Good afternoon gang and thanks for checking in with us. The latest GFS snowfall forecast is in and looks a lot like the call we put out last night. If anything… it actually one ups my snowfall map… literally. It shows about an inch more snow than I have for all areas.
Take a look at the snowfall totals for Sunday through Monday…
Here is the map from last night that I will let ride for the time being…
I will have another update later this afternoon or early this evening. This winter storm is going to pack a heck of a punch with snow, blowing snow and gusty winds and arctic cold. The time to get ready for it is NOW.
Take care.
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Bring on the snow!
Hopefully it’s an overperformer.
Thanks, Chris. I had a feeling you might be updating about now….hope you got some good shut eye, because I think you and a LOT more weather dudes are going to be burning the midnight oil after tonight, for sure! 😉
And you are right…the time to prepare for this is NOW, not when it starts to hit. Thank you for emphasizing that!
Looking forward to your next update! Hope we get a good snow out of this…but, as I said earlier, as long as all are safe, whatever comes is okay by me. (Heck, it ain’t even “officially” winter….yet!) 😀
1st? Maybe
In the words of Sponge Bob…..I’M READY! I’M READY! I’M READY! LOL
Sarah beat me by a minute
I looked at this 8 minutes after you guys and it didn’t show any comments lol
things are looking better!!!!!
take that bubba hubba.
models are tending to snow, my predictions might get shot down of 1-3.
the euto comes out at 1.
evening runs might get even bigger the way things have been trending.
ty BAILEY.
So, anyone think there will be WWAs coming out later? And Chris, even with lesser amounts of snow being possible,(ie…less than 6) with the cold and the blowing snow, can this still come under the guise of a WSW? I know certain criteria must be met, but I am just wondering if with all the pieces of this puzzle, does it qualify?
: )
Hold on to your hats. Regardless of accumulation–which looks significant–the cold and wind will be a bear. A polar bear. Watch out for your pets!
I know I’ll catch flack for this–but here it goes
If all we are going to get in Central KY is a 3 or 4 inch snowfall (at the most) I’d rather have today’s weather.
Currently sunny and 46 in Lawrenceubrg.
A small snow with more bitter cold weather equals little fun and higher heating bills.
Lets hope the power stays on, the rain and temps are concerning
A half foot on the east side of LEX? The GFS is on drugs. There’s no way that happens unless the low takes a slower and more southerly track.
most areas will do a coating to an inch. i am very much at odds with cb’s map. i hope i am wrong.
Wow, 12Z GFS continues to advertise a major ice storm to affect us on Thursday. Let’s hope that does NOT come to pass as depicted. As the GFS shows it, that would be a catastrophic ice storm.
Well the NWS in Jackson is currently projecting 2-4 in my area, so they did double their last projection of 1-2. But I agree WXMAN, 2-4 reasonable, 5-6 really seems to be overcasting. (At least for now)
As some here know, I can be a skeptic sometimes, but my impression here is CB may be thinking this system will have more punch than expected.
Even if we get the totals close to or same as the map here: MEGA fail by our local mets. Two weeks in a row.
Rolocoaster (meant with luv), I already posted yesterday I agreed with CB’s snow map post. If anything, the system has more potential to over-perform, rather than under-perform. Of course, none of that matters until the system actually decides on what is really going to do 😉
i am with ya mr mercer.
I agree guys, it alreay close to 50 and winds picking up, i d sayareas approach mid 50s tomm o higher.
it have to snow HHHHHHHHHEAVY TO even lay at the start.
looking it over it be a line of precip that scoots on out and any snow have to wait on upsloooooooope, so my 1-3 should be fine.
so is the above gfs totals for seKy possible? i’m in clay co. which looks to be in 6ish range, is it overdramatic with this run, or are we underestimating the system?? all views are appreciated! 🙂
A nice balmy day here in Boyle relatively speaking. While we are all focused on this near term system, looking into late week the potential for a nasty little ice system is rearing its head.
Oh but it does matter Bubba 🙂
looks like central is in a good snowfall range. I think somebody must have yelled get the bread and milk walkmart was super busy everybody on the grocery side. thanks chris for the updates. keep up the good work pal.
All that snow looks so nice parked in the driveway. Get you some more eggnog, Drive ya out in the middle of nowhere?
So what do you think for Madison Co? I know Chris has posted the snow totals that he thinks we will get, but when I check other weather sites, they already have southeastern counties under a special weather statement and nothing for us.
That is what happened in 98. Similar temps, then HEAVY snow. After the event though ,temps were still in low 30’s. Never got super cold.
CB and the models he is looking at suggest as sudden and stunning change in temps as the cold air moves down.
