Good Friday to one and all. A Winter Storm is taking aim on the state for the second half of the weekend into early next week and will deliver a bout of wicked wintry weather. This will be a three pronged blast with snow, arctic cold and gusty winds delivering a heck of a blast to the region.
Before getting to the winter storm… we do have the chance for some very light snows and flurries first thing this morning across the north. This shouldn’t be too big of a deal and you can track the flakes here…
That stuff will be in and out of here quickly this morning with partly sunny skies taking over for much of the day.
Now… let’s get into the specifics of the upcoming winter storm. Given all the variables coming together for a major bout of wintry weather… we will call this a winter storm because… well.. it is one.
All the models now agree on how this plays out and it is similar to the thoughts we have been throwing out for a few days.Here is the break it down…
– Low pressure will head into the northern Ohio Valley Saturday. This low will have a swath of rain on its southern flank that will increase from west to east by later in the day and evening. Much of Saturday looks to be dry with temps spiking into the lower and middle 40s.
– Rain moves in Saturday evening and does so with cold air racing into it from the west. The cold will catch the back of the rain changing it over to snow during the night. By Sunday morning… everyone has already made the switch to snow with temps down into the upper 20s to near 30. There is likely to be a period of moderate to heavy snow Sunday morning across central and eastern Kentucky as a stronger low forms to our east.
– We have to be on guard for a quick freeze up early Sunday as thermometers drop some 10-15 degrees in just an hour or two. Temps will fall all day Sunday and wind up into the teens by evening.
– As the snow shield exits the east by early Afternoon Sunday… backlash snows will swing in. There will be periods of moderate snow with some heavier bursts. This will carry us into Sunday night. Snow showers and squalls would then take over for Monday for the eastern half of the state.
– Winds will gust to 30mph or greater into early Monday. This will create blowing and even some drifting of snow for many areas.
– Arctic air will grip the region through the middle of the week. Highs Monday and Tuesday are likely to stay in the teens with lows that may approach 0.
– Wind chill readings will slip into the danger category as it will feel 0 to -10 for much of the time.
– Travel from Sunday into Monday is going to become very treacherous as the combination of snow and blowing snow can cause some big issues.
Here is my latest snow forecast…
I will continue to update the snow forecast over the next few days and make further changes as more data comes in. That said… I am pretty comfortable with the totals and placement I have on the map right now.
To illustrate the arctic cold part of the attack… take a look at the low temps from the GFS…
Looking down the road… I am already watching the potential for snow and Ice for Thursday and Friday. How is this early start to winter treating ya? ![]()
I will have more updates on the weekend winter storm through the day so be sure to check back. Have a great Friday and take care.
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yep, another storm possible next week for sure
A little confused here. is this now winter storm threat mode or not. The title could be a little misleading.
Just finished a video blog talking about the storm http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LEbi0o-Q_A&feature=youtu.be&a
Good to see my thoughts are pretty close in line with Chris. This going to be some brutal cold moving in for the beginning of next week. Also glad the models are finally all coming into agreement.
Is there a chance the totals might go up for the 2 to 4 area?
there is always a storm next week.lol
no joy IMO we be lucky to see 2 inxhes must lest 4 in these areas.
most of the moisture qwill be gone by the times it gets COLD enough to start sticking.
sorry but saturday will push 50 degrees in alot of areas in SE/E KY.
only snow we see will be northwest flow if it sets up. more common known as upslope.
Hey Rolo what is your guess in Se Ky around the Pikeville area and whats the song of the day????
Looks like we will start Christmas vacation a little early here in Bell Co. The only thing I worry about is the end of the school year is growing closer and closer to the beginning of next school year!
PIKEVILLE as of 640 am friday, id say 2-4. I will say this the next model runs MIGHT chane the outlook ALOT.
Doesn’t matterif we getalot of snow or not, it is still going to be a dangerous situation. Please make preparations for those situations.
Thanks Chris. Will be watching your blog for updates. Have a GREAT day, everyone!
Heavy rain Sat. with a change over to snow early Sun. morning. Snow showers through Mon. morning. The concern is quick drop in temps on Sun. that will freeze the roadways that will be soaked from the heavy rains on Sat. The blowing snow will also create a hazard, as stated by Chris. Schools are bound to cancel classes, but there won’t be that much snow. That’s what I think is going to happen.
well looks like we wib;t have school in jessamine county on monday. I dare our superentendent (think i spelled it right) to have school of somesort even if fayette county does. looks like a good weekend to knit. i have 2 more finals and i am done hopefully I’ll pass them all. stay safe this weekend everybody.
All I am thinking about is that final comment about possible snow and ICE this time next week. My heart has stopped beating so somebody please call 9-1-1. 🙂
Once again I cannot see the forecast map for how much snow we are supposed to get! Can someone please tell me what it looks like for Harlan County on the map? Thanks and God Bless!!!
