Good Friday evening gang. Thanks to each of you for all you do to help make this blog what it is. The models have all converged on a similar solution for the weekend into early next week. A winter storm will strike the region from Saturday night through Monday and will deliver a wicked blast of winter.
If you have been paying attention to my snow maps of late… you will notice I have trended the amounts higher with each update and this one is no different…
My latest thoughts…
– Rain will overspread the area from west to east late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours.
– This rain will change to snow from west to east Saturday night as cold air rapidly works eastward. By Sunday morning… it is snowing everywhere.
– This snow early Sunday may come down pretty hard at times and can lay down a quick inch or two of slushy snowfall. This should be followed by a very brief lull in the snows before backlash snows kick in west to east by afternoon.
– These backlash snows look to be intense and will continue into Sunday night and Monday. It is during this time we should pick up the brunt of our snowfall.
– Snow showers and squalls will continue into Tuesday morning across the eastern half of the state.
– Temps will crash late Saturday night into Sunday with a quick 10 degree drop in an hour or two as the front plows through. This will likely result in a rapid freeze up of all the water from the prior rains.
– Temps for Monday and Tuesday will stay in the teens with lows in the single digits for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. We have a shot at zero in some spots.
– Winds will crank up late Sunday into Monday and will create blowing and drifting snow. The blowing snow and backlash snows will combine to produce whiteout conditions at times.
– Travel during this time will be treacherous and will not be recommended.
– Wind chills will head below zero later Sunday through Tuesday.
Parts of extreme southeastern Kentucky are under a Winter Storm Watch already and I fully expect advisories and warnings to go up for the entire area before the first flakes fly. Something I would like to see the NWS folks do this go around is forget about criteria and focus on impact when issuing watches and warnings. This is going to be a VERY HIGH impact storm for Sunday and Monday and you need attention grabbing headlines.
I will have another update coming up later tonight and the blog will be updating often through the weekend. I will also use Twitter to send out some quick updates.
Don’t look now… but snow and ice is going to be a big concern from Wednesday night through Friday as another system heads our way.
Take care.
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First!
bring on the snow!
Looking GOOD !!!!!
THANKS CHRIS! I TRUST YOUR FORECAST FOR SNOW OVER ALL THE OTHER LOCAL DROIDS…
First! yes, immature- I know.
3-6 for nky sounds good!!!
Thanks for the great update, Chris. I was wondering if you could perhaps break down regional timing for the rain-to-snow changeover. With so much area covered by the blog, there are sometimes hours of difference between west to east. I know that no timing is perfect, but even a couple hours’ ballpark might be helpful for plans, etc.
I know that your dedication to the weather of the state and even the surrounding areas have no doubt saved lives, in addition to being convenient and fun, and we thank you for that.
-Pastor Chris
Ashland
Thanks for the update chris! Looks as if the snow train is fired up and ready to go,I say bring on the snow all week long, but I can do without the ice that is heading our way, cause most of the time where there is an ice storm there are wide spread power outages, just like what we went through last Dec. I was without power for a week, and I am in no hurry to do that again.
As pointed out earlier, really no coordination at all between the various NWS offices. Morristown has their northern counties under a WSW, forecasting 3-6″ of snow by Monday. Cross the border into Jackson’s CWA and they’re totally playing it conservative, no advisories, watches-just 2-4.”
As we will be seeing some wild weather Sun.-Thurs., are the long range models still trending towards a warmer Jan. & Feb.?
Love the sound of it, but sounds like it will make the trip into work Monday morning a bit tricky….
Glad to see I wasn’t the only one upping my totals this time around! Chris thank you so much for giving us such an awesome community to talk about the weather! You da man!
Any NFL games played outdoors in the northeast Sunday are going to be a BLAST to watch!! I love those games where it’s snowing so hard you can’t even see the yard markers on the field!
Just looked outside in Lexington, looks like the Snowdome is back!
I noticed that too. I have been checking there website like every 30mins, and no upgrades from special weather statement. I just think that with the 4-8 chris is predicting and the bitter cold and wind that is coming with this storm they should have to upgrade to a winter storm watch, like chris said in his post that would get every ones attention much more so than just a special weather statement
Not only that, but they do have some model support it seems to upgrade to a WSW for most of the area. The GFS and I believe the NAM are indicating higher amounts. So, really no need to upgrade because of impact because it seems that most of the area would fit in the criteria. One of these winters, a 1998 type of storm will sneak up on these guys. I can still remember that one like it was yesterday, they stuck with the Flurries/Lt Snow prediction until mid day, after we picked up a several inches and it was painfully obvious that we were in for a thumping.