CB’s forecast is fair, considering the data. Catch (as always) is will signicant moisture hang around with the cold air, or be pushed out?
I recall that happening a few times in the last 12 years 😉
So you think we’ll get close to what we got last weekend?
I’m hoping we get more!!
I hope we don’t have any freezing rain as it changes over! Not even a little!!
Any news on timing of the change from rain to the cold from west to east? Going to Louisville from LEX Saturday evening and don’t want to be driving back on black ice…
The freezing rain we need to worry about is with that mid-week system. Wow, as shown currently in the GFS that would be total disaster.
Glad someone is!
Now, if we were going to get smacked (8 inches or more) i say bring it on…
Can I have a link? Thanks!!
Does that show anything on the Gfs over eastern Ky Pikeville area?Or has it not moved in yet Anyone?
yup, this threat for ice next week is being underdone big time as it stands both the gfs and euro have an ice storm here on Thursday, though southern ky gets above 32 for a time. Hopefully MJ is working today so frz rain gets added to nws forecast today.
How about letcher co how much.
Don’t forget that a low could still form at the base of the trough.
You are not suggesting the infamous central KY law will come into play are you?
32 degrees or greater = heavy rain
32 degrees of less = light to no snow
Always possible, considering our history.
6-8 for Letcher county, that is according to WYMT news.
And we all should know the track record for snow outlooks by models have been pretty awful, but ice outlooks have been fairly accurate (and with awful results).
Right now you are in the 6-10″ based on the GFS map that Chris posted above, and you are at 4-8″ based on Chris’ own map.
I second that.
The cold air and moisture never seem to meet up around here, do they.?
33 (not 32) degrees or greater, of course.
Not sure I agree. This system appears to have chops. Seems the only way to be a coating would be if most of the moisture misses us too.
The temps should drop quickly, so the freeze up could be startling to folks that may be out in it. We shall see.
Taken literally, the GFS puts down about .5″ of liquid precip. which would all fall as freezing rain since the surface freezing line never goes north of I 64. It’ll likely change, but IF it played out as shown, we’d be talking one of the worst ice storms KY has ever seen.
Nope! They can not seem to get along. Especially with these arctic type events on the back end. Most of the moisture usually gets out of town QUICKLY before the cold air comes in.
Will cold air and moisture finally get along this weekend??
Will Rolo get a new goat, saddle him up and ride, singing Hank Williams songs??
Thanks, Chris, for all you do. I don’t often chime in, but I read the blog daily. You help me plan student activities (and plan ahead for cancelling or rescheduling). This is such a valuable blog- you keep a lot of people safe!
Are you talking about this weekend storm…or is the ice prediction for next week?
thursday. the nws did add this to the discussion today.
WInter storm watches going up!!!! already east tn. where 5-10″ is expected according to NWS in MORRISTOWN and CHris twitter updates saying winter storm watches going up for east ky. as well…HERE WE GO…NOW WOULD BE THE TIME TO PULL THAT TRIGGER!!!!!!!!
oh brother here we go with the provebial CRITERIA issues!! from TN. to KY..where the bordering counties in tn are under a Winter Storm Watch, and ONLY the extreme va. bordering counties of ky. are…
Gotta love it, Tim! 😉
Will be upping snow totals across the board with a new update out by 6.
with the temperature changing so drastically…is there a chance for thunder snow? Only see in twice but each time we’ve had warm weather, then rain, then major heavy snow…during the ’84/’85 winter there was actually thunder and lightning…it was very cool!
Nam and gfs coming to a consensus of a 3 to 6 inch snow for alot of the region. hmm interesting but I still am having issue even though they obviously both suggest drastically falling temps thus the change to heavy snow. my main issue is just the overall storm itself tracking so far north of us it just makes very little sense even if the cold air just slams in here with all its might. so my thinking stands with up to one inch for some people but I just can’t see anyone getting more than that much less 3-6”, but CB does have model support…
I’d say Jackson is playing it very conservative this point. Their afternoon discussion didn’t buy into any model run at this point.
CB I hope your right! I’d love to get a good thumping of heavy snow. the last snow we got in covington was right at 3” but fell over a 16 hour period or so…it was pretty light really. Got to hand it to you, you definetly make your own forecasts and have got guts to go the way you are.heres to a good one! 😀
well the last euro brings the upper level low to the Ohio river, while before it was taking it well to the North.
