Good Saturday afternoon everyone. I am popping on for this update for two reasons. The first is to deal with the winter storm moving in later tonight through Monday. The second reason is to upgrade the Wednesday through Friday period to a Winter Storm THREAT.
One storm at a time and the first one is already pushing rain quickly across western Kentucky. I have had my thoughts out on the progression of this storm for several days now and have no major changes. I will continue to freshen up the wording and snowfall forecast until the last call later this evening. Here is my latest map…
Here is a recap of how it all plays out…
– Rain will continue to move eastward this afternoon into the evening. Cold air quickly moves in changing the rain over to a period of snow overnight into early Sunday morning. This can result in a slushy inch or two of snow for some. Most areas should only pick up minor accumulations.
– I do expect a lull in the snow for many areas Sunday… especially in northeastern Kentucky. Again… Don’t freak out if it isn’t snowing outside your house at some point during the day.
– Backlash snows will really kick in from west to east Sunday. These snows should come down at a good clip. It is from later Sunday afternoon into Monday that the bulk of our accumulating snows will fall with this storm.
– Snow showers and squalls will then continue late Monday into Tuesday morning across the north and east.
– Temps will drop quickly tonight into Sunday morning with readings dropping through the 20s Sunday. This rapid temp drop will lead to a freeze up of moisture from the prior rains.
– Highs for Monday and Tuesday will stay in the teens as lows dip into the single digits for Tuesday and Wednesday.
– Gusty winds of 30mph from later Sunday into Monday will create blowing and drifting snow that can lead to local whiteout conditions. Wind chills will head below zero.
– Travel conditions will go downhill quickly during this time.
Let’s get you some tracking tools to follow this storm into town…
Current Temps
I will have more updates through the day and a Last Call For Snowfall coming up later this evening so be sure to check back.
Storm number two will be rolling our way Wednesday and will likely bring a period of significant snow and ice to the region through Friday… thus the upgrade to Winter Storm Threat. The model trend has been and will continue to be for a colder system. The amount of low level arctic air will not be pushed out of the way very easily. As it stands now… northern areas stand to see the most snow with areas along and south of Interstate 64 having much more of an ice threat. Here is hoping the cold can hold as that would mean a higher snow over ice threat. Either way… we will be watching this storm very closely in the coming days.
There you have it… two winter storms that are likely to impact the area over the next 5 days and the blog will be here for you each step of the way.
Check back for updates. Have a great Saturday and take care.
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A possible two winter storms this week! Thats what I’m talking about!
Uh oh…. the “I” word is becoming more and more predominant in the convos on here. Get out the generators, folks..
Darn! It hs gone down in Southern Ohio! I was wanting the big stuff 🙁
gotta luv an upgrade
Please!! No ICE!
I work for a utility company in Lexington, really hoping the ice misses us. Miserable working conditions and very long hours.
My gut is telling me this will be an overachieving storm and I’m going with 3-6″ across most cky.
I will be very happy to get 4 inches of snow in mercer county. No school Monday if that happens and I hope no driving to Nashville for me! BRING ON THE SNOW !
Mercer county too I hope !
Man I thought we were getting lucky with one storm this week but two is icing on the cake…..let it snow, let it snow, let it snow 🙂
Winter storm watches and warnings for Tennessee right up to the Ky. border, nothing for here in SE Ky.???? Strange
“icing”–nice….
I haven’t posted since last year–great blog….
nothing but rain with first syatem and rain with second system for SE KY.
Are there any advisories anywhere in Ky as of now?
For the love of all things great and small and ice storm next week? Please say it ain’t so. I’d rather eat comet than go through an ugly ice storm. I HATE the mere mention of that. Surely that can’t be right being five days out. Hopefully that will change to either snow or nothing. Oh well, OFF to work (from home)…….will catch up with the blog later
here you can watch live blizzard cams here at this link 🙂
http://www.chasertv.com/watch/video-wall-chat/
umm then why does he got us with 3-6 inches of snow then?? explain that…
i know what you all are saying about the ice storm the last one we had mom and i took turns to go out and chip ice off the satelite dish so we could watch tv but if we loose power that = no computer which = my autistic daughter not a happy camper which means drive mom nuts so no ice lease i’ll talk to the miser brother about that tonight.