Missed it again 🙁
You peeps are fast 🙂
Folks need to be patient for the snow, since it is the SECONDARY flow that most of the snow will be in.
I remember when CB was still with TG in Lexington and people dogged CB for a snow forecast and it was a similar situation to this one.
That’s funny because typically the WFOs coordinate with each other to keep their forecasts consistent, and this is usually when their forecasts will suck out loud. Because it prevents a good forecaster from issuing what he/she really thinks will happen. But in this case we’re seeing the opposite. Wild.
I remember that, too, Bubba. I have aninteresting question….I know a few miles canmake a big difference, but, I live about 30 minutes from the Tennessee state line, and Winfield…I would think that if they are under a WSW, we could at leaast get an advisory…..
I am thinking that this one COULD be an overachiever. It wouldn’t be the first time. But that is just my own thought.
Guess we will see soon enough. Gonna put on the seatbelt and enjoy the ride!
A blast from the past. For those of you that remember the 1994 Winter Storm.
http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=XagsY__V_RY&feature=related
The system has a good shot of giving your area about 6″ of snow… assuming everything gels, of course (as always).
This system has decent potential to be an overachiever. Next week has me a tad worried though.
Chris thanks so much for your updates!!! I hope everyone is safe during this storm and don’t forget to leave your water dripping!!
Tim, I have been on noaa, and I donot see where any kind of WSW has been issued for East Tennessee…where did you dee this?
wow! that really brought back some good memories I was 17 when this storm hit and because of it we liked to never went back to school, had a lot of fun in that storm, out four wheeling in my old 77 ford 4×4, myself and my dad were the only ones in the neighborhood with 4×4’s so all the neighbors were calling on us to try and get to the store or where ever they needed to go, that is how I learned how to drive in snow, wouldn’t mind seeing another storm with those types of snowfall totals
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/
Try here
Chicago Bears 9-3 vs New England Patriots 10-2 at Chicago 4:15 game. Chicago will be having a decent snowstorm that should be a snow game.
I am so excited about this event! The only signifcant snow my son has ever seen was last year! I can’t wait til it starts!
congrats…..
Sounds like a very interesting weekend ahead for our area…..WXman…Cleveland will be playing at Buffalo Sunday…that’s my “Snowday game of the day” Hope all stay safe during this bout of Wintry weather….
The NWS in Wilmington and the Cincy and Lex Wxologists are finally beginning to come around to higher snow totals. Just this morning they were only saying MAYBE 1-2 inches. Now they are up to 2-4. Chris, you rock! You’ve been warning about this storm for 3 days now and they have pretty much ignored it until it is almost on top of it. This blog is my FIRST CHOICE for weather information because of your accuracy.
Bubba! You’ll be first next time…I can feel it. 🙂
SERIOUSLY…If you want uncanny accuuracy, come HERE. CB is the ‘winter weather whisperer’. A lot of folks from L’ville have moved over here since JB shut down and we have been amazed.
That is, without a doubt, the saddest thing I have seen on this blog to date.
Winter Weather Whisperer, Hah Thats pretty good.
Since I get the auto emails, I am not on the blog a whole lot anymore but I do look to all your updates. Just because I am silent does not mean that I am not faithful. Been retired from teaching for 2 years but have recently gone back to teaching part time so now I have a renewed interest in the weather. I just teach on Monday and Tuesday so this forecast really has me coming back. Thanks for all you do Chris. It is SO appreciated.
I second that…They’re trying to keep the blog going over at Wave3. But, they are sooo delayed on putting comments up by ppl. Their last update was 3:55 today!! I mean, come on. Only 4 comments and nothing but local MET’s saying 1″ maybe 2″. They are all clones of the NWS downplaying ways. Thank goodness for this site!! I still think 4″ is a good bet for Louisville, or at least parts of it. But, if you listen to locals MET’s, they all say “light snow showers on back end”. Talk about downplaying. What about the wind with this storm, and brutal cold temps??? Dropping the ball once again IMO!