Here is a quote for the NWS in Jackson Ky,
“SPECIFICALLY…THEY ALL TAKE
A NOW CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A CENTER
ROUGHLY CLUSTERED AROUND EASTERN IOWA. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE STILL
CLOSED TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER AND CUTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
NAM AN OUTLIER TO THE NORTH AND THE NEW ECMWF/GEM THE FURTHEST
SOUTH…PASSING THE CENTER OF THEIR UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE OHIO
RIVER”.
I remember that jen kind of freaked us out thunder with purple lighting. that was a horribl year too no power and my uncle had to get out in it to bring us batteries for the radio. goning to be an interesting weekend with the storm i think.
Hello everyone, been a while since I have commented on here probably since the spring, but I have read the blogs daily except for the last couple week, (had computer trouble)anyway, weather.com just gave only 2-4 and wymt is only giving 3-6 for most of the region, anyone care to comment on what they are thinking, because CB’s totals seem to be more than what they are giving. giving those two’s track records I myself believe cb has a better handle on things than they do, so I am going to stick with cb’s forecast
folks BUINESS IS PICKING UP!!!!!
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM,,, i have up from 1-3 to 4-8 inches from rocastle s and se and east. higher amounts futher se and east weeee go.
once it starts snowing u never know what can happen with the moisture.
JUST GOT IN EMAIL
6-12 INCHES WOW
NEW.KJKL.WS.A.0003.101212T0900Z-101214T0000Z/
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.MIDDLESBORO.PINEVILLE.HARLAN.
WHITESBURG.PIKEVILLE
350 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010
.WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
* RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY SUN MORNING & THE SNOW WILL
FALL MOSTLY CONTINUOUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.
* LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
6 TO 12 INCH RANGE BY MON EVENING.WHILE LWR ELEVATIONS WILL
PROBABLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES.
* THE SNOW & BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT THROUGH THE
WATCH PERIOD.PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY COLD
TEMPS & LOW WIND CHILLS COULD BE LIFE THREATENING TO THOSE
CAUGHT FOR TOO LONG OUT IN THE WEATHER & UNPREPARED
are you of the high terrain or lower terrain?
Most of Ohio has a special weather statement out now. The NWS is calling for 1″-3″ inches of snow. With the north east part of Ohio under a Winter Storm Watch. I guess we’re one step closer to at least a winter weather advisory
Love Chris’s latest tweet “GFS continues to pump out the snow Sunday through Monday. It continues to increase totals with each run.” Bring it on!
The “other guy” on facebook says 1-3 inches.
Now thats what I’m talking about! Let it Snow,Let it Snow,Let it Snow!!!!!
Just watched the 5 O’clock edition on WSAZ this is looking very promising.
Actually, WXMan….the last ice storm we got here–the one I named “Doppelganger,” (what was that, winter before last?) we got .60 of ice—so it couldn’t be much worse than that one. Not that it would be good for the state, mind you. Ice storms always blow chunks.
I’d say some time tomorrow central ky. gets a wwa issued for Sunday. The way things are trending, I wouldn’t be surprized if we got enough snow to call it a winter storm. Although I doubt a watch or warning would be issued. Just my thoughts.
I know I might not ought to talk about Advisories and such..but I got to thinking about how I wished NOAA had never gotten rid of their “Snow Advisory.” To me, it seems to hold more weight and importance than a regular ole “winter weather advisory.” I always assumed those were for minor events not causing much travel disruption, and most of the time didnt’ factor in the wind.
Anyhow, if I were the one in charge, I would pull out the “Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory” for parts of the central region that would pick up on the heaviest snow. LMK’s CFA looks to be just on the border of some of the heavier snowfall totals anyhow–everything west of there, and south..looks to be less as of now….
But, I’m not the one in charge (obviously,) I just hope they pick the right advisory (if they choose one) that best meets the criteria for this storm.
Does anyone see Chris’s forecast? Does he forecast the same on TV as he does here? I would think he is much more conservative on TV. Seem’s local Central KY mets are giving 1-3 at most.
Actually James, if they know its coming they pretty much have a responsibility to do issue watches and warnings (although I’m sure they don’t like to be reminded) :/
I still say go with the Snow and Blowing Snow advisory.
Oops…this got posted in the wrong area. Someone can move it if they feel like it. Sorry about that!
What does Chris forecast ? Seems all central KY mets are very low considering.