I’m thinking Chris is playing it safe by saying we will be affected by a Winter Storm this weekend instead of adding fuel to the fire for some that blame him if we don’t get a foot of snow lol! He is saying we’ll be in the middle of a weather maker but not actually his own personal opinion of true “Winter Storm Alert” with all the bells and whistles. There are lots of characteristics of a wonter storm without the huge snow totals and I think thats what he’s getting at. I’m amazed at his dedication to this board.
It’s funny how 36°F felt WARM when I walked outside this morning. 🙂
agree 110%..I could’nt have said it any better!!
4-8″
na the unless ur up on THE MOUNTAIN TOP in harlan u never see that. its a minomar for this areas.
its for the HIGH TOPS not the whole areas in harlan and letcher areas.
like in pineville city limits never sees what the MOUNTAINS see.
yeah here as well, temps. went up some 10 degrees overnight down here. I’m like you 37* felt warm out there this morning, I actually walked the dog this morning in short sleeves…lol..springtime…lol..
Once again the Cinci and Lex Wxologists are downplaying this storm. They are saying MAYBE 2 inches at most. Based on experience reading this blog, I’m going with Chris…he consistently beats them with snow forecasts.
If CB’s forecast pans out, the local mets are going to look bad. None are mentioning anything beyond 1″ to 2″ and this includes east KY.
No mentione of blowing snow, high winds and real cold temps.
Same thing last week, since the local mets did not mention the same level then, either. 1.5″ was the max for last weekend. They all blew that one.
I am going with the heavy rain on Sat. changing over to snow Sun. AM. I doubt there will be much in accumulation, 1-2″, but think the freezing temps will make for a lot of black ice. That, and the decreased visibility from blowing snow, will be the biggest concern. Schools will probably be canceled on Monday, but not much snow to play in. These are just my thoughts.
interesting to watch things start, look in texas at the moisture.
and northern plains as well.
inmtersting watching the moisture in texas this morning, and northern plains. this storm is going to be a MOISTURERICH system.
Last Friday, Cincy, Lville and local mets all blew last weekends forecast. Seems like they all read the same canned forecast, rather than doing an actual forecast.
after watching shanes video blog.(very good by the way shane). I found this one as well. called weather blender blog with spencer adkins who shows all the computer model scenario’s and the gfs’s snowfall totals…pretty cool..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUcLOk_oeAY&feature=related
I would love nothing more then for this system to juice up as it approaches Kentucky and just dumps like a foot of snow on us all lol…the backtracking of local MET’s and their oops we underestimated this one goofy looks would be priceless. So, ’98 all over again would be pretty nice!
The gfs takes the system out pretty quick. I like the Canadian! But, it is looking like my sled will stay indoors Monday and I will be at work…
that video is 2 days old. dec 8th morning runs.
So about this storm….. how much uncertainty still remains… and what the heck did METS use to forecast weather before models were available??? I know the 1993 superstorm was one of the first major winter storms that models actually picked up on, but what before that? Barometric pressure.?.?.?
Ok, I have to post this map from accuweather. All i can say is this is why so many consider accuweather a joke. Somebody is going to look foolish when this is all over with. The map is for snowfall totals thru Sunday evening. Im shocked at how the entire state of Kentucky is completely out of any accumulation! Maybe they know something we don’t. But, my money is with Chris.
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2010/400x266_12092002_snowmap.jpg
Thanks Tim… Spencer is actually competition to both me and Chris in our respective TV markets. He’s the Chief Meteorologist for West Virginia Media which provides weather for WOWK in Huntington/Charleston and WVNS in Beckley/Bluefield. He’s a very solid Met but sometimes plays a little too conservative on snow totals. Also a wonderful gentlemen and a true class act in the business.
Thanks Tim!
I am going with Chris too. I’ve not been steered wrong here before. I am seeing many more forecasts with ‘less than an inch’ for the Louisville area- where Bill L is- , but I am going with ~3′ as per Chris. MAYBE, just maybe, if it is wet enough….the sled comes out.
Last Friday, Accuweather was dead wrong for last weekend and so were regional and local mets. The only one that I noticed get is right was CB.
Based on the same groups that are forecasting today, it seems the same stark contrast for weekend through Monday forecast. CB the last man standing again?
Careful, If you read that map, it says Lake Effect Snow not shown. Read Chris’s posts again, Lake Effect is where we will get most of our snow.
What about the chances of flooding we have had alot of rain and snow this and last month.
I am juts going by who got it right last week (CB). Just like last week, Accuweather and our local mets are forecasting “1 to 2” for KY.
Since CB seems to be the only person that got it about right on Friday of last week, I will stick with CB on this one too 🙂
Getting a backyard measurement on this snowfall is going to be tough because it will be wind-driven. I expect that reports coming in will be all over the place, and few of them accurate.
Just re-read Chris’s entire post, Don’t see the words lake effect, am I missing it?
In ’98, there were two key differences. A) the low went up the eastern Apps, not through the Great Lakes and B) Dynamic Cooling was at it’s maximum which allowed the storm to produce snow earlier than expected. That’s unlikely with this coming storm.
