the low. I would not be surprised AT ALL if this scenario plays out. It’s been a while since this has happened in mid November.
Any accumulating snow in Mid-November is unusual.
There have only been five times Lexington has seen a two inch or greater snowfall before November 14th.
October 30, 1925
November 2, 1951
November 2, 1954
November 2, 1966
November 4, 1936
Nashville got just over 7 inches of snow from the same Nov 2, 1966 storm. Even northern Alabama (including Huntsville) had heavy snow. Fairly impressive for that far south in early Nov.
Reports mentioned that the leaves were still up. Thus, the snow brought down lots of tree limbs onto electric lines – thus widespread power outages.
Chris–when the models through out “super cold” is this record breaking cold.
The record lows for the middle of next week are in the mid teens! Are we talking that kind of cold?
So,because it might snow an inch or two in November means something? Yeah it means get ready for the other 5 or 6 “storms” that dump an inch here and there this winter.
If we get it or not, still something to have fun tracking the next few days.
It would be nice if we averaged out all snowfall for the 130 + years of climate history to predict a more accurate average snowfall for this region, rather than use the 1981-2000 BS.
I grew up in Central KY and thought that the old averages were closer to 20 inches a year. I just think its odd that you go from an average of 23″ at CVG to only 12″ in the Louisville-Lex areas. A foot of snow less within 70 miles of lattitude???
Anyway… I would be curious to know what the 130 year averages are compared to the last 20-30.
Before they used the 1980 – 2000 averages, I believe, if averaged all together those years the average would be around 18 inches per season.
As CB says, it is just an outlook, but nice to see the term “wintry” in a season besides- winter. That was so ironic seeing the term, “wintry” in winter so many times over the last two of them.
Welcome back BubbaG
Agreed, BubbaG
If you like to model watch i would say the trend to watch for is too see if the cold air keeps showing up on the models…Couple of days ago models had a stout SE ridge and now that has flipped…..Long ways out yet so we shall see…Anyways maybe this is the year the Pacific will be on our side and deliver the goods..Pacific has been throwing nothing but puke the last few winters..
first seen some nice snowfaLLS BEFORE and on T GIVING, as far as next week I see the ground getting white for many areas. cen.east/se ky 1-3 inches but folks remember the models had some overhaul down since last year so they could be spot on.
this first deal here will tell a lot of how models are going to handle the winter wqeather. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! WHERE ALL THE GANG AT!!!
Are you still watching General Hospital?
Just heard another meterologist say things could get interesting around here next week.
A good friend just texted that the Euro Ensembles is showing something also….You have the Euro,GFS operationals and now the Ensembles all showing something…This could be the real deal for someone..Hopefully Ky will get in on the action…
Thanks, Chris. Well, here we go again…time to start the winter weather crazy maze that the models give us every year about this time. I am like you , and think that they are likely way
overdone, but, it is getting close to the time when we should at least start seeing some snow flurries. However, IF it should decide to snow, I will not be griping too much 😉 In the meantime, going to enjoy today. Have a great Thursday everyone!
I usually don’t start posting until after Thanksgiving…..Well the talk of wintry weather in early Nov. will bring many of us back out. I will say that we are all very overdue for a normal winter. That does mean two or three storms that dump 1 – 2 inches with higher totals on the other side of the river….does not matter what river…..if you live on or near the river it always snow more on the other side Ha Ha…then we will have numerous clippers that dump another few 1 – 2 inches of snow. All equals out to around 10 to 12 inches of snow. Which is average for most of Kentucky. I will take that senerio over the past two winters…..
As for next week….Ibiwisi…it is way to early to get excited…
Super Typhoon Haiyan is going to strike the Phillipines today. Sustained winds of 190 m.p.h., gusts to 250 m.p.h. Likely to be the most powerful tropical cyclone to ever make landfall.
That’s just completely mind boggling and off the charts. Imagine something like that hitting the Atlantic of Gulf coast evacuation would extend at the very least 100 miles if not more inland.
Or not of my bad
If this typhoon curves north/west look out for some very cold temps here in about 7-10 days.
Wow, that storm really intensified over the last 24 hours!
This sends chills down the spine. Stronger winds at the moment than even Hurricanes Andrew, Camille, Gilbert, Mitch.
At least the more populated areas including Manila will avoid a direct hit. But moderate loss of life sadly seems unavoidable 🙁 . Need to keep the Phillipines in our thoughts and prayers.
60 foot storm surge expected. Holy cow.
I would love to see some snow.Hi Rolo and BubbaG!!!!!
Latest GFS does still look good however still a week away the models will be flip flopping the rest of the week into the weekend. By Monday there should be some credibility into what the models are thinking. I will say as of now it’s looking like a mid-Atlantic storm.
The blog has awaken, many other weather outlets are talking snow for next week, let the fun begin 🙂
This is the first shot at wintry weather now, but in my opinion, I think this will end up being a few flurries with the snow staying north of river in Indiana.
I will stay positive and Hope for better snow luck this year, It is November so any snow at all this time of year is a bonus in my book!
Wow, I hope some of that crosses over into Virginia! It’s time to get ready to get ready!
Good to see Rolo and Bubba back on the blog, Chris twitter feed very interesting with that model off the charts in snow totals, are we having fun yet! 🙂
Has anyone looked at the Euro snow totals…Gives Eastern Ky anywhere between 12-20 inches…lol
Well things are definitely looking interesting. You can follow the link on my name to my weather blog on facebook. I just started school at OU this fall with my major being Meteorology. Come and give it a look. Thanks!
Bienvenidos, Tyler! If you have posted here on KWC before, welcome anyway 😉 .
Good luck in your studies. Didn’t know Ohio University had a met program, cool. A few in our group are learning meteorology at Western Kentucky Univ (or have graduated). One WKU grad now works at NWS Mt Holly NJ near Philadelphia. IIRC, someone who posts here is or was in North Carolina State Univ’s weather program.
FWIW, I’m also a WKU grad (non-science major that never took meteorololgy but a weather nut nevertheless) after growing up in Tennessee. Recently married and now living in Nashville.
Super Typhoon Haiyan about to make landfall on phillipines island of Samar (1.8 million people). It has actually strengthened. 195 m.p.h. sustained winds. Central pressure estimated to be 858 mb, which would be an all time record. This is going to be a terrible global disaster.
Sunny and 46 in Lawreneburg as we approach sunset. My thermostat is set on 70. No heat running since 8:30 A.M. with the blinds open and full sunshine. I love this kind of day!
IBIWISI — Some models show 13.5″ inches for Lexington. I can take any two of the nine years I have lived in Richmond, add them together and not get 13.5″.
IBIWISI = I’ll believe it when I see it