I don’t know, for some reason I am skeptical of this snow sticking, it’s almost 60 degrees here in SE KY.
Here is the reason for Tennessee issuing a Winter storm warning for parts of the state. (North Central area)
UPDATE…
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE WSW FOR THE MID STATE. LATEST 12Z MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE
MID STATE WITHIN THE VERY COLD POST FRONTAL SECTOR ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND GENERALLY
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. SUFFICIENT VORT ENERGY WITHIN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
Wave 3 reporting from brian goode that nws in lmk will issue wwa from 1 am sunday to 1 pm monday
I am thinking the same thing, I think even if the temps do drop dramatically then still its gonna take a inch or so from our totals if it dont stick the first part. Who knows tho… I never went to school to study weather, but I can tell its a little to warm! Im still hoping for the Big one tho Lol…
My hope is this storm lays down a nice 2-3 inch couting everywhere which allows for the cold air to be just a bit colder. Hopefully, that allows the next storm to be more some than ice. I still have nightmares from January 2009. I think snow is more likely, but that’s just me.
I think there is 3 main issues with this storm that will have to be played out. 1) will the low continue its trend towards the south 2)how much moisture will be available on the backside of the low 3)how fast will the cold front drop the temp.
As the cold front progresses east tonight I will be looking at reporting stations to the west of Louisville and get an indication of how fast the temperature is dropping.
I am sure the spotters are on alert and ready to give all us accurate & complete details about what is occurring at their location at that moment.
I think I finally getting emotionally involved about the hype of this storm.
what on God’s green earth is wrong with jackson weather service in jackson???? they are absolutely forcasting nothing more than a inch, maybe two. cb and jim on wkyt are forcasting a nice amount of snor for se ky. what’s the deal here???? somone please tell me what’s going on with nws jackson!!!
jon i will, no advisory out when means it aint going do much as far as accumlation snow excepot for few inxhes in mountain upslope is why, there very few counties that get upslope as it hits mountains.
Hey guys 51 in Pikeville darn,I am afraid it will cut down on snow totals but we are under a winter storm watch I got this in my email just now.
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING…
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
* RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THE SNOW
WILL FALL MOSTLY CONTINUOUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.
* LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE 6 TO 12 INCH RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING…WHILE LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS SUCH AS HARLAN…MIDDLESBORO…PIKEVILLE
AND WHITESBURG WILL PROBABLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES.
* THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT THROUGH
THE WATCH PERIOD…PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS COULD BE LIFE
THREATENING TO THOSE CAUGHT FOR TOO LONG OUT IN THE WEATHER
AND UNPREPARED.
Rolo can’t read.
I am sorry that starts tonight.I dont want to mislead anyone.Rolo what is your take now in the Pikeville area or Pike County?
hey ECHO u also can SHUT THE CRAP UP boy.
I know what im taking bout, I was watching weather before u quit pooping yellow. sorry BAILEY if this is too much I want say it again. im sorry but this guys are on my nerves.
u said we can give our thoughts ands I do but some just rag on me till it gets old.
Rolo what are your thoughts on tommorow for Pikeville or Pike county area?I value your input.
I don’t post a lot, but i do read the blog often.. But Rolo, you’re always such a weather downer… and u never make up your mind.. one minute, u think Kentucky is going be hammered, next you say its all a rain event…I’ve never seen someone as negative and a party pooper as u when it comes to thinking…I’m wondering are you a met???? If so, doesnt sound like it.. LAst time i checked, Chris B is a met and is pretty much on the money when it comes to the weather…I find it humorous, that some of you challenge Chris Bailey’s maps and forcast..especially when ur not trained met…
Me too Rolo. You seem to nail the forecast an awful lot of times! We who know the blog trust you.
I trust Chris, he’s the met, not Role..Rolo never makes up his mins, one min he think’s ky is going be hammered, next, its a rain event..
It’s impossible for him not to nail it. He makes every forecast possible for the same storm. 🙂
How about Letcher Co wed will we get ice or snow.