I am fairly new to this blog but will admit it has become addictive! Chris has those of us close to maysville getting 3-6″. What are the chances of the nam or gfs coming in a bit stronger over the next 12 hours? Anybody have any thoughts?
I third that. I am another Wave3 blogger that is dismayed that they allow half a day to pass without an update! I followed Chris last year and he really is one of the best around! Love his honesty!
Jealousy is a meal eaten alone my friend…
over under at 38! for those following along at home
Nowhere near the same at WAVE after John Belski left. JB was to the Louisville area as Bailey is to Lexington and Eastern Kentucky. The new guy, Brian Goode, loves winter weather, but doesn’t update often. The other two guys are good, but tend to downplay every event. I guess that’s why we have more bloggers from the Louisville area these days.
00z GFS coming in. This will be the last call for snowfall.
The 00z NAM looked great!!!!
Bill Meck still sticking with 1-3 by the time it wraps up.
BubbaG, what area do you think the ice will affect next week? Or is it too soon to tell?
Not a Meckite, but just wanting to give the “Other Guys” forecast.
You are correct. I loved JB’s blogs and have been looking at CB’s since last year. Still visit WAVE3 or a regular basis, but always CB’s first. It is very informative and everyone is just as friendly.
U of L Soccer to the NCAA Finals…GO CARDS!
00z gfs has what is called a vort max moving through sunday afternoon and night leading to an enhancement of snow across southern ky. will be raising totals on my site as well.
If I lived in along or north of I-64 I’d be getting nervous about next week. The 00z GFS is still showing a pretty big deal icestorm. The whole state starts out as a mix and goes to frz rain. Areas along and north of I-64 have a prolonged period of frz rain. Something worthing keeping an eye on for sure!!!
Hi Mitch, I’m new here. What is a vort max and how do I access your site? Thanks for the insight – will the enhancement include L’ville?
Jim Caldwell at WYMT laid it out like this:
Saturday: rain begins in evening
SUnday: Rain changes to snow between 5-9am quick 1-2″..Sunday accum. 3-6″..6-8″ in the higher elevations..
Monday: another 1-3″…3-6″ in higher elevations…
just click on his name…vort max will enhance the snowfall intensity..
I can’t believe the comments on here! How can anyone want any snow and cold to begin with, much less amounts like these? Do you not realize what hardships this puts on people and animals? What about old people who are in bad health? What if someone has a heart attack and can’t get to the hospital because of the road conditions? What about the possibility of people losing their electricity and freezing to death? Weather like this is nothing to celebrate.
It is great to know that there is a CARDS faction here at the Bailey Blog! GET THAT NCAA SOCCER TITLE CARDS!
lol, all i can say is LOL FREAKING LOL
yea…snow sucks 😀
Which Euro opponent will UofL be playing in the final four the University of Hamburg,Oxford,or Amsterdam.
What time does the game commence? And will we be able to receive live coverage from the game over there in Europe. I hope it does not interfere with the hoops that will be on TV.
Thanks Tim. Happy Holidays to you.
oh brother, give me a break…this is a WEATHER BLOG!!! we LOVE WEATHER ON HERE ESPECIALLY WINTER…
HOW CAN WE LOVE SUMMER..>HEAT STROKES< SUNBURNS!!! HOW CAN WE LOVE SPRING..>FLOODS,ALERGIES,POLLEN!!!!
HOW CAN WE LOVE FALL..>ALL THOSE HORRIBLE LEAVES TO SLIP AND FALL ON!!!!!
…………
WE LOVE,LOVE,LOVE,LOVE,WEATHER SO CHILL!!!
LOL 🙂
hahaha 🙂
Antone have anything on the 0z GFS snowfall? The site I use doesn’t have it up yet.
Either your threshold for “sad” is very shallow, or you have not read this blog too long then.
More succinctly, you apparently do not get a joke.
