Good Saturday everyone and welcome to the calm before the winter storm. If you have anything you need to do outdoors this weekend… today is the day for you. Our weather will go downhill from here as a winter storm lashes the region with snow, high winds and bitterly cold temps the next few days.

After looking at the latest data… I feel good with the forecast we have out and see no reason to change anything at this point. That may change later today as I take a closer look at how this thing shapes up in the final hours before it moves in.

Here is another breakdown for you…

– Today will feature increasing clouds and temps well into the 40s. Rain will push into western Kentucky this afternoon.

– Rain will move eastward this evening into the wee hours of the morning. Cold air quickly moves in changing the rain over to a period of snow overnight into early Sunday morning. This can result in a slushy inch or two of snow for some.

– I do expect a lull in the snow for many areas Sunday. The timing on this lull all depends on where you live. Don’t freak out if it isn’t snowing outside your house at some point during the day.

– Backlash snows will really kick in from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening. These snows should come down at a good clip. It is from later Sunday afternoon into Monday that the bulk of our snows will fall with this storm.

– Snow showers and squalls will then continue late Monday into Tuesday morning for the north and east.

– Temps will drop quickly Saturday night into Sunday morning with readings dropping through the 20s Sunday. This rapid temp drop will lead to a freeze up of moisture from the prior rains.

– Highs for Monday and Tuesday will stay in the teens as lows dip into the single digits for Tuesday and Wednesday.

– Gusty winds of 30mph from later Sunday into Monday will create blowing and drifting snow and wind chills below zero.

– Travel from later Sunday through Monday will be tricky at best.

Let’s get to a few maps. The first item up for bids is what the GFS is showing in terms of the transition from rain to snow and the backlash snows moving in…



My previous snowfall map continues to look good and I have no changes…



I will put out an updated map later this afternoon with a Last Call For Snowfall map coming your way late this evening. I am sure I will make some changes as we get a look at radar and how the last minute trends are setting up.

I am already looking ahead to the period from late Wednesday through Friday for a potential winter storm threat. This would be for a nasty mix of snow and ice which you can see here on the GFS for Wednesday evening…



In looking at this next storm… watch for the models to trend colder as we get closer. They have a history of trying to dislodge low level arctic air much too quickly. Let’s see if that holds with this system as well. Regardless… keep an eye on this one as it has some big potential. Beyond this next storm… more cold air with snow chances would then take us into Christmas week.

First things first and that is our current storm. Keep checking back for updates and have some good winter chat in the comments section.

Have a great Saturday and take care.