He just said 3-6″ for most of the area on t.v.
yeah its wild Tim. In northern Tennessee in the town of Winfield located on HWY 27 they are under a WSW with 3″-6″…then you go about 5 miles north into Strunk,KY also located on hwy 27…and there is no watch with 2″-4″ …leaning towards the 2″…LOL
yep, thats what he just said , widespread 3-6″ of fluffy powdery snow…blowing and drifting snow, and windchills approaching -10* !!!!…mmmmmm thats as about as good as a good ole kettle of Chicken and dumplins…lol…:)
Thanks for feedback sorry I posted pretty much the same question twice. I didn’t think the first went through. Seems like the worst of this will be the brutal wind and cold.
here’s a long range nugget!!..lol..12z gfs snowfall map for Christmas day has all of east ky. buried under 4-10″ of snow!!…:)
Looks like you are right. I am from Louisville and we are looking for 1′ (says television drone mets)- Chris says more. I am with Chris. He is fined tuned for winter forecasts.
I stand my ground the models have been terrible for this whole thing from the begining. everyone keeps talking about all the models on here i am yet to see one of these women….JKJK someone said that yesterday on the blog and i flipped laughing
I’m sure we’ll all be tracking it as well as I think this blog has a cult like following lol…..my heart can’t take much more but it’ll be worth it if we get a nice big snow 🙂
Working on an update and should have it out in a bit.
Thanks for all the hard work Chris!
Please of please find more snow for Louisville. I will cheer for the Kats ALL season.
Is there a direct correlation between liquid precipitation totals and ice accumulation?
I SEE A BAND SNOW A RISIN,,,, I see TROUBLEW ON DA WAYYYY……
latest HPC look great as well.
just got call from my uncle the billy goat is staying in barn, that meant for years a SNOWW AND A DECENT ON IS A COMING. its billy goat jones named after TERRANCE JONES.
Looks like the Rolocoaster is heading up 😉
remember this is thru tuesday totals we are giving.
got be a paul bearer tomm so i be away for a few, so TIMMY u keep repesenting our area ole buddy and get ANDY ROSE out that hole.
Please Lord……no ice storm, i can’t go through that again…I need heat, hot water and electricity. Ice storms aren’t necessary. Come on cold air aloft and on the ground!!!
also go to the satlite loop national its moveing way more souyth by the look of things folksd.
I think we’ll have to worry about an icestorm after this storm. Thursday-Friday of next week looks like an ice storm for sure.
New video blog from me will be out shortly:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIgztfS0-Eg
I’m so anxious for this next post it’s not even funny. 😉
Nice job Shane. Very informative.
same here!! Especially since every local MET here in Louisville is very sturdy with their prediction this evening if 1″ to 2″ inches tops when it’s all over! They’re all acting like it’s not going to be a big deal. Even with the wind. I mean, 1″ and 6″ is a huge difference in forecasts given the winds we all will be experiencing. I just don’t get it. Why do these guys always downplay things and when they are wrong they never take any accountability. At least, Chris is a stand up man and will admitt when he blows a call (which is rather rare).
cause they are not in the upslope or the wraparoud moisture as front passes.
I couldn’t agree more with that!!!!!!!!!!!!
The NWS says it is going to be a “major” storm for KY. Do you consider that “downplaying”?
Which one? LMK, or JKL?
What I find interesting is to track the NWS site since 7 am this morn. The warning and watch areas were for Central and Northern MN and WI. As of Noon, Southern MN and WI were added. As of & pm ALL of southern MN and WI and Now half of ILL are under watches and warning. The low is drifting and I can see that as an asolute neophyte. However, I am left handed and VERY intuitive by nature. Have fun tracking, EVERYONE.
Really looking forward to the next post 🙂
The Louisville NWS has come around for this storm, they are now predicting a general 1 – 4 inches of snow depending upon where you live in the coverage area and are definitely emphasizing the cold. But in my view they mostly play it conservative and as a result have to play catch up frequently.
New post from bailey is up for all of u to read. totals have been raised.
Evening, all. Just got finished scrolling through all the comments. How nice to see the whole gang back together again! 😉 Looks like we are in for a rough couple of days to me, and if the further forecast Wxman was talking about comes to pass….well, I won’t go there….at least not now.
My own thoughts are that JKL will eventually issue some type of advisory. I agree that the plain old snow advisory of the past needs to be resurrected. When you see WWA, you (I) tend to think, ah well, some rain and light snow….but me thinks this storm will be a lot more than that. This one is dangerous, folks, and that should not be forgotten. A couple of inches on top of a flash freeze with blowing snow and low visibilities is not something I want to take lightly.
I think Chris will state his opinion as far as the watches and warnings are concerned. He always has. So, now, we wait…..and wait….
I hope its an overachiever, A+ kind of storm. Then the tease about later in the week next week makes me hopeful Christmas break will start early this year for me. Thanks CB, bring it on
Im still at school studying for an O-Chem final that was postponed on monday…Waitin for some snow, but it had to be on the day I have to work as a medic snow=long days!! BRING IT ON!!!!
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