He just went up on his totals Tim. 🙂
Hi Kaye, We Baileyites mean no harm at all. The snow and cold will come whether we celebrate it or not. Fearing it or being dismayed by it will not make it go away. All of nature sings out the praises and power of my Creator and I choose to find the joy in it when I can. There will be many times when I will be served up with sadness, but a winter wonder land is not one of them, not now anyway. That being said, I also shovel my elderly neighbor’s drive and get her groceries, make sure to feed the birds ( and ..yes the squirrels) when it snows. My ‘winter help’ donations to the electric company help to pay the bills of those less fortunate, and the hill in my backyard is open to the public for sledding all year. I do what I can to help when Nature does what she can to make things a challenge. Everyone who posts here does, I’m sure. Try enjoying the weather! Come back and celebrate it here! There are an awful lot of VERY colorful characters who post here from across the whole state of Kentucky. Its becoming a social thing to be here! You’ll be amazed at how much you learn, humbled by the kindness and big-heartedness of the posters ( Chris, Rolo, Mitch, Wxman, Coffeelady, Bubba, Tim, Sharon, all the Bills and the all of the crew) and little more happy when you log off. I promise!
Based on your premise of concern, would that not make reading this blog in the winter, a form of misery mongering? 😉
Couldn’t agree more. We just have to take what we get and be happy with it, whether it’s in the winter or summer. It’s all weather.
Not supposed to be snowing now anyway, so no harm no foul 🙂
Here you go for 0z gfs snowfall. Looks much like CB’s!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DTX
SOCCER CARDS DID IT! SANTA BARBARA, Calif. — Freshman Aaron Horton did it again for the University of Louisville soccer team.
Horton scored a goal with 51 seconds left in the NCAA College Cup semifinals Friday night to push the Cardinals into Sunday’s national championship game.
um.
Top-seeded and top-ranked U of L (20-0-3) will face the winner of Friday night’s Akron-Michigan game in Sunday’s 4 p.m. EST title game.
here is the 00z GFS for southern and eastern KY
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
It like a good kind of pain I just have to keep reading it and I don’t even like to read. Kaye does make a point but everything happens for a reason always has and always will. [LTB]
Thanks guys!!!
I have been cheering it on since I have been a kid. I would like to see it snow so deep I couldn’t find my Jeep in the driveway lol. I have wood stacked and a load of coal and all my kerosene cans filled. We have this blog to keep track and be prepaired. I am ready… Are you?
Who would want spring with all the tornadoes and lightning. Please! Kaye take a chill pill literally.
Sry about that…this is the correct link lol.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
If things hold (hope it does not), it seems that north of the Kentucky River may be at greater risk. Similar set-up to the big ice storm about seven years ago.
Richmond missed it, but north of it got slammed. This does not mean Richmond or further south is in the clear, but seems the greater risk may be more north.
LMK and JKL seem pretty satisfied with the afternoon forecast. I guess the 00z run of the NAM and GFS didn’t make them wanna change anything. I guess the morning shift may make some adjustments if the 06z runs hold as the 00z runs did.
Why does he need to “get the joke?” How do you know he/she is not carrying one the joke? Not necessarily your fault. It is easier to read a person’s emotions/intentions in person. Darned technology! Here’s to hoping that everyone is having a good tims and getting ready for a good old fashioned Wisconsin snowstorm like I’m used to!!
yeha Mike I’m growing really concerned about Thursday. In fact the trend in my view should be cooler as we get closer as the models have a hard time low level cold and snowcover.
Just watched the 3 Lexington stations webcasts from tonight… a lot of folks are going to be in for a bit of a rude awakening Sunday night and Monday morning if that was there only source of info.
It keeps the stray dog poulation in check. hahahahah joking i love dogs. But ummmm, how can u not love snow, the anticipation of a big event, and the friends you make in the weather world. dont wry, youll come around and be a winter fanatic like all of us on the blog.
very good question I don’t know yet but 3-6 under that vort max seems like a good bet, 2-4 outside of it.
Hay! You left my name off! JK lol
That did bring back memories!!! I worked at BI-in…the National Guard picked up staff…my best friend and I decided to try and drive…we made it but we were the only ones on I-75 and we just scooted along the road. We had a skeleton crew and alternated 4 hour shifts for 4 days. We had a blast. We made snowmen in the ambulance bay…
I worked @ BRMC in Corbin…not sure what happened to my post…hmmmmmmm.
I have a question for anyone who can answer it. I have to be at Rupp Sunday at 1pm for my daughters high school basketball game. Is this going to be a dangerous trip?? We have a 4×4 but I just get a little nervous traveling on ice..lol
Sorry…guess I should have said that we would be coming from Wolfe County..lol
It won’t be a fun drive at all. But if your in a 4wd and take it slow(allow plenty of extra time) you should make it. Watch for icy spots. Wind will be blowing snow back over the roads. Drive safe!