Good Monday, folks. Let’s start with a BIG thank you to all our wonderful military veterans… thanks for all you’ve done for our great country! Mother nature is giving our vets a fine weather day, but the nice officially ends tonight. That’s when January pays a visit to the region with arctic cold and some snow.
Highs today will hit the 50s under partly sunny skies. Clouds and winds will both increase this afternoon as the arctic boundary draws closer from the north. This will dive in here overnight and bring a narrow of ribbon of rain ahead of it and a swath of light snow behind it.
Here’s a quick breakdown…
– A band of light to moderate snow will work in from north to south late tonight into early Tuesday. As the snow starts… temps will drop into the upper 20s and low 30s.
– The timing on this may cause a few issues with the morning commute. It’s possible to get a few slick spots to develop on area bridges and overpasses.
– Most of the snow that falls will melt, but some brief accumulations will be possible. That’s especially the case for grassy and elevated surfaces. Can someone squeeze out an inch of slush? It’s possible…
– Winds will be very gusty and may approach 30mph at times. This may create wind chills that dip into the teens at times.
– The light snow will quickly drop to our south by the afternoon. Keep an eye on Lake Michigan… we may see a plume of snow showers and flurries reaching parts of our region.
– Highs Tuesday will be in the low and mid 30s.
– Wednesday is another very cold day with lows in the high teens and low 20s. We should stay in the 30s during the afternoon.
Below normal temps will carry us through Thursday and Friday. Moisture may try to increase by Friday and that may throw some chilly showers our way.
That looks to be ahead of a big time storm system that develops across the plains and heads toward the Great Lakes by late weekend and early next week. This may have one heck of a temperature gradient to work with. Check out this temperature transition…
Heavy rain, thunderstorms and high winds will be possible ahead of this system. Behind it… a huge temp crash and the threat for some flakes may be noted.
Often when you get that type of a setup… it can get wet. Look at the rain numbers coming from the European Model for next weekend and early next week…
Interesting times ahead.
I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.
Rain not interesting to me I want snow sorry had to get that out
Dang. When you said a big system I got excited thinking you meant snow. But alas, seems to just be rain. 🙁
Thank you Chris. Everyone try to stay warm the next couple of days,
I had the same thought. “Interesting” to me this time of year means snow. Rain = who cares?
Love your forecasts, Chris! Great work!
Remember… Despite the mets best efforts, winter forecasting is a science that just isn’t ready for prime time. I am amazed at the accuracy of the forecasting in the other three seasons but as far as winter goes… Not so much…
I do appreciate everyone efforts. The mets against the winter is like an American League pitcher up against Araldus Chapman! At least go down swinging!
I know, I know… any reasonable manager would have pulled their pitcher and have a pinch hitter in to face Chapman…
When CB says to keep an eye on Lake Michigan for a plume of snow showers reaching our neck of the woods, that’s no snow job 😉 .
Years ago, The Weather Channel actually showed radar painting snow reaching all the way down to northern Alabama. Yes, Huntsville and Muscle Shoals (and thus likely Nashville, Louisville, etc) were getting lake effect snow all the way from Lake Michigan. Even if the snow at Huntsville was only a fraction of what it was in South Bend, that’s still amazing.
I also thought since you said things are going to get interesting you met snow also since it was in an update about snow. Boo on the rain. Bring on the Swath Monster!!!
Because snow forecasting is so bad and mostly underachieves, when I see a forecast of snow, I get the lowest number and cut it by half. So if were going to get 4-6 inches, my prediction is 2in. So I think were only getting half a coating of snow.
I like that rule of thumb. Truly, I can remember maybe five times in my life when a “storm” over-performed with snow. But I think I remember them all, seriously.
Yes, I remember an event where a strong Lake band (in the form of scattered but intense heavy snow squalls) from Lake Michigan persisted over our area. We had about 5 inches of snow from getting repeat heavy snow showers in the immediate area while areas five or 6 miles or west of my location only saw a dusting. This was in rural northeastern Nelson county, just west of the Anderson County line.
A deck duster in the morning would be cool this early in the year, we gotta start somewhere, I feel like some good stuff to come this winter snow lovers 😉
Don’t forget about me down here in east Tennessee gang…..I still like the snow as well…just in a location even more less likely to see it now than before in southern ky… 🙁
Blizzardtim, long time no hear. The wife and I were visiting my relatives in the Cleveland TN area near you a week ago. Thought of ya 😉 .
Hope you took in the beautiful fall colors in your area. If anything, they seemed a bit better than they were in Nashville and in south-central Kentucky.
Colors were awesome…Cleveland just 25 minutes away..hopefully I’ll get to see some snow down here!!
As CB just tweeted, Winter Weather Advisories are now out. Areas of KY along the Ohio River are affected including the towns of Maysville and Ashland. These advisories covering Kentucky have been issued by NWS offices in Wilmington OH and Charleston WV, but NWS Jackson KY may help much of east Kentucky join the party before long.
Meanwhile, much of the Deep South will have their growing seasons end the next few nights. Freeze Watches/Warnings now out for places like Birmingham, Shreveport, Dallas/Ft Worth.
NWS Jackson has now issued a WWW for most of its area of jurisdiction, exceptions include several KY counties on and near the TN line.
As always, thanks CB for keeping us informed!
And here comes the whining and complaining about the forcast . Chris is great, but some of his readers are tiresome wiyb the complaints. If it snowed a foot some of u would whine and say i want two feet.
Oh, I’d be plenty happy with a foot of snow! It’s been a long time .
We’re just snow starved. I remember years ago when it seemed common to get big snowstorms. Now the last 3-4 have been dismal winters with the exception of a powerful ice storm.
Nothing to do with CB – he is selling the product he has. He does a great job given the tools he has available. The science / modeling / math just isn’t there for winter forecasting.
Light snow in northern Illinios already, including Chicago. If flying to or through “Chi-town”, you might want to expect some delays 😉 .
Down to 48 in Indianapolis.
Still mostly 60s in KY and TN, for now anyway. This and the bright afternoon sunshine will make the overnight snow sticking a challenge. But as CB touched on, some areas will get a little measurable white on the ground before it melts.
Darn it, Illinois not Illinios! Need to remember to turn on spellcheck.
Don’t think I have dyslexia 🙂 .
NWS Louisville has now issued a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of its eastern area of jurisdiction, including Lexington and Richmond KY.
However, areas within NWS Jackson KY, NWS Wilmington OH and NWS Charleston WV have WWAs for most of their jurisdictions and thus will be most affected by the snow, as relatively little accumulation as there will be. It will be interesting to hear reports from east KY on how much snow they get.