Keep on typing Rolo. Your posts are appreciated up here in NKY. 🙂
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=60847&source=0
The NWS Louisville puts I-65 corridor and east in the 2 to 4 inch area through Monday, right along Bailey’s forecast.
no advisory means the NWS is being the NWS
yea ol rolo changes his mind after every model
That is SO true !!!! lol
Chris almost always says we are getting more snow then the local mets. So is there a chance he will up his totals in his last call ?
Rolo —-Keep posting I love to read what you post :))
Rolo, always states 8 different scenarios. So in other words he is never wrong.
I wonder when the next post will be….
First time poster, long time reader. rolo is the man. That is all
50 degrees here in pikeville, still feeling a good 6-9″ is possible in my area, my call for you guys in CKY 2-6″ depending on where at, exactly
What about in anderson county?
The low appears as though it is still going further south than expected. JMO
Thats why the old timers of this blog Love ROLO. He’s been here from the days on KYT.
NW Lex Masterson Station:
45º w/rain
Song of the day goes out to my redneck friend Rolo…
ELO – “Don’t bring me down”
“Don’t bring me down,Lewis
Don’t bring me down,Lewis
Don’t bring me down,Lewis
Don’t bring me down”
…
Leave Rolocoaster aloooone!
His billy goat does all the blogging for him- EVERYBODY knows that! 🙂
Accuweather doesn’t even have Kentucky with accumulating snow. At least that’s what their national map shows.
That’s a good thing… Accucrack is notorious for getting it “wrong”
…
Like the drums in that song- HEAVY! Though I prefer hard rock and blues, that song got the drums right 🙂
NWS in JKL must be on early christmas vacation!!!!! for the love of weather, this is as about as rediculous as it gets…
latest snow map from LOU-NWS
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/initial3.png
…
First time blogger, read a lot on the site. So, what if the low goes more south, what does that mean? How is london looking in this?
Vinny says Anderson county will get 2.7″ when all is said and done…
But I’m no expert…
2-3″
Probably closer to 3″
Latest from LMK:
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
301 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010
…PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING…
.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL QUICKLY…CHANGING
THE RAIN OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AND FINALLY TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE
MOISTURE FILTERS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY…WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-121000-
/O.NEW.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.101212T0600Z-101213T1800Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PAOLI…SALEM…SCOTTSBURG…MADISON…
JASPER…MARENGO…TELL CITY…CORYDON…NEW ALBANY…
JEFFERSONVILLE…HAWESVILLE…HARDINSBURG…BRANDENBURG…
BEAVER DAM…LEITCHFIELD…ELIZABETHTOWN…FORT KNOX…
MOUNT WASHINGTON…SHEPHERDSVILLE…LOUISVILLE…LA GRANGE…
BEDFORD…NEW CASTLE…SHELBYVILLE…FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…
CYNTHIANA…TAYLORSVILLE…LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…
LEXINGTON…PARIS…CARLISLE…BARDSTOWN…SPRINGFIELD…
HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…HODGENVILLE…
LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…RICHMOND…MORGANTOWN…
BROWNSVILLE…MUNFORDVILLE…GREENSBURG…CAMPBELLSVILLE…
LIBERTY…STANFORD…RUSSELLVILLE…BOWLING GREEN…FRANKLIN…
SCOTTSVILLE…GLASGOW…TOMPKINSVILLE…EDMONTON…COLUMBIA…
JAMESTOWN…BURKESVILLE…ALBANY
301 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010 /201 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010/
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY.
* TIMING: AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 7AM
AND NOON EST SUNDAY MORNING AS DRYING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
* MAIN IMPAC
Ryan I am in Pikeville too.I hope we get hammered,with snow that is lol.
This is just stupid. I guess they’ll wait til we get about 6″ of snow then issue a wwa.
Crystal, it just depends on where you are at in Pike Co on the temps. I took my sons friend home about an hour ago. It was 47 at my home in Elkhorn, 39 on Right fork of Island Creek, and 52 in Pikeville. Anywhere their is still alot of snow cover on the ground it is cold.
Same here Crystal. I’ve been watching this storm since the last one died off, and if my oppinion matters, I’d say we will get a good “hammering”. Hopefully nothing “crippling” though..