I know this Mark. I only posted the link for map. There is an article that goes with the map and it says no more than a dusting even with our”lake effect” snows. Bottom line is by sunday evening we should have more than a trace from the initial system don’t you think?
When do the next models come in ?
C BIV u cant look at accucrack, last weekend into first of week HENRY MARG had his BIG DADDY HAT OUT and was saying eastern ky to the east/ne would get HAMMERED.
now today he making excuses and actually taking blame too.lol
nothing has changed as far as te NAM is going on its latest runs.
I know … they are saying London will get less than an inch …. even accuweather isn’t saying much.
All very true…the components are different. I was just saying it would be really nice for a similar scenario to play out. I mean, don’t you love to watch the local MET’s speechless?! Lol
I know. I just like to make fun of their useless sight. I do like their radars!
He is calling it “Backlash Snows” during this post. I have read every post he has posted this week, Lake effect will be the primary maker of snow. When the storm first goes through temp will be too warm.
And I suggest you should. No one is doubting Chris, just saying that the graphic which would have been used to bash other people, was not telling the whole story. Comment was not meant for you.
That is my point. Regardless of the map, Accuweather forecasts near what than the local mets call for 1″ to 2″ trough Monday.
Last Friday they ALL blew it except Chris. He was the last man standing then, so could we have two in a row?
My bet is on CB and I do not always agree, so not a case of blind loyalty 😉
Everyone’s forcast will change the closer we get. They focus on the entire country, Chris focuses on the regional area. (And does a mighty fine job of it). I have read accuweather’s post on this storm and they have give EKy more than a punchers chance of a good snow.
The 12Z NAM is interesting!! At about 48 hours you can see a secondary low develop in Virginia and by 54 hours it’s almost taken over. Under the new NAM run, eastern KY mountains will get HAMMERED.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif
Latest run of the NAM is lining up well with my thoughts for snow except in North Eastern KY.
forget bout OLD SCHOOL thias winter as this storm indicates the way the rest of winter will go, rain to upslope snows with a clipper here and there.
precip. wise the 12z nam and 06z gfs are almost the same…as the front moves through ky.
Well Christmas day is in model range now, here is what the 06z gfs is showing. I wonder how many times it will change until then? At least for now it has a big storm on Christmas eve and Christmas day, bad part is its rain to snow on Christmas day…Oh well I guess thats better than sunshine and 70..lol..unless thats your flavor.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_360m.gif
well those WSW,WARNINGS,and BLIZZARD WATCHES up north should have been ours..:( oh well..
Here is an interesting discussion from NWS in morristown Tn. for east tn., and southern Va areas…
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
948 AM EST FRI DEC 10 2010
.DISCUSSION…
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE…THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD-MOVING VORT MAX OVER OKLAHOMA. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THIN AND THE MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AS WELL…SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ON THE COMING WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND…THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING DIFFERENCE OF THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE 06Z GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE
COLD AIR…RESULTING IN NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN AN ALL
SNOW EVENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS…WHICH WOULD INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WOULD ALSO PRODUCE GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
VALLEY. THE SLOWER NAM SHOWS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT…TOWARD THE BACK END OF THE STRONGER
LIFT. THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 06Z
NAM…BUT IS STILL BEHIND THE 06Z GFS. WILL AWAIT THE 12Z GFS
BEFORE FINAL DECISIONS ARE MADE…BUT EXPECT THAT WINTER STORM
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
Yeah, but the sad thing is, there are people that live on the mountain or have to cross a mountain to get to school, so looks like we will be out a while. I figure if they are calling for 4-8 in, we will get about 3-4 in the valleys, and the 4-8 will be on the ridgetops!
GFS shifted a tad further south with satorm,
WSW goes up for border mountain counties. a snow advisorys/winter weather for rest of SE KY this afternoon id say.
Special Weather Statement from NWS Jackson as of 10:25am.
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=201012101525-KJKL-WWUS83-SPSJKL
Wxman, i agree with you…I don’t think there are going to be accurate measurements of snow amounts, as with the blowing snow, it is going to be all but impossible to get them, unless you have an area that is totally protected from the winds. As it is, I am still concerned with the timing of the changeover…if it occurs quickly with a lot of wet from the rains, it could pose problems with power lines in case of a flash freeze and high winds.
Any thoughts on that, anyone? Wxman, Mitch, Tim, Chris?
Brother Rolo, you are up and down 😉
Rolocoaster! 🙂
Is this going to wet, heavy snow like we had last year?
no bubba what did i say u big knuckle head, i said
GFS was a tad further south. now u are in sin u waiting,lol i saying more snow thats not what i meant. it was a reading of the models.
75 -100 miles is a tad further south.
the GFS snowmap does show 4 plus inches for SE/E KY though.
ole bubba dont trust me just read bailey TWEET 37 mintes ago.
the 12z GFS snowfal;l map should make many happy in eastern and se ky.
I have wanted to post resembling like tip on my website and this gave me perfect thought. Thank You!