I found Jackson lol heres Rolos song for the evening.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzhzCF77GDo
They’re issuing winter weather advisories for most of the area. WSW for the mountain counties. Snow accumulations 6-12″ in the higher elevations, 4-6 in the Va border counties, everybody else looks to be in the 2-4″ range.
Notice the big hole over much of the JKL area
http://www.wunderground.com/severe.asp
*rolls eyes*
Rolls first plate of waffles
Latest national radar shows the cold air in Missouri has all but caught the moisture..
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true
Going to be a fun night of tracking weather in good ole’ KY…
You are right.Let’s all go to Jackson lol.
Vinny says Lexington will get 3.3″ when all said and done…
GO STEELERS..!
Cool. I’m thinking somewhere around 3-5″.
Vinny says Pikeville will get 8.o” when all is said and done…
GO STEELERS..!
Chris, as always, thank you for your hard work for all of us! And thank you especially for this blog and the freedom to voice our thoughts on it. It is a gift that you give to all of us!
Rolo, please ignore the negativity that is sometimes directed toward you. Many of us ACTIVELY SEEK out your posts to see what both you and your Billygoat have to say, so we would be sad if you changed anything about the way you post!
And BubbaG, good to see you back!! Now, can you please let us know YOUR thoughts!? As you probably remember, I have family (both adults and teen drivers) who must be on the road for work. What about conditions for Lexington with BOTH storms?? I do appreciate your thoughts!
For everyone, please stay safe and warm! One of my dearest friends broke a rib while sledding last weekend, so I hope that you are safe in your fun times, too! I am praying for NO ICE!!!! A very Merry Christmas season to all!
Hey, welcome to the blog! From my understanding, a more southerly track of the low would result in increased totals for much of central KY, and therefore London I believe. A southerly track would also bring a quicker transition to snow.
The patchwork of NWS advisories once again has me questioning the value of these weather offices.
Thanks Chris for making sense of it all.
ROLO ROLO ROLO ROLO. Shut up Echo dont be jealous cause you aren’t rolo. Any possibility of Harlan County being upgraded to a winter storm warning, the virginia county 8 miles from my house is in a winter storm warning, so any thoughts?
COOL 🙂
JB’s old blog in Louisville is still up with an old post ‘sticking with 1 – 2 ” ‘.
Chris has kept us higher the whole time. NOW the NWS / Louisville is going with 2 – 4″. This is why I come here. Chris has the surreal connection to accuracy.
Also, Thanks Strummer for restoring some civility and compassion to the Rolo dialogue. Rolo and his forecast are such an important part of the character of this blog. Rolo! Get back here! Any insight on L’ville?
Winter Storm Warning issued for Floyd, Knott, Perry, Pike, Martin, Leslie, Letcher, Bell and Harlan Counties from 7am Sunday-7pm Monday.
It is obvious where the main low is located. I can see it over Iowa. There is rain in front of it & snow on the back side.
Jackson NWS days in their 3:55 PM update they are “getting ready to” issue warnings and advisories…They don’t want to shoot till they see the whites of their eyes. Did not know John Wayne even worked there…
In other news Hartline has been suspended for the bowl game. His career at UK is over!
1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA…WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY.
…………….
MAJOR,MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST VS. CHRIS’S…SAD,SAD,SAD,…I’LL STICK WITH CHRIS ON THIS ONE…
Is there a chance we will see more then 4 inches ? OHHHH please say yes…
I have been watching the St. Louis Missouri, Springfield, Illinois the were both at 42 an hour ago. it is now 37 there. temps will probably as chris said have a rapid drop. it hasn’t quite reached the indianapolis line yet. there still at 42
NWS Charleston is going with 6-8in and NWS Jackson is going with 4-6in for the Williamson area.
18z NAM snowfall map
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=JKL
It looks like the boys at the Weather Service have finally come on board with Chris. NOAA in Charleston, WV have issued a winter storm warning lasting until 1 A.M on Tuesday. It warns of 6 to 8 inches in the lowlands and a foot plus in the hills.
I have a question. What approximate time will the backslash snows be moving into the French lick/Orange County,Indiana area tomorrow?
Why’s anyone getting all bent out of shape over someone else talking about the weather, anyway? Can’t we all just have fun with it?
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